2021 Planning

Written by The Salamander on September 28 2020

Starting your pre-season early? Or just got some thoughts on next year you’re keen to share? Let us know below.

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110 thoughts on “2021 Planning”

  1. Major thing for mine at the moment is there seems to be alot of inflated averages in the midfield.

    Starting gun mids seem to work this year as result.

    Thinking we’ll have to look harder for value int 2021

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  2. Def started….using a blessed number of 5.5 already throwing up some interesting differences in comparison with year end values.

    Can anyone confirm the discounts for players that didn’t play at all (I believe 30%), and for less than 7 games I think it is….Rowell comes into play here.

    Maxy looking like $775k to start.

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    1. I’ve mentioned this before but discounts aren’t applied consistently based on the number of games missed. I think CD don’t like everyone starting with the same players, so they won’t give larger discounts to popular players.

      Using Rowell as an example, he only played 5 games but if they applied a 30% discount, I think you’d have a hard time finding a serious SC coach who wouldn’t start him. My guess is they give him a 15% discount and even then, IMO, he’s good value and worthy of a starting spot.

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      1. Actually, they do:

        Played 7 games or less = Approx 7% – 10% discount

        LTI (whole season) = Approx 15% – 20% discount

        2nd season with an LTI = Approx 30% discount

        You’re right though in saying the popular players get less of a discount due to them being popular.

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        1. No. They regularly don’t give the full discount for star players.

          They didn’t for GAJ, whenever he was injured, for starters.

          Nor did Docherty or Titch get their proper discounts last year either.

          Every year they have a list of people they don’t give full discounts for, and some of they mention why.

          It’s all so that we don’t all start with the same team.

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    2. I’ve done second draft of my team for next year
      but it’s more just a list of players i think will represent value.
      As DZ mentions the discounts aren’t consistantly applied.
      I gave Rowell a small discount and went with that.

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  3. With only 17 games this year I reckon there’s a fair chance the 7 game rule will be different in some way. My guess 5 or 6 games.

    Previously it has worked out like below:
    6/7 games = 10% discount
    4/5 games = 20%
    3 games = 20% if average is less than 50
    = 30% if ave 50+
    1/2 games = 40% if ave 70+
    = 30% if ave 50-69 as a rookie(1st year player maybe)
    = 20% if ave 50-69
    = 20% if ave less than 50 as a rookie
    0 games = 30%

    I found this on this SCTalk right after last season finished I reckon and for the majority it works like this but CD do make some exceptions like Docherty/Titch and probably Rowell as well next season.

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  4. I MUST remember that starting with Treloar, J Kelly & Fyfe costs me a trade each when they get injured and another trade each when I get sucked in to bringing them back in.
    I MUST remember………

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  5. How many of these players do you guys think will get fwd status next year? Or any others too?

    Fyfe, D. Martin, Dangerfield, R. Marshall, Dunkley, Coniglio, Petracca, Brayshaw, Bontempelli

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    1. Yeah, like Jim said, pretty much all them will have MID/FWD status bar Brayshaw, Petracca and Bontempelli (led Dogs CBAs for the second half of the season).

      Zorko will also be one to watch.

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  6. Don’t think Brayshaw and Tracca will qualify. As for the others, I think there are too many guns to have them all as forwards so I think CD will cull them with a formula only they know.

    Likely Dusty stays and Danger may come back as the two most likely L & L, Marshall a chance.

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  7. Dunks, Marshall, Dusty will all gain/maintain DPP. Fyfe and Danger are touch and go. They were hovering around 35%. Preuss May also gain it and he’d be a lock at F4.

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    1. Haha! This trade period is a hard time to be a Bombers fan hey Wighty?

      Nah, I think North will be the big rebuild club next year. I see Dons around 15th. We looked good with cohesion in the game plan this year with a pretty average list (e.g. vs Collingwood), that should improve next year to a degree. The culture-building aspect over this pre-season will be the biggest impact, and so long as we don’t go all ‘crows camp’ on them, it should be a good opportunity for the guys to totally refresh.

      We’ll have a bit of a restructure down back losing Saad’s ability to rebound, and be a bit light in forwards, but if Dodo brings in a decent inside mid over the break we won’t be hemorrhaging clearances.

      If that happens, McGrath, Shiel, Parish & (hopefully) Merrett as actual outside mids will be able to move the ball into the forward line better than they were able to this year. Big Drapes will impact the ability to get the hard ball out to them as well to a degree, though he did move a bit like a newborn giraffe at times this year!

      That said, we’ll probably focus on bringing in more little guys and fringe players as we are totally, definitely, 100% still in our premiership window. Go footy.

