Elite Numbers ’19 – Dayne Beams (COL)

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 11 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Has Beams got one more big Supercoach season left in him?

 

Premium history (Avg>100):

2011: 100.79 from 14

2012: 122.90 from 21

2013: 102.43 from 7

2014: 115.53 from 19

2015: 113.44 from 16

2017: 101.42 from 19

2018: 102.71 from 21

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 120.38 from 8 (low of 80 and a high of 17, 3/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)

Bris: 96 from 3 (low of 62 and a high of 117, 1/3 below 100)

Carl: 104.38 from 8 (low of 65 and a high of 148, 3/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Coll: 111.25 from 4 (low of 102 and a high of 127, 1/4 120+)

Ess: 95.8 from 10 (low of 37 and a high of 146, 5/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

Freo: 127.33 from 6 (low of 115 and a high of 146, 0/6 below 100, 4/6 120+)

Geel: 104.57 from 7 (low of 58 and a high of 143, 3/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

GC: 112.5 from 8 (low of 73 and a high of 144, 3/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)

GWS: 102 from 6 (low of 12 and a high of 134, 1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

Haw: 116.6 from 5 (low of 92 and a high of 162, 1/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

Melb: 107.8 from 5 (low of 59 and a high of 148, 2/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

NM: 100.5 from 8 (low of 60 and a high of 166, 4/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

Port: 111.14 from 7 (low of 66 and a high of 179, 3/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

Rich: 103 from 7 (low of 69 and a high of 145, 4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

StK: 115.29 from 7 (low of 69 and a high of 144, 1/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

Syd: 132.6 from 5 (low of 96 and a high of 170, 1/5 below 100, 3/5 120+)

WC: 114 from 8 (low of 82 and a high of 128, 2/8 below 100, 6/8 120+)

WB: 99.8 from 5 (low of 63 and a high of 137, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

MCG: 108.16 from 43 (17/43 below 100, 16/43 120+)

2011: 90.38 from 8

2012: 114.31 from 13

2013: 97.4 from 5

2014: 116 from 13

2015: 89 from 1

2017: 137.5 from 2

2018: 83 from 1

 

Gabba: 103.97 from 30 (12/30 below 100, 13/30 120+)

2011: 0 from 0

2012: 109 from 1

2013: 0 from 0

2014: 0 from 0

2015: 125.86 from 7

2017: 96.82 from 7

2018: 96.73 from 11

 

Interstate: 113.03 from 37 (9/37 below 100, 13/37 120+)

2011: 150 from 2

2012: 137.2 from 5

2013: 115 from 2

2014: 106.25 from 4

2015: 102.63 from 8

2017: 110.14 from 7

2018: 105.44 from 9

 

MCG Wins: 110.25 from 28 (10/28 below 100, 12/28 120+)

2011: 87 from 7

2012: 117.7 from 10

2013: 106 from 3

2014: 122.88 from 8

2015: 0 from 0

2017: 0 from 0

2018: 0 from 0

 

Gabba Wins: 131.71 from 7 (0/7 below 100, 5/7 120+)

2011: 0 from 0

2012: 109 from 1

2013: 0 from 0

2014: 0 from 0

2015: 141 from 1

2017: 138.33 from 3

2018: 128.5 from 2

 

MCG Losses: 104.27 from 15 (7/15 below 100, 4/15 120+)

2011: 114 from 1

2012: 103 from 3

2013: 84.5 from 2

2014: 105 from 5

2015: 89 from 1

2017: 137.5 from 2

2018: 83 from 1

 

Gabba Losses: 95.52 from 23 (12/23 below 100, 8/23 120+)

2011: 0 from 0

2012: 0 from 0

2013: 0 from 0

2014: 0 from 0

2015: 123.33 from 6

2017: 81.25 from 8

2018: 89.67 from 9

 

Wins: 116.98 from 54 (14/49 below 100, 25/49 120+)

2011: 99.77 from 13

2012: 123.94 from 16

2013: 103.5 from 4

2014: 122.4 from 10

2015: 126 from 2

2017: 126.5 from 4

2018: 128.2 from 5

 

Losses: 102.95 from 63 (25/63 below 100, 21/63 120+)

