2UP: MAR #1

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 4 2019

As we get closer to Rd1, our starting line-ups are slowly taking shape.  But there’s that one position that we still haven’t figured out.  It’s down to two players and we just can’t split them.

Type the players names into the comments below and the SCT Coaches will try and split them using the Thumbs UP/DOWN function……..

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210 thoughts on “2UP: MAR #1”

    1. I 100% want Oliver at some stage but Brayshaw seems like such good value,
      is there potential for both in the team?
      T/u potentially both
      T/d only one

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      1. Brayshaw higher risk but might just out score Oliver this yr and beyond. But which should you find a place for?

        TU – Brayshaw’s Higher Risk
        TD – Oliver’s Consistency

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        1. I want both Macca.

          I’m starting to get a few too many R13 Bye players.

          Oliver looks like he is over his shoulder problems.
          After watching all the JLT games this weekend, I really feel the midfield bulls will actually improve their output with more space to work in through the middle.

          Cripps and Oliver looked super impressive and I now have them at M1 and M2. J Kelly at M3.

          Neale is still on my radar. I just think he is more of a accumulator of points and doesn’t have the huge ceiling ( Captain option ) of the other three.

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          1. I’m thinking that everyone is so caught up in bye structure that there omitting pure guns just for 1 game. Think going heavy in round 13 players is possibly a good move so long as your prepared to sideways trade and don’t go extremely deep and prioritise rookies if possible from bye rounds 12/14.

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            1. Coaches need to remember the bye is 11 playing weeks from the start of the season and plenty of time to arrange side by bye time

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  1. I am going by who will maximise the most amount of points in the long run, with both having injury affected preseasons.
    Tu: Fyfe
    Td: Oliver

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    1. Its crazy people are discarding Fyfe. He is one of only few mids to go 180+. He played AFLX, and has a easy run of features before the bye. He had one minor sugery on the elbow, Oliver had 2 in his shoulders. Shoulders for an AFL player is more critical than an elbow. He is said to be ready by R1. I thought the vote would be closer than that? Love the ruthlessness of coaches this year 🙂

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      1. Fyfe has burnt people a couple of times. Oliver is the people’s champion (smiley face) if he ever gets to do a pre season…. Records falling.

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        1. Fyfe just has missed to many games the last five years and Oliver has had a consistent game and scoring record. Fyfe has to earn coaches trust back through games played.

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  2. I think Z Williams, Roberton & Newman can finish top 10 Def.
    Is starting all 3?
    T/U worth the risk
    T/U asking for trouble

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    1. Watch list still has two weeks. History shows 3 mid priced players on one line invites trouble, eg 1 fails (scoring or maintaining position) this doesn’t mean it won’t work.

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  3. Danger, menegola, smith, heeney. Is justifiable since not much else on offer up fwd so can’t really stuff it up?

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    1. The difference in the vote is Brayshaw’s ability to continue on from last years finish and ave 110 whereas Crouch and Oliver have shown previously

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    1. T Kelly the better option. Gazza playing forward he’ll continue mid time. Proven reliable . Top 10 Fwd this year I reckon

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        1. Don’t read anything into his JLT game. Geelong used alot of the young guys at centre bounces and Kelly spent alot of the game jogging around on a half forward.

          Kelly comfortably outscores billings and worpel

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    1. That’s a tough one! I rate these two about equal:
      dusty = higher scoring potential
      crouch = more consistent

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    1. Constable was an outright star in JLT last year but didn’t get a game in the real stuff. Whats different at sleepy hollow this year?

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    1. Both not very good options with short and Sicily in them, maybe change the back line option to Willams, mills, smith or Roberton

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  4. At this stage, given the rookies we’ve seen so far.
    T/U – Start Sam Walsh
    T/D – He is overpriced – go for the cheaper options for similar output

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      1. I think he will be a star too. Currently in my team but if other rookies are more promising, he will be out. Hoping the Father will have some great article about projections etc coming up soon as I’m a bit too time poor to do the maths.

