Cow Talk Round 9

Written by Father Dougal on May 24 2017

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Between the byes and limited options it feels like the question is who can you downgrade rather than who do you want to downgrade. I remember once upon a time there were defenders that we could trade in for our ripe defender cows, who cost less and would play somewhat regularly. Those were the days.

In keeping with Thommo’s theme of songs for each write up, I will list a song I feel is somehow appropriate for each cow.

When looking at projections, remember that a score over or under a player’s current average will affect not just the next week but the ones after it since their average, and thus the projections, will move along with the current week. If you think their current average is not a good predictor of future performance, take that into account when you plan.

Also, don’t forget that any cow is capable of a shock high or low score. Extra so if they have had one in the past. Every week I am reminded how these numbers are just a help in making decisions, and not predictions of what will actually happen.

This season I am including past weeks and more weeks ahead. After spending all that time on growth patterns it would be silly not to include the data needed to see them! I have also put historical numbers in gray, so it is easy to see projections vs reality.

Defenders

Andy Otten – Since I Held You (The Cars)  Appears likely to hold his value up to his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 45 123,900
2 108 123,900
3 98 123,900
4 98 203,800
5 101 286,300
6 61 344,300
7 69 370,000
8 56 376,400
9 72 360,400
10 78.7 353,900 Dockers
11 78.7 353,381 -519 -519 Cats
12 78.7 363,110 9,729 9,210 Saints
13 373,264 10,154 19,364
14 78.7 373,264 0 19,364 Hawk
15 78.7 380,758 7,494 26,858 Blues


Curtly Hampton –
Another One Bites the Dust (Queen) – Not likely to drop in price for several weeks.


Thomas Stewart –
Money for Nothing (Dire Straights) It is actually possible he has topped out. This would be a great time for him to discover his inner Nick Newman and put up a big score. Another happy R12 bye player.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 57 117,300
2 60 117,300
3 22 117,300
4 53 148,900
5 70 170,300
6 68 190,700
7 225,900
8 46 225,900
9 52 249,044
10 53.0 257,600 Power
11 53.0 257,476 -124 -124 Crows
12 260,508 3,032 2,908
13 53.0 260,508 0 2,908 Eagles
14 53.0 263,191 2,683 5,591 Dockers
15 53.0 265,171 1,980 7,571 Giants


Andrew McGrath –
With or Without You (U2) Could easily start bleeding cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 83 211,800
2 56 211,800
3 62 211,800
4 97 246,500
5 82 278,100
6 89 313,200
7 350,700
8 66 350,700
9 59 364,300
10 74.3 364,400 Tigers
11 74.3 357,821 -6,579 -6,579 Giants
12 74.3 356,646 -1,175 -7,754 Power
13 362,583 5,937 -1,817
14 74.3 362,583 0 -1,817 Swans
15 74.3 366,964 4,381 2,564 Lions


Caleb Marchbank –
Good Riddance (Time of your Life)  (Green Day) – Has the R11 bye and looks likely to drop in price. Not urgent to get rid, but seems ready to go. 

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 97 236,100
2 82 236,100
3 56 236,100
4 74 279,600
5 76 301,100
6 69 314,600
7 108 329,800
8 63 356,700
9 61 370,000
10 76.2 376,600 Roos
11 367,258 -9,342 -9,342
12 76.2 367,258 0 -10,337 Giants
13 76.2 366,263 -995 -4,281 Suns
14 76.2 372,319 6,057 189 Tigers
15 76.2 376,789 4,470 3,488 Crows

 

Nick Newman– I’m not your Stepping Stone (The Monkeys) I somehow messed up his historical prices last week, which had him too high to start, and thus growing less than he will. I suspect nobody sold him last week so I claim no harm no foul. I wouldn’t even dream of selling him before R14, and bye then (ha ha) we may be ready to just keep him. Or not, but with three more weeks of data we’ll have a much better idea. I am boggled that a guy who score a 151 in his fifth week will have yet more money to make when the 151 leaves his three round average.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 123,900
2 73 123,900
3 105 123,900
4 80 126,900
5 206,700
6 59 206,700
7 261,400
8 151 261,400
9 93 322,000
10 93.5 372,900 Hawks
11 425,773 52,873 52,873
12 93.5 425,773 0 52,873 Dogs
13 93.5 439,140 13,367 66,240 Tigers
14 93.5 449,228 10,088 76,328 Bombers
15 93.5 456,672 7,445 83,772 Demons

 

Midfielders

Sam Powell-Pepper – I Get By With a Little Help From My Friends (The Beatles) –  Helping his friends out in the bye for sure. If you still own Sergeant Powell-Pepper, I’d keep him until R14 since his bye is in the past.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 78 135,300
2 90 135,300
3 51 135,300
4 41 198,000
5 55 227,500
6 97 233,800
7 60 258,700
8 70.0 285,700
9 311,900
10 67.8 311,900 Cats
11 67.8 318,407 6,507 6,507 Hawks
12 67.8 326,666 8,259 14,766 Bombers
13 67.8 331,758 5,092 19,858 Lions
14 67.8 335,515 3,758 23,615 Pies
15 67.8 338,288 2,773 26,388 Tigers

