Motts Movers R3, 2012 – The Rucks

Written by Motts on April 19 2012

Premiums

Paddy Ryder ($532,300, 130.3, 88) – Temper your admiration for him with the knowledge that his first 3 opponents have been North, Port and Gold Coast. He’ll be tested in the next 4 by Carlton, then Collingwood (off a 4 day break), Brisbane, then the dreaded Coasters.

Nic Naitanui ($513,800, 107.3, 86) – There’s been a lot of WC players making the Movers this week. Are they good? Or is it just because they’ve played The Dogs, Melbourne and GWS? While you’re deciding, consider that Nic Nat has the third highest average of all rucks. Hawks (at home), Richmond, North, and Essendon coming up.

Midpricers

Matthew Kreuzer ($441,500, 102.7, 78) – Anyone who saw his game against the Pies won’t be surprised at all by his selection as a Mover this week. Still great value at this price. He’ll be tested against 211 in a couple of weeks but by then I predict he’ll be nudging $500k. Week after that he’s got GWS.

Hamish McIntosh ($400,200, 101.3, 9) – And if you thought Krooz was cheap, you’re gonna cream yourself at H-Mac’s price, average & BE. He scored 77 in his first game back but then went for 110 against GWS and then 117 last week against the Cats. The Roos are using him in the ruck and creating plays for him up forward. This has had what I like to term The Roughead Effect on his score. With Sydney and WC coming up in his next 3 he’s got his work cut out for him.

Value Picks

Broc McCauley ($231,500, 80.5, -24) – on the bubble this week after 2 games. If Hale is injured as SC is suggesting he is tonight (Wed) he’s likely to get a lot more game time.

Billy Longer ($161,600, 85, -75) – only 1 game in but with Leuie out for 6 or so weeks he’s going to get games and if he scores like he did against 211 and Freo he may very well keep his spot at the expense of, say, Hudson.

Everyone knows about Giles, Redden and Stephenson so I’ve skipped over them to highlight some of the other Ruck value available.

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12 thoughts on “Motts Movers R3, 2012 – The Rucks”

  1. What are people’s thoughts on reddens final price? After Longer will there b any rookie ruckmen on the bubble or is longer it.

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  2. Final price my best guess probably is around $325-350k, which is around an average of 65 points give or take… The problem is Port has had a few injuries which has given him the opportunity to grab a number 1 ruck role early this season.

    The problem is Lobbe and Renouf could be coming back soon, which might take Redden out of the ruck role a la Brogan v. Giles over in GWS, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his average drops to 50 points per game. Once he clears $300k, it’s probably time to cash him in for a downgrade (if there is one available)

    There probably won’t be a lot of downgrades for rucks unless there happens to be a few injuries to the current number 1’s… If Jolly gets injured, Ceglar might get a shot ($113k), but that’s only if he can beat out Wood. If Maric in Richmond gets injured, Derickx ($113k) could also be a good pick up. Another one that I’m throw out there with my Canadian bias is Mike Pyke ($210k)… If Mummy gets hurt, and Seaby isn’t up to snuff, Pyke could see some time in the ruck.

    Wouldn’t be a bad idea to cash in Redden along with Giles/Stephenson at around the $350k mark(ish) for a premium and a downgrade to a couple of these guys to just sit on your bench…

    Hope it helps!

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  3. Wanted NicNat all pre season but spent the extra and went Big Cox because I had a 1:3 ruck set up and wanted one gun, still kicking myself over that. Big Mac is looking great and is tempting a cox to mac trade but defenatly don’t want to be tradeing my prems out

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  4. H-Mac going to be better than Mumford, Cox, Mcevoy, Kreuzer, Sandilands and Naitanui by the end of the year?

    In other words – Is he going to be in the top 3-4 ruckmen?

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  5. Who do you reckon would be the better replacement for Leuenberger?

    Thumbs Up – Kreuzer
    Thumbs Down – McIntosh

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