Elite Numbers ’19 – Gary Ablett (GEE)

(Written & Created By Adam)

Can Ablett stay SC-relevant for one more year?

 

Premium History (Avg>100):

2007: 114.2 from 22

2008: 132.2 from 18

2009: 140.1 from 19

2010: 129.9 from 21

2011: 127.1 from 20

2012: 138.35 from 20

2013: 128.86 from 21

2014: 136.67 from 15

2015: 115.5 from 6

2016: 114.07 from 14

2017: 114.79 from 14

2018: 106.94 from 18

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 116.2 from 15 (low of 21 and a high of 198, 5/15 below 100, 6/15 120+)

Bris: 123.6 from 15 (low of 74 and a high of 182, 3/15 below 100, 8/15 120+)

Carl: 117.73 from 11 (low of 81 and a high of 171, 4/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)

Coll: 122.27 from 11 (low of 61 and a high of 178, 4/11 below 100, 6/11 120+)

Ess: 127.3 from 10 (low of 55 and a high of 182, 3/10 below 100, 7/10 120+)

Freo: 116.38 from 13 (low of 62 and a high of 185, 5/13 below 100, 6/13 120+)

Geel: 115 from 6 (low of 83 and a high of 160, 1/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

GC: 107 from 2 (low of 97 and a high of 117)

GWS: 135.13 from 8 (low of 73 and a high of 189, 2/8 below 100, 6/8 120+)

Haw: 142.87 from 15 (low of 79 and a high of 189, 1/15 below 100, 12/15 120+)

Melb: 120.5 from 16 (low of 67 and a high of 165, 4/16 below 100, 8/16 120+)

NM: 136.43 from 14 (low of 68 and a high of 210, 2/14 below 100, 9/14 120+)

Port: 125.73 from 11 (low of 80 and a high of 206, 2/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)

Rich: 128.91 from 11 (low of 80 and a high of 170, 2/11 below 100, 9/11 120+)

StK: 120.67 from 12 (low of 64 and a high of 184, 4/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

Syd: 138.33 from 12 (low of 19 and a high of 254, 3/12 below 100, 9/12 120+)

WC: 128.85 from 13 (low of 87 and a high of 176, 2/13 below 100, 7/13 120+)

WB: 121 from 12 (low of 75 and a high of 154, 3/12 below 100, 7/12 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

GMHBA Stadium: 128.59 from 34 (7/34 below 100, 18/34 120+)

2007: 106.38 from 8

2008: 133.5 from 6

2009: 146.5 from 6

2010: 152 from 6

2018: 116.33 from 6

 

Metricon Stadium: 124.65 from 55 (12/55 below 100, 31/55 120+)

2011: 120.5 from 8

2012: 135 from 9

2013: 133 from 11

2014: 131.25 from 8

2015: 133.33 from 3

2016: 105.43 from 7

2017: 113.63 from 8

2018: 117 from 1

 

Interstate: 126.94 from 69 (18/69 below 100, 39/69 120+)

2007: 108.4 from 5

2008: 120.8 from 5

2009: 158.5 from 4

2010: 118.2 from 5

2011: 143.88 from 8

2012: 142 from 8

2013: 124.78 from 9

2014: 142.86 from 7

2015: 70 from 2

2016: 125 from 6

2017: 116.33 from 6

2018: 97.5 from 4

 

GMHBA Stadium Wins: 132.3 from 30 (6/30 below 100, 17/30 120+)

2007: 113.17 from 6

2008: 133.5 from 6

2009: 146.5 from 6

2010: 152 from 6

2018: 116.33 from 6

 

GMHBA Stadium Losses: 100.75 from 4 (1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

2007: 86 from 2

2013: 129 from 1

2016: 102 from 1

 

Metricon Stadium Wins: 124.54 from 24 (6/24 below 100, 14/24 120+)

2012: 125 from 2

2013: 142 from 6

2014: 127.17 from 6

2015: 124 from 1

2016: 108.75 from 4

2017: 112 from 4

2018: 117 from 1

 

Metricon Stadium Losses: 124.74 from 31 (6/31 below 100, 17/31 120+)

2011: 120.5 from 8

2012: 137.86 from 7

2013: 122.2 from 5

2014: 143.5 from 2

2015: 138 from 2

2016: 101 from 3

2017: 115.25 from 4

 

Wins: 128.43 from 112 (25/112 below 100, 66/112 120+)

2007: 118.33 from 18

2008: 132.53 from 17

2009: 147.13 from 16

2010: 129.44 from 16

2011: 103.67 from 3

2012: 127.67 from 3

2013: 145.5 from 8

2014: 138.78 from 9

2015: 124 from 1

2016: 111 from 5

2017: 115.5 from 6

2018: 109.7 from 10

 

Losses: 122.76 from 96 (26/96 below 100, 52/96 120+)

2007: 95.5 from 4

2008: 127 from 1

2009: 102.67 from 3

2010: 131.2 from 5

2011: 131.24 from 17

2012: 140.29 from 17

2013: 118.62 from 13

2014: 133.5 from 6

2015: 113.8 from 5

2016: 115.78 from 9

2017: 114.25 from 8

2018: 103.5 from 8

 

Pre Bye: 124.17 from 65 (18/65 below 100, 35/65 120+)

2011: 118.17 from 6

2012: 139 from 10

2013: 138.25 from 12

2014: 146.86 from 7

2015: 103 from 2

2016: 116.09 from 11

2017: 107.75 from 8

2018: 104.33 from 9

 

