Elite Numbers ’19 – Kade Simpson (CAR)

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 9 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Will Simpson ever see a Finals game?

 

Premium history (Avg>90):

2009: 93.95 from 22

2010: 99.82 from 22

2011: 94.5 from 22

2012: 93.68 from 19

2013: 95.14 from 22

2014: 95.41 from 22

2015: 92.7 from 20

2016: 106.36 from 22

2017: 93.91 from 22

2018: 105.05 from 21

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 96.33 from 12 (low of 63 and a high of 144, 7/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Bris: 99.85 from 13 (low of 55 and a high of 151, 6/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Coll: 95.89 from 19 (low of 58 and a high of 143, 11/19 below 100, 3/19 120+)

Ess: 103.61 from 18 (low of 38 and a high of 156, 7/18 below 100, 4/18 120+)

Freo: 101.31 from 13 (low of 70 and a high of 129, 5/13 below 100, 4/13 120+)

Geel: 96.58 from 12 (low of 42 and a high of 149, 6/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

GC: 99.6 from 10 (low of 52 and a high of 142, 5/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)

GWS: 86.86 from 7 (low of 32 and a high if 113m 4/7 below 100)

Haw: 92.36 from 11 (low of 63 and a high of 132, 8/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)

Melb: 89.58 from 12 (low of 57 and a high of 128, 9/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

NM: 96.56 from 9 (low of 60 and a high of 129, 4/9 below 100, 2/11 120+)

Port: 90.92 from 12 (low of 24 and a high of 139, 7/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Rich: 98.75 from 16 (low of 57 and a high of 150, 6/16 below 100, 4/16 120+)

StK: 96.6 from 15 (low of 66 and a high of 145, 10/15 below 100, 3/15 120+)

Syd: 99.14 from 14 (low of 57 and a high of 148, 8/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)

WC: 105.18 from 11 (low of 72 and a high of 150, 6/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

WB: 93.4 from 10 (low of 55 and a high of 144, 6/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

MCG: 99.76 from 83 (41/83 below 100, 19/83 120+)

2009: 84.5 from 8

2010: 102.25 from 8

2011: 97 from 9

2012: 98.29 from 7

2013: 99 from 8

2014: 102.75 from 8

2015: 93.56 from 9

2016: 111.44 from 9

2017: 94.5 from 10

2018: 117.29 from 7

 

Marvel: 97.62 from 77 (42/77 below 100, 14/77 120+)

2009: 109.88 from 8

2010: 90.78 from 9

2011: 97 from 9

2012: 94.14 from 7

2013: 93.22 from 9

2014: 101.89 from 9

2015: 104.4 from 5

2016: 103 from 7

2017: 87.33 from 6

2018: 95.75 from 8

 

Interstate: 91.38 from 53 (32/53 below 100, 8/53 120+)

2009: 85.33 from 6

2010: 112.2 from 5

2011: 83.25 from 4

2012: 86.6 from 5

2013: 92.4 from 5

2014: 72 from 5

2015: 81.67 from 6

2016: 102.67 from 6

2017: 99.5 from 6

2018: 95.8 from 5

 

MCG Wins: 100.16 from 32 (16/32 below 100, 9/32 120+)

2009: 99 from 4

2010: 97.8 from 5

2011: 89.4 from 5

2012: 101.2 from 5

2013: 103.33 from 3

2014: 144 from 1

2015: 85.5 from 2

2016: 106.33 from 3

2017: 106.67 from 3

2018: 103 from 1

 

MCG Losses: 98.86 from 49 (25/49 below 100, 10/49 120+)

2009: 70 from 4

2010: 109.67 from 3

2011: 104 from 3

2012: 91 from 2

2013: 96.4 from 5

2014: 93.5 from 6

2015: 95.86 from 7

2016: 114 from 6

2017: 89.29 from 7

2018: 119.67 from 6

 

Marvel Wins: 108.53 from 32 (12/32 below 100, 9/32 120+)

2009: 119.67 from 6

2010: 117 from 3

2011: 96.6 from 5

2012: 102 from 4

2013: 108.75 from 4

2014: 112.67 from 6

2015: 88 from 1

2016: 107.33 from 3

2017: 96 from 2

2018: 0 from 0

 

Marvel Losses: 89.87 from 45 (30/45 below 100, 5/45 120+)