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  8. I hope you don’t mind, this will be the first time I actually start in Rd 1 so I have a few questions on how everyone prepares for next season:
    – How do you track/record your planned teams?
    – How do you structure your starting team?
    – How do you calculate/forecast player prices using their averages/stats?
    – How do you qualify future players who weren’t on your team this year?
    – How do you factor in Rookies/the Draft?

    Understanding of course that it’s all a bit of speculation at this stage!

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    1. Great questions. I can only suggest you read all the posts on here, particularly when 2021 prices come out. You will get to know what things like GnR, one up one down, loops, and a whole lot more mean.
      Way too much to explain in one reply.

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      1. But to answer some of your questions for you in order…..

        Once SC is open, you have unlimited trades to play with your team, allowing all sorts of potential teams to be played around with.

        Price movement projections are readily available through sites such as “too serious” that has projections for three weeks ahead.

        There is no right answer but in general, try to get 12-14 “keepers”, all gun players who you want to hold for the season into your starting team. Then look for the best rookies and any cheap fallen premiums to fill your team.

        Any future players are available as all teams are reset each year.

        All you will need to know about rookies and the draft will be clear well before the season starts, including starting prices.

        Hope that helps.

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        1. Just to expanded on a couple of Wighty points
          Your keepers should include 2-4 Captain options, guys you can give the Captain/Vice Captain too, and you generally pay through the nose for those guys. You’re getting double points for them so the extra cash is worth it.

          After that look for value, keepers that for some reason are a bit underprice.

          e.g Cripps is looking good for next year as he played hurt most of the year.

          Managing to find value in your starting team so you have 13 or 14 keepers versus 12 saves you having to upgrade a position or two, which ultimately saves you trades.

          Your keepers should be ultra durable, players that have a history of not missing games. The more stable your starting keepers are, the more you can use your trades to upgrade around them.

          Good rookies have high job security, it can be worth it to pay a bit more for rookies just so you know they are going to be available week to week.
          e.g Noah Anderson last year

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    1. I’m more thinking collective risk, him, Cripps and Rowell are all looking good for next season in terms of value, but is all three too much risk?

      Going to take it on a case by case bases and see how interrupted their pre-seasons are.
      Rowell shouldn’t miss any because he has had a longer time to recover

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    1. Obviously Dunkley is not there. My best team would be…

      Francis Hooker Ambrose
      Ridley Hurley Heppell
      Parish Merrett McGrath
      Tippa Stewart Stringer
      Snelling Wright Hind
      Draper Shiel Smith

      I/C Langford Caldwell Parish Zaharakis

      Goddard not in my side…Redman, Laverde, Gleeson (Dunkley)

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      1. Essendon have gone from having one of the fastest backlines to the slowest….No run whatsover in there. Amazing the difference 2 players can make. I think there’s a chance McGrath could go back

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  9. Does anyone know how pricing works for rookies on academy picks that get taken pre-draft?

    Alex Davis will go to Gold Coast pre-draft but would have been a top 10ish pick otherwise.

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  10. Laird a DM in 2021???…….Whitfield still a FM??? Thoughts please…. with any maybes and couldbes that mightbes (DPP) for 2021, that we haven’t already thought/mentioned.

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  11. OK…anyone else got a first draft for 2021 ?? Using the magic number of 5.5, and appropriate discounts that has been published elsewhere on here, here is draft 1……

    Howe, S Edwards, Laird, Rich, Lukosious, R/R/R

    Heppell, Jacobs, Rowell, Ziebell, Yeo, Cripps, Neale, R/R/R/R

    Gawn, Draper R

    Preuss, Cockatoo, Daniher, Heeney, Dunkley, Parish, R/R

    Estimated cash $4.4 k. Rookies all assumed $123.9k which may be optimistic.

    Ten rookies to start would be my fewest ever.

    Who is next to have a crack ?

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  12. LLOYD, WHITFIELD, LAIRD, RYAN, MCDONALD, greaves.

    NEALE, MITCHELL,OLIVER, rowell, Walsh, serong, hatley, Greene,

    GAWN, pruess.

    MARSHALL, daniher, brown, rozie, Hogan, rookie.

    strong defense, Marshall to cover preuss, stepping stones that can crack 100.

    All fwds are question marks so avoiding them to see who’s doing what.
    HAVEN’T LOOKED ENOUGH TO PRICE OUT PROPERLY, but a template I’m considering.