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      2. Don’t think it’s that straightforward. I’d still go cheaper if there are enough decent cows around.
        While there is no doubt he looks the goods, will be playing in the guts and has decent JS, there is no way known he’ll be able to keep that up for an entire AFL season. It’ll be another huge step up even from JLT to the real deal.
        If you do start him, I’d be cashing in as soon as you’ve made enough. You’d think he’ll likely be ‘managed’ at some point and maybe early. And maybe often.

        I am playing devil’s advocate to a degree, but there are other things to consider than simply ‘he’s a star’. He oozes class and has massive potential but don’t forget, he hasn’t played a game yet!

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        1. Great comments AS. I have him at the moment but would hope a cheaper option jumps up ovet the next weeks. I hate going over 123k for rookies.

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        2. Reckon his week to week floor is about 60, and he has the potential to tonne up in a good week. With his ability and engine, the ideal scenario is he pumps out two 90+ scores in a 3 week period, surrounded by some 75ish scores, and shoots up to $400k or more.

          As soon as that BE catches up you cash him in for an easy premo upgrade. If the timing is right with some premos bottoming out, he may even generate enough cash for two upgrades in the back or forward lines.

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        3. 100% agree with you. It is only JLT and also he played a young Essendon side without a real ruck and missing most guns for half the game. I want to see more from him. We are all just all excited and are hoping for another T. Kelly but maybe we should wait JLT2 to see if he backs it up? 100k extra is just a lot of money.

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          1. A bit disingenuous. He worked over those “guns” while they were on the field as well. And he wasn’t getting silver service from the number one ruck either.

            He’s going to play an outside linking role, with occasional appearances at the stoppages. His endurance, pace, smarts and skills will have him racking up 20+ touches most weeks, and his natural instinct is to move the play forward, so he’ll gain plenty of metres too. Inside 50’s, delivering to some quality marking talls = goal assists. Lays very good tackles and ran down Saad late in the game. Cut through traffic and could have had two goals to his name as well (accuracy will improve once he gets one on the board and the pressure lifts).

            Doubt he’ll be a keeper, but you’re not replacing him with the next best mid rookie option, you’re replacing him with, perhaps, the 5th best. He’ll be a significantly better choice than that player, making more money and scoring more points in the process.

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    1. depending on your premo choices, you pretty much have to … either that or you are banking on cheaper options on the lines and prayinng for breakouts and / or only running 1 of the big rucks …

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    2. You can run as many as you want on each line, as long as there are enough good ones to go around. So if there are at least 5 good rookies on each of those lines with decent job security named in round 1, you can have three on the field.

      In all honesty, the whole ‘team balance’ thing is massively overrated – the scoring system doesn’t care which part of the ground the points come from, and neither should you. What *isn’t* overrated is building your team structure around the available rookies, rather than the other way round.

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      1. Premiums often do when it comes to the JLT. He’ll be fine in round 1.

        Come on people, we have this exact same conversation every year: “OMG Premium X only scored 60 in the JLT… he’s cooked!”. And every year we see the same result.

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    1. LOL I stand by my comment from January that all of the data related to Zac Merrett shows a downwards trajectory in SC scores and none of the changes at bomberland for 2019 suggest a reversal in that trend, after only 1 JLT game it doesn’t seem so controversial anymore.

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      1. Alf Art.

        Experience says don’t pick Premos based on JLT performances.

        Some players get extra midfield time,( Taranto/B Crouch and Mc Grath are prime examples of this) some are played out of position. (Whitfield)

        JLT is most useful for assessing Rookies and to see if some players are over injuries and look to be back to some sort of form.

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      1. Probably 🙂 I guess the question should have been more like: “Macrae Libba and expensive rook” versus “two of the low-mid 500k mids plus a cheap rook”

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  5. Any support for Lobb at R2, swinging forward and upgrading a forward rookie to Gawn or a better performing ruck later in the season?