2011: 114 from 1

2012: 119.6 from 5

2013:101 from 3

2014:107.89 from 9

2015: 111.64 from 14

2017: 94.73 from 15

2018: 94.75 from 16

 

Pre Bye: 104.06 from 54 (21/54 below 100, 17/54 120+)

2011: 87 from 8

2012: 109.9 from 10

2013: 0 from 0

2014: 122.57 from 7

2015: 114.1 from 10

2017: 104.38 from 8

2018: 90 from 11

 

Post Bye: 114.03 from 63 (18/63 below 100, 29/63 120+)

2011: 119.17 from 6

2012: 134.73 from 11

2013: 102.43 from 7

2014: 111.42 from 12

2015: 112.33 from 6

2017: 99.27 from 11

2018: 116.7 from 10

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 29.14

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 126.9 from 10 (low of 102 and a high of 148, 0/10 below 100, 6/10 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 30: 80.73 from 11 (low of 37 and a high of 130, 8/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)

Kicks: 15.71

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 16: 119.92 from 12 (low of 85 and a high of 148, 1/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 16: 79.78 from 9 (low of 37 and a high of 129, 7/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

Handballs: 13.43

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 14: 121.11 from 9 (low of 73 and a high of 148, 2/9 below 100, 6/9 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 14: 88.92 from 12 (ow of 37 and a high of 130, 6/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

Marks: 5.43

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 6: 117.67 from 9 (low of 69 and a high of 148, 1/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 6: 91.5 from 12 (low of 37 and a high of 143, 7/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

Contested Possessions: 11.19

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 12: 132.38 from 8 (low of 111 and a high of 148, 6/12 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 12: 84.46 from 13 (low of 37 and a high of 130, 8/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Tackles: 2.95

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 103.17 from 12 (low of 59 and a high of 143, 5/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 3: 102.11 from 9 (low of 37 and a high of 148, 3/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

Clangers: 3.57

SC Avg when clangers below 4: 103.1 from 10 (low of 37 and a high of 143, 4/10 below 100, 5/10 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 4: 102.36 from 11 (low of 63 and a high of 148, 4/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)

Time on Ground%: 85.76%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 86%: 102.21 from 14 (low of 63 and a high of 144, 5/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 86%: 103.71 from 7 (low of 37 and a high of 148, 3/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)

 

Premium career stat averages:

Disposals:

2011: 24.43

2012: 31.24

2013: 28.43

2014: 27.16

2015: 28.19

2017: 27.05

2018: 29.14

 

Kicks:

2011: 12.71

2012: 16.05

2013: 14

2014: 14.63

2015: 14.5

2017: 14.53

2018: 15.71

 

Handballs:

2011: 11.71

2012: 15.19

2013: 14.43

2014: 12.53

2015: 13.69

2017: 12.53

2018: 13.43

 

Marks:

2011: 5.71

2012: 4.62

2013: 4.43

2014: 3.58

2015: 4.5

2017: 4.53

2018: 5.43

 

Contested Possessions:

2011: 8.5

2012: 11.76

2013: 12.57

2014: 12.21

2015: 13.31

2017: 10.58

2018: 11.19

 

Tackles:

2011: 3.57

2012: 3.95

2013: 3.29

2014: 5.26

2015: 4.19

2017: 4.16

2018: 2.95

 

Clangers:

2011: 1.93

2012: 2.24

2013: 3.57

2014: 2.74

2015: 2.88

2017: 3.37

2018: 3.57

 

Time on Ground %:

2011: 78.14%

2012: 85.81%

2013: 84.86%

2014: 85.74%

2015: 83.13%

2017: 81.79%

2018: 85.76%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2011: 72.1%

2012: 73.78%

2013: 75.38%

2014: 68.02%

2015: 68.96%

2017: 71.60%

2018: 69.61%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2011: 35.10%

2012: 37.48%

2013: 44.22%

2014: 44.53%

2015: 48.19%

2017: 39.57%

2018: 37.78%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 9 teams (Adel, Coll, Freo, GC, Haw, Port, StK, Syd, WC) with 5 pre-bye and 4 post bye.

14.03 win/loss differential and 5 of the past 6 seasons he has averaged 120+ in wins.

9.97 post bye/pre-bye differential with 3 of the past 4 seasons exceeding a 110+ avg post bye.

