Going The Early Crow

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 26 2019

It happens every year, it never ceases to amaze…………Coaches wanting desperately to dump their plans that they’ve been working on over the pre-season after just one Round of footy.  I just want to present a few examples for the case of keeping calm and simply sticking to the plan you worked on for months………

Believe it or not……before I stumbled upon SCT in 2013, I dabbled in various SuperCoach forums online.  In one of these Forums I stumbled across the current leader after Rd2 in 2012, Jeff*.  (For the purpose of the story, let’s call him Jeff*……not his real name…….I have a feeling he’s probably still cruising around the SC Forums).

When I met Jeff, I congratulated him on his great start and asked how he was looking with an eye to the next few Rounds.  ‘I’ve got the $50k in the bag’, he tells me…….‘I haven’t used a trade, not even for corrective rookie trades!’, he says………..‘There is no way anyone is gonna catch me from here!’.   I gently reminded him that there were still twenty-one weeks to go and there were roughly 200 000+ Coaches plotting their next move to take his spot.  ‘Let ’em try, I got this’ proclaimed Jeff.

The good thing about the SuperCoach site/app is that you can keep an eye on rival teams using the search function.  So I kept an eye on Jeff’s team that year……and I watched him slide out of the Top100 after Rd6…….then the Top1000 after the Byes……then the Top5000……..Jeff ended the season just inside the Top10k.  His starting side was a healthy mix of premos & mid-pricers, many of which had performed well over the first 2-3 weeks only to drop off sharply before the bye Rounds.  Instead of replacing them at their peak price, he held them thinking they would be the Top scoring players in their area.  By the time he replaced them, season-ending injuries starting kicking in after the Byes and he had no luck trading in ‘elites’.

Anything can happen in footy/SuperCoach, from poor form to injury, one week really is a long time in this business.  So when I see Coaches going the early Crow here and on social media, I remember Jeff.  It’s a long season, Coaches…….don’t panic after one Round!

The second example of not going the early crow, and there are a couple………

While receiving all the applications for our LoEC Leagues, the great majority of them follow a similar pattern that is easy to recognise (I’m sure these Coaches wouldn’t mind their screenshots being used here):

 

This first photo belongs to Kyuubi (our SCT Cup Winner from 2018)……..you’ll notice he was outside the Top10k after two rounds before storming to the Top100 by the time the Bye Rounds were upon us.  He ended the season ranked #57.

 

This 2nd photo belongs to The Bald Muppets who looked to be struggling after 2-3 Rounds, sitting around the 25k mark before he ended the season at #25 overall.

 

Third photo belongs to TrudgeonTriumph@SCT, who was outside the Top20k after Rd1 but climbed his way into the Top1000 by seasons end, finishing at #642.

 

**Very rarely does the Winner nail his starting line-up and stay inside the Top50 all season**

 

One thing you can be sure of is that these Coaches didn’t panic-trade after a couple of ‘average’ Rounds.  They traded wisely, they planned ahead and they navigated the Bye Rounds skilfully.

Please take these examples into account if your season hasn’t started as you’d hoped.  There is a long way to go and there are plenty of SCT Leagues relying on you to coach through the entire season.  Good Luck, Coaches!

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42 thoughts on “Going The Early Crow”

  1. Good article! It is a loooong season as everyone says, a marathon not a sprint.

    This made me go look at 2017 where I wound up 8th overall. After round 1 I was ranked 45,581. I made up 30,000 places after round 2. Then alternated going up in rank and down in rank every week for a while. After round 10 I’d made it into the top 100 where I bounced around for the remainder.

    This year I’m 321st after rd1 and by no means more confident than I was that year or any other. It’s a long season.

    Good luck this year coaches!

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      1. Thanks fellers.
        Last year got about as high as 1800ish after the byes and finished 15k having to try some risky pods etc.
        Team this year fairly typical, Gawn and Grundy as rucks, which I’ve noticed a lot of the top ranked rd1 teams didn’t do. I imagine that will backfire for them. Went pretty strong in midfield and main pod is bont so that started well but will see how he goes.

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  2. Top write-up Schwarz, although can someone clarify for me what “going the early crow” means lol? Haven’t heard that expression before.

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    1. It means mouthing off at round 1 when there is another 21 rounds to come. Way too early to be getting ahead of yourself.

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  3. Great stuff Schwarz and your last point is fundamental to SCT’s ongoing success.
    Yes, I’m disappointed to be 29000th and something. Last year, I scored 2293 in Rd1 and was ranked very similar!
    It’s all relative.
    So a few premos spudded up Rd1. Their pride alone will see a positive shift in scoring over the coming weeks. The leading team is 30pts/wk ahead of me already, but have you seen his/her team!?! I have a lot more confidence in mine, the premos I picked … and have nailed my rookie selections!
    Yes, SCT Leagues can get competitive, but having invested a lot of time and effort into SCT over the last year or so, I wanna see @SCT splattered all over the leaderboard when things settle down.
    Last year I went from a similar position to 365th in six weeks. Couple of early injuries and Macrae and Hoff IN saw to that. And forced to take Ronke a week early (my hero FD, had the same misguided fortune) had me well placed.
    Inexperience in the end fu3ked me, but I still finished top 2000. A mere 30,000 places higher than I ever had before.

