It’s mid-Autumn, and by now we should all be concerning ourselves with bubble boys and fallen premiums….should. But as you’ll see from this week’s edition of the Flavour of the Week, it’s really, really difficult to (a) ignore players on a hot streak, and (b) avoid going early on your rookies based on their first game. Tread carefully, coaches!
Here are the most popular trade targets, as of 12pm, Wednesday May 1:
1. Will Hayes (WBD, mid, $117 300)
+ The Bubble Boy of the Week is the son of horse trainer David Hayes (just in case you somehow hadn’t heard). Hayes was taken at pick 78 in last year’s draft, after being named Footscray’s B&F in the VFL in 2018.
+ Hayes has compiled scores of 70 and 55 in his two games to start his AFL career, impressing with his hard running and overall effort around the ground. His break-even stands at -57.
+ Hayes is certainly the number one downgrade option this week, with few other options impressing or expected to be named. With the likes of Cousins, LDU, Atkins and Butters nearing the end of their price growth, Hayes might be the man to get you some cash.
– While they’re slow burners, Butters and Atkins still have more cash to make. You could wait and hope that a downgrade with better scoring potential than Hayes comes along in the next few weeks.
– As noted in the Fallen Premiums earlier today, it’s really hard to know what to make of the Dogs at the moment. Hopefully Hayes doesn’t become the scapegoat for their poor form.
2. Noah Answerth (BRL, def/mid, $117 300)
+ Accomplished performance by Answerth on his debut, compiling 12 possessions at 91% efficiency for his 69 points in the Q-Clash.
+ The former captain of the Oakleigh Chargers, Answerth was taken at pick 55 by the Lions, and has made his way in to the team on the back of solid NEAFL form.
+ Comes with highly useful DPP status, potentially setting up a swing with the likes of Duursma and Lockhart.
– Answerth has only played one game. He’ll still be the same price after his next game.
– Assuming he gets a ‘next game’, that is. Harris Andrews won’t be more than a week away with a minor hamstring strain.
3. Nathan Fyfe (FRE, mid, $564 000)
+ The 2015 Brownlow medallist has rebounded nicely after suffering a shocking concussion against St Kilda a month ago. Fyfe has compiled scores of 110 and 128 in the past fortnight, leading the resurgent Dockers to two impressive victories.
+ With an unmatched ability to win the contested ball on the ground and in the air, there are few players that can match a Fyfe in full flight. Nat has recorded a scoring average of 105+ in seven of his nine seasons in the league.
+ That concussion-affected 63 drops out of his price cycle this week, and puts his break-even at a very manageable 90. This could be the cheapest that you’ll see Fyfe at for the remainder of the season.
– That round 3 concussion was just another painful reminder of Fyfe’s susceptibility to injury. He has missed 30 games in the past five seasons due to a number of ailments, including soft tissue injuries and a broken leg (twice).
– With Neale now at the Lions, Fyfe is the obvious target for a tag at the Dockers. He’s such a beast that generally he just laughs it off, but it is something to consider.
4. Tim Kelly (GEE, fwd/mid, $476 700)
+ Kelly somehow kept his forward status from last year, despite spending most of his time firmly in the middle of the field, and his Supercoach numbers reflect that. Averaging just over 96 ppg so far, Kelly is a good bet for a top 10 forward at season’s end.
+ TK turned in a dreadful game against the Giants three weeks ago, but that score now drops out of his price cycle, putting his break-even at just 62. It could be now or never if you don’t have him already.
+ Geelong has a very friendly run of games over the next month, including the Roos, Dogs, Suns and Swans.
– As good as he is, it’s easy to forget that Kelly is still barely into his second year in the league, and hasn’t acquired the consistency of a more experienced player just yet.
– Shares the round 13 bye with other popular forward selections such as Dangerfield, Heeney and Dahlhaus. Make sure you’ve got adequate coverage for that killer middle bye!
5. Travis Boak (PTA, fwd, $588 600)
+ After being selected in less than 2% of teams at the start of the season, Boak is the clear winner of the POD of the year so far. Averaging over 122 points per game, Travis is ranked fourth overall for points scored in 2019.
+ After playing as a half-forward for much of the past couple of seasons, clearly a move back to the midfield agrees with Boak. A rigorous off-season regime aimed at increasing his aerobic capacity also seems to be paying dividends.
+ The noticeable upgrade in the speed of the Power’s footy this year should also help their overall Supercoach scoring.
– Horribly, horribly expensive. Do you really think Boak can sustain this sort of scoring for the entire season? He hasn’t averaged more than 91 in any of his previous three seasons, and is now coming up on his 31st birthday.
– The absence of Robbie Gray for the next month could see Boak moved back into his lower-scoring role in the forward line.
#6 – 10: Nick LARKEY (NTH), Jack ROSS (RIC), Bachar HOULI (RIC), Josh ROTHAM (WCE), Lachie NEALE (BRL)
Most traded OUT players this week: Sam COLLINS (GCS), Zak BUTTERS (PTA), Jordan CLARK (GEE), Tom ATKINS (GEE), Jack SCRIMSHAW (HAW), Robbie GRAY (PTA), Dom SHEED (WCE), Tom LIBERATORE (WBD), Nic NEWMAN (CAR), Bailey SCOTT (NTH)
Most popular trades so far this week:
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