2009: 80.5 from 2

2010: 77.67 from 6

2011: 97.5 from 4

2012: 90.2 from 5

2013: 80.8 from 5

2014: 80.33 from 3

2015: 108.5 from 4

2016: 99.75 from 4

2017: 83 from 4

2018: 95.75 from 8

 

Wins: 103 from 84 (36/84 below 100, 24/84 120+)

2009: 102.08 from 13

2010: 110.55 from 11

2011: 90.21 from 14

2012: 104.67 from 9

2013: 100.09 from 11

2014: 117.14 from 7

2015: 82.75 from 4

2016: 110 from 7

2017: 109 from 6

2018: 114 from 2

 

Losses: 92.95 from 128 (79/128 below 100, 18/128 120+)

2009: 82.22 from 9

2010: 89.09 from 11

2011: 100.29 from 7

2012: 83.8 from 10

2013: 90.18 from 11

2014: 83 from 14

2015: 95.19 from 16

2016: 104.67 from 15

2017: 88.25 from 16

2018: 104.11 from 19

 

Pre Bye: 97.11 from 80 (42/80 below 100, 13/80 120+)

2011: 88.29 from 7

2012: 97.83 from 12

2013: 87.08 from 12

2014: 104.5 from 8

2015: 95.75 from 8

2016: 105 from 12

2017: 92.3 from 10

2018: 104.27 from 11

 

Post Bye: 97.2 from 90 (49/90 below 100, 19/90 120+)

2011: 97.4 from 15

2012: 86.57 from 7

2013: 104.8 from 10

2014: 90.21 from 14

2015: 90.67 from 12

2016: 108 from 10

2017: 95.25 from 12

2018: 105.9 from 10

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 26.14

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 125.55 from 11 (low of 82 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 27: 82.5 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)

Kicks: 17.57

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 18: 126.91 from 11 (low of 97 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 18: 81 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)

Handballs: 8.57

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 9: 116.56 from 9 (low of 72 and a high of 150, 3/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 9: 96.42 from 12 (low of 70 and a high of 142, 8/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Marks: 5.48

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 6: 113.36 from 11 (low of 72 and a high of 150, 4/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 6: 95.7 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 144, 7/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

Contested Possessions: 7.43

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 8: 118 from 9 (low of 81 and a high of 150, 2/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 8: 95.33 from 12 (low of 70 and a high of 142, 9/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Tackles: 2

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 2: 110.07 from 14 (low of 70 and a high of 150, 7/14 below 100, 6/7 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 2: 95 from 7 (low of 80 and a high of 123, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)

Clangers: 2.57

SC Avg when clangers below 3: 101.42 from 12 (low of 70 and a high of 142, 6/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 3: 109.89 from 9 (low of 81 and a high of 150, 5/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

Time on Ground%: 91.38%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 92%: 106.55 from 11 (low of 72 and a high of 142, 5/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 92%: 103.4 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 150, 6/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

 

Premium career stat averages:

Disposals:

2009: 21.26

2010: 23.39

2011: 22.33

2012: 22.42

2013: 22.21

2014: 23.64

2015: 23

2016: 27.14

2017: 24.05

2018: 26.14

 

Kicks:

2009: 12.48

2010: 14.26

2011: 15.04

2012: 14.05

2013: 14.58

2014: 15.86

2015: 14.25

2016: 17.41

2017: 17.14

2018: 17.57

 

Handballs:

2009: 8.78

2010: 9.13

2011: 7.29

2012: 8.37

2013: 7.63

2014: 7.77

2015: 8.75

2016: 9.73

2017: 6.91

2018: 8.57

 

Marks:

2009: 5.61

2010: 6.17

2011: 6.13

2012: 5.58

2013: 5.83

2014: 6.32

2015: 5.9

2016: 6.91

2017: 7.36

2018: 5.48

 

Contested Possessions:

2009: 5.96

2010: 7.48

2011: 7.54

2012: 6.68

2013: 6.96

2014: 7.09

2015: 5.5

2016: 5.68

2017: 6.55

2018: 7.43

 

Tackles:

2009: 3.57

2010: 4.04

2011: 3.29

2012: 3.26

2013: 2.13

2014: 2.36

2015: 2.1

2016: 2.45

2017: 2.68

2018: 2

 

Clangers:

2009: 1.87

2010: 2.39

2011: 2.25

2012: 1.68

2013: 2

2014: 2.59

2015: 2.65

2016: 2.59

2017: 2.86

2018: 2.57

 