    Feels a bit better than locking in Goldy at R2 and knowing that it may be a sideways trade to the Bearded One if he continues to knock out a 120+ average.

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      1. Still means Goldy has to go for Gawn at some stage.

        My thinking is that the odds of picking the cheap ruckman who makes $200k is pretty slim. So rather than trying to, take a solid ruck/F6, and bring in Gawn as an upgrade for one of the forward rookies later.

        I’m not convinced myself, just mulling over it.

        Grundy, Lobb (Bines)
        Danger, Heeney, Kelly, Setters, Rookie, Rookie (Rookie, Rookie)

        Round 6-8, upgrade Setterfield to Gawn, and swing Lobb forward where he eventually becomes F6 while providing injury cover for the rucks.

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        1. Blue Balls.

          I’m not against this idea. But only if Sandi and Darcy go down with LTI’s.

          Lobb will need to ruck most of the time to average 95+ ( think Westhoff last year) to be a forward keeper. 90 maybe good enough for F6 , if he provides ruck cover a couple of times.

          I just don’t think Freo’s midfield is strong enough to provide him with enough supply to average this as a full time forward.

          I like the plan, It would just need a few things to happen to make it work in my book.

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  6. TU: Grundy, Gawn, Macrae , Whitfield and Hurn..with $16,900 cash….or
    TD: Grundy, Goldy, Macrae, Lloyd and Laird with $30,700 cash

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    1. Both JLT2 will tell.
      Crouch will probably get injured and YoYo will star in roll reversal. (Last year it was Redden not Sheed until JLT3 who had been staring before YoYo took over.)

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  7. Those who have been around here for a little while are probably aware that my approach to the game is a little… different. If I were to write a ‘How to play like The Salamander’ post, would you be interested in reading it?

    TU: Sure, sounds interesting.
    TD: No, that’s self-indulgent rubbish and you know it.

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  8. Still remember getting burnt paying overs for Dangerfield a year or so ago to kick off the season and then him dropping dramatically in price after he couldn’t get the unachievable numbers he needed to breakeven.

    My concern is Grundy potentially being in the same boat… is his scoring output sustainable at his hefty starting price??? (He is $58k more expensive than Cripps)

    Considering waiting for one of the big two rucks to drop in price (Grundy/Gawn), build up Goldy, then sideways trade.

    R1 = ???
    R2 = Goldstein

    TU: Start with Grundy @ R1
    TD: Start with Gawn @ R1

    Or is this crazy talk

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    1. I’ve found that this year as opposed to others, there are so many highly priced players, that if you don’t start most of them, you will need a ton of cash to get even 2 of them in if there going ok. Most years there was 2 maby 3 super expensive players you could gamble on not picking them, There are so many this year you can’t afford to chase them all realistically. I’m just paying up, knowing i can downgrade them easier and whenever rather than hoping any of them drop enough early on to not miss them when bottoming out.

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  9. If Archie and Clarke are named for round 1, I’m seriously looking at the following ruck setup: Mumford, A. Smith (Clarke).

    Have I completely lost the plot?

    TU: Yes, you have.
    TD: No… it’s bold, but I like it.

    Comment: You never had the plot to begin with 😛

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  10. David Cuningham (CARL) DEF, $250,100. Slated to rotate between the midfield and forward line. Scored 100 in JLT1.

    Assume for a moment that he goes similarly well in JLT2. Are you interested?

    TU: Yes
    TD: No

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  11. Will Cousins produce a similar output to Worpel this season?

    T/U Yes (saving me $175,800)
    T/D No, pay for Worpel… he’ll fill the void left by Mitchell

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  12. Another possible ruck setup:

    Goldstein, Mumford (a playing R3 – probably Clarke or A. Smith, depending on round 1 teams)

    TU: Not as crazy as the last one.
    TD: Still don’t like it.

    Comment: I liked your earlier setup of Mumford, A. Smith (Clarke) better.

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    1. You seem to be toying with and trying a lot of ruck combos.
      Have you actually tried Grundy/gawn/goldstein? To see if you gotta team your happy with, or chasing value no matter what?