40+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 30, kicks equal/exceed 16 and contested possessions equal/exceed 12.

 

Beams has been significantly hampered by injury throughout his 10-year career as he has never managed to play a full 22 games in a season and 5 of those 10 seasons he has only managed 17+ games. Therefore, durability is a huge concern for Beams and if interested in selecting him, he should only be started rather than traded in to reduce trades spent as 2 trades will need to be spent if he is an upgrade target and then needs to be traded due to injury but starting him means only 1 trade could be used if he suffers an injury. Has the potential to return to or exceed a 110 average but there are question marks around the amount of midfield minutes he will receive due to the wealth of options in their midfield which could mean he potentially spends more time forward or in defence.

Verdict: Consider for M3-M5 but only as a starting selection.

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10 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Dayne Beams (COL)”

  1. I don’t see any potential for him to return to 110 he isn’t even a top 4 mid at the Pies so shouldn’t be floated as ‘potential M3-M5’ for a supercoach. More than likely he wont even be in the top 100 for SC points scored in 2019, very much a potatoe

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  2. Do you really believe that pre-2016 form is relevant to 2019 Supercoach selections? The only Pre-2016 data of any relevance to 2019 supercoach is how many games were missed due to injury or suspension, nobody reads the endless list of irrelevant data so save yourselves some time and minimise our scrolling, please.

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    1. Finding out why a player improves is useful. Increased disposal efficiency, tackle count etc. Also it gives an indicator if they have hit their peak and are about to decline or plateau or fall away compared to other players.

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    2. I for one appreciate all the effort Adam puts it.

      I would also argue that pre-2016 (or even ’14) is very much relevant for Beams. When he last played for Collingwood, it was under Buckley with a plethora of gun midfielders who all averaged 120+. This is very much the case this season.

      He’s 28, in his prime and the last two seasons he has shown his body is on the mend. $550k for his calibe and midfield support is fantastic value.

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    3. Do you know how many players make the top 6 or 8 in their relative position(s), then miss a year (or two) then reappear?! I can tell you more do that than back it up. Injuries, change of clubs, a team’s relative rise or fall, are all significant. He has left a bottom side (albeit on the rise) to rejoin one that monsters games like no other and wins most weeks!
      While I won’t be picking him, these stats are invaluable to the SCT community in helping us to analyse trends and select our premos.

      If you choose not to read them then that is your choice. Just wanna day that a lot of time and effort goes into the content on here. I therefore see no reason to bag it!

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    4. Hey Nathan,
      You’re entitled to your opinion, no doubt about that. Our job (as we see it) is to get as much of the available information out for our Coaches. You’re free to use that info as you please……in the end, it’s you that picks your SC team.
      I made the call last year to switch the ‘Premiums’ articles to a stats page after Adam offered his services. Everyone knows who the premos are and after a while, the write-ups become very similar.
      With Adam’s numbers, you’re given every possible stat to make an informed choice (in my view), no matter how miniscule and the entire history is provided for all of the premium selections. Use them as you see fit……..

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    5. Been a reader for a bit over a year. Sometime commenter. AFL Novice.

      Adam – I appreciate the effort. I’m still trying to get my head around the relevancy of all the stats (as AFL is not a native game to me… from the USA originally, so a gridiron and basketball fan). I’m loving your effort and perspective. Keep feeding the SCT community with this level of analysis, that to this point I’ve not been able to find ANYWHERE ELSE ON THE NET! I can’t speak for the rest of the readers, but I think you’re a legend. Keep providing your analysis buddy.

      Nathan – Everyone’s opinion is worthwhile. However, for the sake of the future of this site for people with varying levels of footy nous, I would appreciate you modelling more constructive feedback, as this will ensure our current and future contributors feel comfy that their efforts are valued. Thanks heaps in advance 🙂 And, I look forward to seeing more posts from yourself that are in keeping with the spirit of the SCT Community.

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  3. I must admit Adam I sometimes scroll through the stats to get to your observations, however I have read and will read every one of your articles this season. I find your observations astute and very worthwhile.

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  4. Great work Adam. It would take balls of steel to select Beams but he knows how to score in Supercoach. He is super relevant in 2019 as he could delay De Goey’s break-out.

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