Time on Ground %:

2009: 80.78%

2010: 84.65%

2011: 85.5%

2012: 84.68%

2013: 91.21%

2014: 88.36%

2015: 89.6%

2016: 92.95%

2017: 93.5%

2018: 91.38%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2009: 76.1%

2010: 71.7%

2011: 70%

2012: 74.6%

2013: 80.3%

2014: 76.7%

2015: 79.8%

2016: 82.4%

2017: 75%

2018: 76%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2009: 27.51%

2010: 31.97%

2011: 34.64%

2012: 30.31%

2013: 31.93%

2014: 32.04%

2015: 24.38%

2016: 21.74%

2017: 28.46%

2018: 31.84%

 

Observations:

105+ avg in 2 of the past 3 seasons.

Averages 100+ against 3 teams (Ess, Freo, WC)

99.76 avg from 83 matches at the MCG with 41/83 below and 19/83 120+ and has recorded a 110+ average there in 2 of the past 3 seasons. 7 matches in 2019 at the MCG with 3 pre-bye.

10.05 win/loss differential.

0.09 post bye/pre-bye avg differential and the past 3 seasons has averaged more post bye.

40+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 27 and when kicks equal/exceed 18.

 

The most consistent and durable defender in the game, Simpson has played 214 of a possible 220 games since 2009 and 280 of a possible 286 since 2006 epitomising his outstanding durability whilst averaging over 90 for 10 consecutive seasons and exceeding 105 in 2 of the past 3 seasons.

With the devastating news of Docherty missing his 2nd consecutive season due to another ACL injury, Simpson should again shoulder most of the rebounding load out of Carlton’s backline. He has consistently averaged between 22-24 disposals throughout his premium scoring history except for 2016 and 2018 when he averaged 27.14 and 26.14 respectively.

The main deterrents for selecting Simpson is either he is priced at his maximum or his age but the issue regarding his age is flawed as the injury concerns for older players would be greater for those who play a contested style and it should have less of an influence on defenders as evident by C Enright averaging 101 in his last season at the same age as Simpson.

It’s hard to decide when the ideal time to select Simpson is between a starting selection or upgrade target but based on his prior history he should be a solid pick whenever he is selected.

Verdict: Strongly consider as D1-D2/Upgrade target

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12 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Kade Simpson (CAR)”

  1. Great stuff Adam, but has to be an upgrade target for me. I feel there will be less cheap possessions for Simmo spreading the ball across half-back than in season’s past. The new kick-in rule looks designed to reward playing on to go deeper to a contest or target (Cripps, Kreuzer, McGovern, Curnow).
    We’ll see how it plays out, but too heavily priced for me to start. Have no concerns about his age or durability so if he starts well, he will very likely be an early upgrade target.
    Thanks again Adam.

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    1. I agree with you Allsaints but I decided to bring him in early rather than later. I believe that coaches will not easily change their philosophy of play. Even though the new kick in rules will advantage some teams and defenders, teams will play to their own strenghts and since Carlton is still training the same way , the build up to their game will probably remain the same. Disposals are still disposals and his TOG is in the 90% and what I love the most about having him in my team is that the worse scores from him are still in the 70s.
      He has to really get sub 90s in JLT and someone else to beat down the doors with the new rules for me to swap him to a cheaper option at the start.

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  2. Good job Adam . You firmed my choice. He was always in my group of 6 def (3 to take from) I decided to have him in my team instead of Sicily or Whitherden. Carlton I believe will see more of the ball in their defence than Brizzie or the hawks this year , so even though I worry about his age, he is a stayer and I’ll get 22 games off him. confirmed my gut feelings. D3.

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  3. Thanks Adam. I switched back and forth between Simpson and Hibberd countless times before round 1 last year, and eventually I chose….poorly. I’ll not be making that mistake again.
    Saw a photo of Kade at training last week, the bloke looks like he could play until he’s 50. Lock him in.

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  4. One of my favourite players in the competition and thoroughly enjoyed attending his 300th game last season. Depending on my selections/structures he is vying with Laird/Whitfield/Ryan for a spot down back and if he is not started then he will be my first backline upgrade.

    Some extra stats on K Simpson:
    Since 2016: 101.72 from 65 of a possible 66 matches. 9/65 below 80, 32/65 100+, 16/65 120+.
    Since 2013: 98.12 from 129 of a possible 132 matches.

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