Post Bye: 124.08 from 63 (15/63 below 100, 37/63 120+)

2011: 130.93 from 14

2012: 137.7 from 10

2013: 116.33 from 9

2014: 127.75 from 8

2015: 121.75 from 4

2016: 106.67 from 3

2017: 124.17 from 6

2018: 109.56 from 9

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 29.17

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 125 from 10 (low of 98 and a high of 158, 1/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 30: 84.38 from 8 (low of 55 and a high of 112, 7/8 below 100)

Kicks: 15.56

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 16: 124.75 from 8 (low of 98 and a high of 158, 1/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 16: 92.7 from 10 (low of 55 and a high of 134, 7/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

Handballs: 13.61

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 14: 125.43 from 7 (low of 98 and a high of 151, 1/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 14: 95.18 from 11 (low of 55 and a high of 158, 7/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)

Marks: 4.39

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 5: 120.2 from 10 (low of 86 and a high of 158, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 5: 90.38 from 8 (low of 55 and a high of 118, 5/8 below 100)

Contested Possessions: 11.06

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 12: 124.38 from 8 (low of 80 and a high of 158, 2/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 12: 93 from 10 (low of 55 and a high of 117, 6/10 below 100)

Tackles: 3.67

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 4: 119.8 from 10 (low of 85 and a high of 158, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 4: 90.88 from 8 (low of 55 and a high of 117, 5/8 below 100)

Clangers: 4.28

SC Avg when clangers below 5: 107.5 from 10 (low of 55 and a high of 151, 4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 5: 106.25 from 8 (low of 68 and a high of 158, 4/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

Time on Ground%: 82.06%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 83%: 121.11 from 9 (low of 80 and a high of 158, 3/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 83%: 92.78 from 9 (low of 55 and a high of 118, 5/9 below 100)

 

Premium Career Stat Averages:

Disposals:

2007: 26.59

2008: 28.22

2009: 32.42

2010: 31.38

2011: 30.25

2012: 33.75

2013: 31.19

2014: 32.07

2015: 22.83

2016: 27

2017: 33

2018: 29.17

 

Kicks:

2007: 14.32

2008: 13.67

2009: 13.26

2010: 14.29

2011: 15.2

2012: 19.45

2013: 16.33

2014: 16.93

2015: 15.67

2016: 14.5

2017: 19

2018: 15.56

 

Handballs:

2007: 12.27

2008: 14.56

2009: 21.16

2010: 17.10

2011: 15.05

2012: 14.3

2013: 14.86

2014: 15.13

2015: 7.17

2016: 12.5

2017:14

2018: 13.61

 

Marks:

2007: 3.95

2008: 4.67

2009: 4.26

2010: 4.62

2011: 2.25

2012: 3.05

2013: 3.48

2014: 2

2015: 2

2016: 2

2017: 3.5

2018: 4.39

 

Contested Possessions:

2007: 9.77

2008: 11.5

2009: 13.68

2010: 13.19

2011: 14.75

2012: 14.9

2013: 14.90

2014: 17.47

2015: 11

2016: 13.21

2017: 13.71

2018: 11.06

 

Tackles:

2007: 3.09

2008: 4.78

2009: 4.37

2010: 4.19

2011: 5.95

2012: 5.5

2013: 4.57

2014: 6.07

2015: 4.67

2016: 6.07

2017: 5.5

2018: 3.67

 

Clangers:

2007: 3.18

2008: 2.56

2009: 2.58

2010: 3.05

2011: 2.55

2012: 4.05

2013: 3.48

2014: 4.2

2015: 3

2016: 3

2017: 4.64

2018: 4.28

 

Time on Ground %:

2007: 89.95%

2008: 85.56%

2009: 90%

2010: 90.10%

2011: 88.65%

2012: 92.45%

2013: 94.14%

2014: 90.53%

2015: 75.83%

2016: 87.5%

2017: 86.36%

2018: 82.06%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2007: 75.4%

2008: 76.7%

2009: 75.9%

2010: 74.3%

2011: 69.9%

2012: 69.1%

2013: 67.02%

2014: 69.02%

2015: 78.10%

2016: 70.63%

2017: 69.91%

2018: 71.24%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2007: 36.69%

2008: 40.27%

2009: 39.39%

2010: 41.78%

2011: 48.12%

2012: 44.74%

2013: 48.45%

2014: 55.39%

2015: 49.62%

2016: 49.33%

2017: 42.86%

2018: 37.69%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 17 teams (GC only team he doesn’t average 110+ against).

Averages 128.59 from 34 at GMHBA with 3/5 seasons exceeding a 130+ avg with 5 at GHMBA pre-bye and 4 post bye in 2019.

5.67 win/loss differential.

0.09 pre-bye/post bye differential.

30+ avg differential when disposals equal/exceed 30.

 

The little master and undoubtedly the best SC player of all time returned to Geelong in 2018 and posted his first season avg below 110 since 2006 due to the prevalent injury concerns that have troubled him over the latter half of his career.

Ablett could be utilised more as a forward in 2019 allowing more midfield time for several players which will likely decrease his disposals, contested numbers and SC Avg. Still has the potential to average 110+ but it currently looks unlikely and is suited as a nostalgic upgrade target in the latter half of the season.

Verdict: Upgrade target

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