Sammo Petrevski-Seton – Raindrops Keep Fallin’ on my Head  (B.J. Thomas) Still a danger of a bad BE one round before his bye. Now a certainly of a bad BE one round before his bye. Ick. I’d be very tempted to sell him before his price can drop if you don’t really need him R13.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 59 189,300
2 51 189,300
3 116 189,300
4 49 240,900
5 49 274,400
6 78 298,400
7 134 298,700
8 59 337,200
9 58 369,500
10 72.6 384,700 Roos
11 368,477 -16,223 -16,223
12 72.6 368,477 0 -16,223 Giants
13 72.6 362,552 -5,925 -22,148 Suns
14 72.6 364,674 2,121 -20,026 Tigers
15 72.6 366,239 1,566 -18,461 Crows

Jake Barrett –  Welcome to the Pleasuredome (Frankie Goes to Hollywood) –  At last a third midfield cow to write about. Wow, did that take a long time! He still has enough money left to make that I would hold him through the byes and see how he is doing R14. I’m hoping he puts up a big score this week against the Pies.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 46 127,900
2 50 127,900
3 74 127,900
4 170,600
5 170,600
6 170,600
7 60 170,600
8 59 208,200
9 87 239,600
10 62.7 268,800 Pies
11 291,469 22,669 22,669
12 62.7 291,469 0 22,669 Dockers
13 62.7 309,835 18,366 41,035 Power
14 62.7 312,533 2,698 43,733 Giants
15 62.7 314,524 1,991 45,724 Bombers

Rucks

Jarrod Witts – Learning to Fly (Pink Floyd)I’m debating if he should be declared a steer and removed from Cow Talk. If you own him keep him through the byes, at least.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 81 217,600
2 100 217,600
3 114 217,600
4 79 292,800
5 91 347,000
6 73 383,300
7 115 391,300
8 97 413,700
9 432,100
10 93.8 432,461 Demons
11 93.8 455,564 23,103 23,103 Eagles
12 93.8 463,133 7,569 30,672 Hawks
13 93.8 467,269 4,136 34,809 Blues
14 93.8 470,322 3,053 37,861 Saints
15 93.8 472,575 2,253 40,114 Roos

 

Braydon Preuss – MTA (Kingston Trio) – Ok, I had totally not connected the “each player gets a song” thing to last week’s write-up until I got here. Easiest selection of the week. If only he would return…..  The City of Boston metro, aka the MTA, actually calls its fare cards “Charlie Cards” after the bloke in the song. Amuses me to no end.

Forwards

Kayne “Shonky Smurf” Turner – One More Minute (Weird Al Yankovic) –  Making money and a R12 bye, what more could you want? I’m still bitter.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 56 17,100
2 71 17,100
3 55 17,100
4 49 208,100
5 41 231,800
6 61 236,100
7 86 241,600
8 72 262,400
9 87 291,100
10 64.2 324,200 Blues
11 64.2 338,848 14,648 14,648 Tigers
12 346,189 7,340 21,989
13 64.2 346,189 0 21,989 Saints
14 64.2 341,444 -4,745 17,244 Dogs
15 64.2 337,942 -3,502 13,742 Suns

 

Will Hoskin-Elliot – Crying in the Rain (The Everly Brothers) With his R13 bye he will leave a lot of teams either this week or before R13. I am hoping he puts up a big score vs the Lions. If it doesn’t rain.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 88 213,300
2 120 213,300
3 71 213,300
4 70 282,500
5 51 325,200
6 125 326,200
7 65 350,500
8 75 366,500
9 71 388,400
10 81.8 380,900 Lions
11 81.8 382,725 1,825 1,825 Dockers
12 81.8 387,096 4,371 6,196 Demons
13 395,130 8,034 14,230
14 81.8 395,130 0 14,230 Power
15 81.8 401,059 5,929 20,159 Hawks

 

Daniel Butler – Rye or the Kaiser (Weird Al Yankovic) The obvious song would have been Eye of the Tiger, but Butler is not worthy, so he gets the Weird Al parody version instead. Take that Danno! The sad thing is that he might be worth holding because of his R12 bye.  When the 36 goes away he should make some more cash. Very much a case of doing with him however works for your team.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 96 123,900
2 65 123,900
3 79 123,900
4 64 198,800
5 64 239,700
6 54 269,600
7 57 280,100
8 36 285,000
9 275,100
10 64.4 275,100 Bombers
11 64.4 273,235 -1,865 -1,865 Roos
12 275,149 1,914 49
13 64.4 275,149 0 49 Swans
14 64.4 289,221 14,072 14,121 Blues
15 64.4 299,606 10,385 24,506 Power

 

Dan Houston – Just When I Needed You Most (Randy Vanwarmer) Appears to have lost his job right when he would be most needed post his R9 bye.