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      1. Chasing value no matter what. I know it’s not a popular opinion, but history says Grundy and Gawn won’t back it up. Maybe it really will be different this time, but, with history saying what it does, I’m willing to bet otherwise.

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        1. Lobb, Clark, Mumford. Lycette f-4 .(danger, smith, heeney.).
          Obviously don’t know your team set up, but with cheap rucks i’d go 4-5 deep in the forward line so as to not play rookies.
          Ryder is injured again and probably will keep getting so.
          This is just an idea of how i would try to capitalize on it with also covering myself with dpp’s.

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          1. Officially I don’t have a team set up as yet, as I have been deliberately avoiding putting one together until after the JLTs (so as to avoid becoming too wedded to a particular player or structure before I have a proper gauge on the rookie situation).

            My read on it so far is that the forward line is looking a bit thin as far as decent rookies go, so I have been starting to think about the idea of stacking the forward line (potentially as many as five premiums, plus Setterfield on the field). I’ll need to see a bit more of Port Adelaide’s setup, but I’m not necessarily opposed to the Lycett idea. I’m not sold on Lobb, however, as his best scores come when he’s playing in the ruck, and, given that he’s behind Sandilands and Darcy at Fremantle, I suspect he’ll be spending most of his time playing forward.

            As you can probably guess from looking at my other ruck set-up posts, at his price I’m definitely sold on Mumford, as long as I can cover him for the first two weeks.

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            1. Not sure about your love for Mumford……..yet!
              JLT2 will tell whether it’ll be a good or risky call.
              But i do agree with your more shared mobility assessment.

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              1. You’ll regret not having at least one of Grundy or Gawn.

                Grundy is still only 24 entering his prime. Expensive yes but worth it IMO.

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    2. I think just go for a set and forget option on rucks…I’ve been burnt a few times going for B grade ruck options (like Sauce Jacobs last year) that put out scores of 60 and went backwards big time whilst the opposition had Grundy or Gawn putting out 120s.

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      1. I would, but I have no idea who the top two rucks are going to be. Now, at this point a lot of people are probably going to be screaming “BUT WE DO KNOW WHO THEY’LL BE! IT’S GRUNDY AND GAWN!!!”. The thing is, we don’t know that. It’s possible that they will be the top two again, but history says they almost certainly won’t be. I’ve been around here long enough to see this same basic conversation get repeated over and over each year. Heading into 2016, Goldstein was a must-have, having averaged 129 the previous year. His average dropped 21 points (and no, this had nothing to do with Preuss – he didn’t burst onto the scene until the following year). Then in 2017, anyone who didn’t start Gawn was supposedly nuts. He went on to average 92. And then there was last year, when Kreuzer and Ryder were to only two rucks worth trusting. I shouldn’t need to remind people how that worked out.

        So, who will it be this year ? Like I said, I have no idea. If I try and guess, I’m probably going to end up getting it wrong, and have to trade them out at some stage. So, if it’s going to cost me a couple of trades anyway, why not save some money upfront? At the very least, I’ll be coming out ahead (likely way ahead) on a points-per-dollar-spent basis. And since total points = points-per-dollar-spent x dollars-spent, than can only be a good thing.

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        1. The difference is that grundy is a mid-fielder practically. I think that needs to be taken strongly into consideration when pondering if he will back it up over other rucks of previous years. Or maby not, but that’s what i tell myself(smiley face)

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  13. Is Macrae worth the high price tag?
    (neale/kelly seems as good of value for 80k less)

    TU: Yes get him NOW

    TD: Not Yet he will drop $$$ find the value

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    1. I’ve been weighing this up too but leaning to a ‘no’ after seeing the taggers coming his way in the first few rounds.

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  14. Would love your thoughts.

    T/U – Grundy, Miles, Roberton ($17,300 LIB)
    T/D – Goldstein, Kelly, Collins ($10,300 LIB)

    cheers.

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