    It was all thanks to the sage advice you get on here @SCT. I’m not telling anyone what to do, but ASK questions and you’ll get feedback. It’s still your team and you MUST do what you think is right for you. And
    Yes, everyone has very similar teams, but so very rarely are two exactly the same. Hold fat people. Leading teams will drop like flies. Their structures are simply unsustainable and if they don’t trade well …
    Look at the curves Schwarz has presented above as proof.
    Don’t panic and enjoy the rise!
    Maths and probability say “we’ll be right”

    And go Frankie. That’s a fantastic start mate. Now go nail it 🙂

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  4. G’day allsaints , i had my worst ever start this week but i have faith in my original selections , hell yeah it is a long season and i am sticking to my plan. It was my premo types who didn’t fire and i am backing them to bounce back.

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  5. Fantastic article Schwarz and a timely reminder not to disregard plans and players after 1 round due to a poor individual or team performance.

    Overall rank in the 1st month is nothing to be concerned about as the difference between the good/great coaches/teams to the average ones is the trading and plans put in place to efficiently and effectively manage the season, byes, structures and available trades.

    To reiterate this point 61.8% of the top 5000 currently own S Coniglio and 71 of the top 100 in comparison to only 9.7% owing C Oliver in the top 5000 with not a single coach owning C Oliver in the top 100. This illustrates that early rank is dependant on ownership of a couple of the fast starters and once players revert back to usual form or under-performing selections return to the form then the difference can easily be narrowed.

    Good luck to everyone in 2019 and hopefully SCT will have a coach near the top 10-100 by the pointy end of the season.

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      1. Thanks allsaints, I greatly appreciate it.

        Again to reiterate the importance of having a plan in place and not to overreact to early form an example of this concept can be applied to is other fantasy sports I’ve played in the off-season.

        Supercoach BBL:
        Started off slow averaging 839.6 from the first 5 rounds (13 rounds regular season and 15 inc finals) to be ranked 7432 then managed to average 1119.25 over the next 8 to finish the regular season at 163 thus moving up 7000+ places and after finals managed to finish 156th out of 89,225.

        NFL Sportsdeck:
        Had little to no knowledge about the game/players/scoring system and started off slow to be ranked 279 after RD5 and 209 after RD6. Then spent the next 11 rounds in the top 100, 2 of the last 3 rounds in the top 10 to finish 22nd out of 2417 in conjunction with finishing with the highest team value (267,800,000) and the only one in the top 30 with a team value over 260,000,000.

        NRL SC:
        Another game I have little to no knowledge about and currently 2 rounds in I’m ranked 1879 out of 130,527. Will be interesting to see how I fare considering I lack some of best guns due to going in with a more mid priced approach.

        The constant theme has been the pivotal role that trading has played primarily in regards to cash generation (i.e rookies) and having a plan to combat the season whether it be in regards to byes/trades/etc.

        Referring back to SC don’t get caught up with fixing premiums as this can wait until later when you have a larger sample to then reassess the situation but the most important aspect is cash generation and nailing the right rookies.

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  6. Good write up. All my 5 premo mids tonned up. Still wish I had sheed tho!
    On the flip side if you trade very well it can really setup your season. That being said I won’t be trading this week. Collins on the chopping block tho

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  7. Good reminder Schwarzie. Haven’t started well either but happy I got most good rookies. People forget that on top of your plans, injuries happen and you need trades up your sleeve. Now I have a question:
    Is Drew a must have FWD rookie?

    TU Yes trade him in R2
    TD No Stick to your structure and your current rookies
    Comment other

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    1. As long as you have six FWDs on field this week I think I’d wait a week.
      The added knowledge that gives you in terms of making a ‘valued judgment’ far outweighs the 20-odd points you may miss out on. (He could be a keeper to the byes, but won’t change in price before you make the call, plus you might be surprised by who stays and who goes!?)
      Wait is what I’d do.
      I’m considering Wilkie (he looks so good) in the backline, yet one more week’s stats is gonna make that decision so much more informed!

      But then again, the Bombers are gonna make anyone look good this year 😉

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      1. Think the bombers may have burnt their trades to early. And the coach obviously didn’t use SCT, he should know you can’t put zakka I’m defense it just won’t work.