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    1. TOF,
      Like/have the first three in def atm.
      1/2 the mids too.
      Rucks will need to be watched preseason for TOG and 2nd ruck support.
      Fwds to be DPPs (aim….but it never usually happens lol)

      Looked at my last years 1st attempt, only had 7 the same for round 1. (Not including rookies)

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      1. Re forwards, danger always drops, who knows what dunkly will be doing, zorko can be shut down.
        Due to how rucks scored last season I think Marshall is the only LOCK so far. The rest are pretty even (except Dangerfield)

        The last few season for me have shown that there’s always bolters you need to jump on early in the fwds. I’m going to wait to see who they are.

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    2. Tof, I like the speculative pics of Daniher/Brown but will only start one of them. I can pass on Hogan. Which Greene ??
      Be interested to see how this team shapes up when prices come out. Using the magic number of 5.5 I think it might be valued at just short of $10m without any rookies.
      Let the fun begin !!

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        1. Read on another site that 3pm is the expected time to open.

          Wish the jerks at HS would just say that from the start…

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              1. Mate….no dumb questions on here. To be honest, I haven’t heard of SC Plus…I have SC Gold and suspect they are the same, just named differently.

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  13. LOCKED IN.

    LLOYD-Not having him hurts you.
    RYAN-Ready to explode!
    WHITFIELD-Not having him hurts you (if he doesn’t get injured)
    MCDONALD-Could be the player that hurts you.
    NEALE- To hard to get in, durability is off the charts.
    OLIVER-Ready to step up to next level(Durable).
    MACRAE-P.O.D? Surely he plays mid, which is a bigger lock as you can get.
    GAWN-Money saved by going cheaper DOES NOT help when Gawn get’s a 200 captain score!
    GRUNDY-He’s a ruck, no tag ,guaranteed 100 97% of the time
    MARSHALL-Another not tagged premium.

    I personally believe these are all must starts, therefore i am.
    The rest of the team doesn’t worry me too much, rookies come next then the stepping stones. will bank any left over cash for the fast starter break out.

    Thoughts? Any other player to replace these in their respective lines?Not looking for value, just reliable scores all season. (Mcdonald is riskyish but i think more risky not having him)

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    1. I was pondering Steele instead of Macrae. Was hoping for less tagging? roles now. Have to wait and see I s’pose.
      Ps MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL. Hope to have us all back online for 2021 season.

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      1. Time will tell.
        I think a lot of points will be down back this year. So many good defenders(105+ average) to choose from, not a lot can go wrong by going deep this season it seems to me.

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    2. Great bunch of players there Tof. By my calculations, it only leaves $4.357million for your remaining 21 players or $207.4k each on average. I’m going to include some of the likes of Heppell, Rowell, Hutchings, Ziebell. Impey, Daniher, as I believe they offer great value, and cash generation. I’m going to avoid Grawn as I’m sure they will again have the same bye, and be cheaper at some stage. Draper and Preuss both could break right out, and with Marshall fwd and Freo r/f Treacy a permanent c loop allowing Marshall to go into ruck for bye rounds, I have great flexibility.
      No doubt all will change dramatically by R1 !!

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        1. Hey Wighty!
          If you arent’ in the leading pack early you need to do a lot of work to catch up. And when you do it’s still another leap into the top few hundred.
          My aim is to have as many 100+(all but guaranteed player in my starting side) So avoiding soft tissue injury players, TAG susceptible or role changes. Now a couple of players(Whitfield, Mcdonald and Macrae have question marks over them, but… we know what they can do and if the aren’t injured and have their sc friendly roll they kill you not owning them)
          So i’m paying a premium for top line talent that has the best chance of scoring 100+ week after week. So many premiums score 50-60-70 pretty often , so i’m trying to cut that out as much as possible.
          I think the defense is key this year(might even go 5 deep).

          I’ll run danihers and browns all day if i can fit the above mentioned players into my side. They only have to score a couple of 100’s to upgrade to fallen dusty’s and dangers(which they most likely will at some point).

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  14. Ok…..here it is, 1st draft for 2021, …..note STC in next 5 – 10 minutes,

    Lloyd Laird Whitfield Markov Marchbank G-Barras Jones Highmore
    Neale Steele Oliver Rowell Heppell Sier Hately Carroll Sharp Bowery Davies
    Preuss Hickey Comben
    Dangerfield Sidebottom Marshall U-Hagen Kelly Cockatoo Durdin McCreery

    Only 110200 left………your appraisals please…….

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    1. not having a premium ruckman is a mistake, picking heppell sier and hately is also a mistake, not saying they wont score well but ultimately you want to have to make less trades throughout the year, so the less mid prices the better

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      1. Noted, thanks Josh.

        Have already made a couple of changes to have a supposedly starting 22.

        Out G-Barras In Hamill
        Out Carroll In DPP Dangerfield
        Out U-Hagen In Impey and Henry

        114oo ITB

        In regards to your ruck thoughts, I will probably do as you suggested, but not sure with which one yet, and which major premium to use (Lloyd, Steele eg.) to afford it.