Cam McCarthy – One of these Days (Pink Floyd) Saw him interviewed after his match, and my takeaway was that he has a cheesy mustache; which I assume he has in order to try and look older. On any normal bloke it would be serious chick repellent, but since he plays for the Dockers, I expect it will have little if any effect. Oh, price wise, he is ready to slowly lose cash if he keeps up the 60ish score. Playing forward, he could pump out a ton and make more, or choke and make less.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 36 203,600
2 28 203,600
3 53 203,600
4 100 202,800
5 72 230,600
6 78 271,000
7 73 311,500
8 66 329,700
9 61 339,900
10 63.0 340,100 Crows
11 63.0 335,761 -4,339 -4,339 Pies
12 63.0 331,220 -4,541 -8,880 Lions
13 328,761 -2,459 -11,339
14 63.0 328,761 0 -11,339 Cats
15 63.0 326,946 -1,815 -13,154 Saints

Blake Hardwick – Jerkin’ back ‘n’ Forth (Devo) Joins this week as he is finally moving into the vicinity of ripe. Should go up decently before his bye when the 32 leave his three round average.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 134,900
2 134,900
3 134,900
4 63 134,900
5 65 134,900
6 77 134,900
7 74 191,000
8 32 237,600
9 55 256,800
10 61.0 261,400 Dockers
11 61.0 258,942 -2,458 -2,458 Cats
12 61.0 270,066 11,124 8,666 Saints
13 280,953 10,886 19,553
14 61.0 280,953 0 19,553 Crows
15 61.0 288,987 8,034 27,587 Pies

James Parsons – The Waiting (Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers) Added him in even though he is far from ripe, because of the song thing. The waiting is indeed the hardest part. At least he has the R12 bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 117,300
2 117,300
3 60 117,300
4 68 117,300
5 117,300
6 117,300
7 19 117,300
8 38 152,300
9 47 168,000
10 46.4 170,500 Power
11 46.4 184,452 13,952 13,952 Crows
12 198,496 14,044 27,996
13 46.4 198,496 0 27,996 Eagles
14 46.4 208,593 10,097 38,093 Dockers
15 46.4 216,044 7,451 45,544 Giants

 

Other cow stuff: Song for the season so far is Where have all the flowers rookies gone. 

If you think I missed anyone important please let me know in the comments. I keep looking at this various cows not yet included and wonder where all the profit is going to come from. I already started lowering my standards.

Don’t forget the Craggy Island guarantee, all predictions wrong or double your money back!

Jarrod BerryThe Loophole* (Garfunkel & Oates) – Added, thanks Naut.

*Explicit lyrics, not safe for work.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 139,800
2 139,800
3 32 139,800
4 29 139,800
5 14 139,800
6 62 136,900
7 60 147,900
8 71 170,000
9 75 211,400
10 49.0 248,000 Pies
11 270,021 22,021 22,021
12 49.0 270,021 0 22,021 Dockers
13 49.0 276,458 6,437 28,458 Power
14 49.0 269,609 -6,849 21,609 Giants
15 49.0 264,554 -5,055 16,554 Bombers

 

Tim TarantoTiptoe Through the Tulips (Tiny Tim) – Added, thanks Dermot

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj Next
1 44 207,300
2 75 207,300
3 49 207,300
4 60 228,300
5 250,800
6 86 250,800
7 66 272,100
8 82 295,700
9 81 322,400
10 67.9 340,100 Eagles
11 67.9 353,997 13,897 13,897 Bombers
12 67.9 357,950 3,954 17,850 Blues
13 355,013 -2,938 14,913
14 67.9 355,013 0 14,913 Lions
15 67.9 352,845 -2,168 12,745 Cats
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13 thoughts on “Cow Talk Round 9”

  1. As long as Witts averaged north of 90, I’m keeping him. Unless another ruck clearly starts to average 15-20 points more than him.

    The points/$ value is insane.

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      1. More had Sandi->Gawn pegged to be honest.

        Whilst averaging slightly less, he is more durable than Sandi. One more round earlier and Gawn would have had two price drops and would be a direct swap for Sandi on the Rd13 bye, which would have been awesome. However he’ll still have a BE of 200 that week 🙁

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    1. Good catch! I will add him in. I won’t be able to run his numbers until 3ish I expect, but I can put them up before the lockout.

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      1. Appreciate the tables as well, super handy. Any chance of getting Berry in there whilst you’re doing Taranto? Only 12% ownership and still a couple of weeks away, so no problems if too much hassle. Cheers!

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  2. Great idea with the song tittles FD! but of course you missed Brett Eddy – Wish you were here (multiple artists)

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