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  8. And if Oliver goes under 100 next week will all you coaches stick fat?
    I stuck fat with Zmerret and billing’s last year and it destroyed my SC team

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    1. Depends how far under 100. If he’s gonna drop $100k+ in one week and who you’re bringing in is gonna make the same with a negative BE, there’s definitely an argument to do it.
      Otherwise? Forgeddaboudit.
      You’re still going to use a trade and if the player you’re bringing in isn’t a guaranteed keeper, you are better holding. You really are.

      Again, that’s my personal view. My tuppenece worth. Your team. Your call!
      Good luck, whatever you decide. Just don’t do it this week!!

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      1. I’ll wait one more week after everyone’s advice
        Hopefully, Gawn and OLIVER dominate and it’s a non issue
        Thx all saints

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    2. Equating Oliver to Billing is like comparing the proverbial apples to oranges (and I speak as a current Oliver owner and 2018 Billings owner, who stuck fast for way too long).

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      1. Who compared OLIVER to Billing’s?!
        But if Oliver has a stinker and sheed blitzes again I guarantee I’ll be swapping, taking the cash and running

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    3. Merrett got knocked out early last year and Billings role changed. Think you would have to back Oliver in unless he’s injured in some way. I don’t have him but if I did I wouldn’t be trading him out.

      Billings really killed me last year as well. I didn’t even start him, traded him in after R2 I think and then held him too long, traded him out just before he started to find form.

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  9. Great article Schwarzy. I have just caught up on my Twitter feed and I’ve discovered that the keyboard warriors are out in force about Rd 1 SC scores. I’m tempted to screenshot a few for future revenge Tweets when they fall in a screaming heap!

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  10. I’m thinking that a really good round one score might negatively correlate with a good final score. It implies having a large number of over performing players. If the players who over perform all like Coniglio, no worries, but if they are lucky spuds, then yes worry. Sadly a really bad R1 score is not likely to mean a high score later. But, a medium one may just mean you have the solid guys who put out solid scores, and those add up.

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  11. I woke up at 3 am and traded in Rockliff

    At breakfast I asked myself what would Father Dougal do and clicked revert changes.

    After reading the article above, I think I finally see the errors in my ways when building teams. (It is only my second season doing supercoach)

    I have three rookies in my forward line, and libba at M7 and Sam Walsh at M8.

    If I had a magic wand I’d swap a midfield premo for a forward line one. Oh well, something to fix with my first upgrade.

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    1. Oh no, don’t ask what I would do! It takes forever to get the cat out of Yahoo Serious….Or did you mean the thing with the 4 nuns, the inflatable pool, a Wagner Power Painter, and 12 gallons of baby oil….? Either way, I can’t encourage such behavior. Even worse if you apply such thinking to Supercoach!

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  12. Last year i started at 10k , following 7k, then 1800, 1700 then 600, 184 and top 100 for every round after that best rank was 11th in round 18 then finally finishing 21st overall. Gotta back your premoes in there for a reason!, cull spud rookies for the gun ones you don’t have. And try get underpriced premoes a few rounds under there off games for value!!

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    1. Nateo.

      I’m interested if you corrected any premo’s early last year.

      Hibbered out ?

      Did you jump on Cogs or start him.

      I’m considering dumping Mundy if he can’t put up a decent score this week V Suns.

      Be interested to hear your thoughts on Cull or Hold suspect Premo’s

      I waited way too long to deal with Hibbered last year. I don’t want to make the same mistake again.

      Cheers FT.

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      1. Hibberd out to Simpson after round 2 (Mainly due to role change)

        I started with Cogs

        i’d honestly keep Mundy should be a big pod i see him being top 6 fwds

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        1. Thanks Nateo.

          I owned Mundy all last year and he was one of my best forwards.

          He should feast on the Sun’s this week,I will hold the faith for now.

          Thanks for the response.

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  13. I am all for holding premos but last year I held Sauce, Merrett, Hibberd, Dahlhaus(yeah I know) and Billings and it hurt my team.
    This year I have a few premos under perform in Round 1 but am sticking with them all but am worried about Merrett.
    I think if he goes under 80 again and Collins doesn’t go 50+ they could be out after Round 2.

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  14. I had a decent first round by comparison. 2175pts. Yet all my mid premiums went 120+ except zerrett.
    While happy with their performance I don’t see them all backing it up, yet I have danger grawndy and zerret to improve so should hopefully be a stable round score going fwd.
    So I’m holding backing my premiums who under performed to step up giving my over performers some slack.
    It’s about what your whole team should produce on par week to week. Not 1 player.

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  15. As all saints pointed out before a lot of the top scoring teams didn’t have grawndy, had uniques and a few historically injury prone players. I feel those teams will regret in the long run not starting grawndy, uniques putting up stinkers and the injury prone players either injured or rested. So they all start to hard trade to keep their score up especially through the byes and running out of trades around round 15-16.
    Once the injured players can’t be replaced the teams with trades catch up and pass the fast starters on the back of season long scoring data. Save trades for the run home. Be aggressive but not wasteful.

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