        With regards to the mid-priced mids. I will probably windup keeping one and changing the other two, ie. one up and one down in value but again not sure which way yet.

        Cheers Josh…..roll on pre-season so we can get a look at them rookies.

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  15. Hey there, i have paid for SC Plus now also, but cannot for the life of me see where to get to the 2021 team picker? Any directions would be a huge help! Thanks!

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    1. I think log out of supercoach, then log back in. Go to your teams field page. Look for a little tab in a banner across the page just above your defenders.

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  16. laird whitfield stewart milera jones wehr
    neale oliver walsh cripss rowell phillips pedlar powell
    gawn pruess
    danger sidebottom marshall campbell cockatoo rowe

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  17. If anyone is wondering the supercoach magic number in 2021 seems to be 5372.763. I have tried this for about 25 players with 16 games played in 2020 and it has seemed to work!

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  18. Just read on the AFL site Comben 123k rookie(north Melbourne/last seasons loop)RUC/FWD may get a fwd gig.
    If he plays could give goldie a rest from time to time. Good for a score boost.

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    1. Definitely a bench option. Roos need forwards at the moment. They’re actually looking good with their new additions on the other areas of the ground.

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      1. Couldn’t agree more GP.. Powell looks exceptional. Good forward rookies are needed and dpp is a bonus Ziebell and Brown will help ,and at around 260k they present real value DD

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  19. Does Andrew Mcgrath (ess) break out this year 110+?
    No bias opinions (you know who i’m talking to lol). Genaral gut feelings.
    I say yes.

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    1. TOF,
      IMO, every team has one (at least) every year.
      They go from “almost there”, to “nearly there” and in some cases, back again. We often know them as the DPP Fwds or a m7/8.

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      1. I’m strongly considering Zerrett.
        Worried about Caldwell coming in and McGrath stepping it up a notch.
        I know he gets tagged but he still posted a 115ave. Worried about having points taken off him.
        Do people see Zerrett going 115 again? Right in his prime.

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        1. Zerrett is one of the samples/reasons why McGrath types don’t break out.
          Check stats and see how they influence each other. Was McGrath 100 if Zerrett was being tagged? Etc…

          Remember Smith too? Not mentioned this year????

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        2. He is on my upgrade list. Basically my starters i’m confident in, where my upgrade-list is a player I really like but have 1 or 2 question marks I want to get answers for.

          Is he going to improve his average and cost you more money later on?

          Remember with the inflation in the system players that hold their price are actually getting cheaper as the season goes on.

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    2. I think you’re 12-months too late he increased his ave by 21 last year. He might improve on that but I doubt that it will increase by more than 8.
      I could be wrong Essendon are a debacle atmo and very much a ‘departure club’ for genuine stars so there are gaps all over the field that need to be plugged and only 3 or 4 top level players in the squad so those 3 or 4 could all be massive

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      1. Your never too late to select a durable 110+ mid 😉
        Well, maby Neale at rounds 5-6 lol.

        I’ll pass on Zerrett. Think I’ll back in Macrae instead.
        My risky player(this season) along with Luke Mcdonald. At leased you can swap Macrae for almost anyone if injured. Full confidence in Mcdonald though.

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        1. WOW!
          That’s like deliberate risk taking with your starting premiums. That is the sort of move that has made an individual SC tens of thousands of dollars richer every year. It’s also the sort of move that has ruined tens of thousands of supercoach participants seasons before round 5.
          100% with you on McDonald but Macrae over Zerrett when Treloar has been added to the team and Smith, Lipinski, Vandermeer are all deserving more midfield minutes, sounds like cabin fever.

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          1. I didn’t select LLoyd last year due to Dawson?
            I didn’t select Gawn 2 years ago due to injury concern(ankle, pre season).
            And more examples, Danger, Fyfe, Oliver etc. But these guys just get it done if they don’t get injured.
            I’d much rather have Macrae go a 105 average as M7-8 than not have him averaging possibly 130. Way to much money needed to get him in if he’s doing that.
            But more importantly the damage is already done, the points lost is huge. Macrae goes for purple patches 140 3-4 weeks in a row, he just kills you not having him.
            If he drops to 500k, well you can still upgrade him to whomever is killing it.(not sideways, up only)

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  20. RE, Macrae.
    Surely the dogs don’t want another Dunkly situation on their hands and play him thru the centre.
    Every club would pay whatever, if he says he’s done being there.
    The upside is huge if he ends up being a POD keeping his mid minutes.

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    1. You are making complete and utter sense except for the “Surely the dogs” part.
      All bets are off when it comes to Mr Magnets.

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