The Fallen Premiums R19, 2013

Written by MJ on August 5 2013

Up at crazy hours in the morning due to jetlag flying from London to Melbourne. What better way to fill in the time, but to bring you the Fallen Premiums early this week for you to peruse over breakfast.


Harry Taylor ($447,200; -$17,800, Ave 95.1, BE 76) Harry has been priced at over $485k for 10 weeks between R6-16. He’s now down to an affordable $447k just in time for selection on the eve of SC finals. Geelong play 3 of their last 4 matches at Simonds Stadium, where Taylor has scored 84, 131, 97 and 108 in his performances there this season. There’s a good chance none of your finals opponents will have him, which makes him a very handy POD selection. In reasonable form with scores of 97, 68, 108 and 92 in the last month, I would have no issues with grabbing Taylor this week. What’s more, he plays Port at home this week, whom he scored 134 against when the Cats thumped them in R9.

Hamish Hartlett ($439,100; -$49,900, Ave 91.1, BE 42) A very impressive 120 points in the Showdown to go with his 108 last week announces Hamish’s return to SC prevalence. If price is an issue, you might have to grab him this week despite an upcoming match against Geelong at Simonds Stadium. He managed 94 against them in R9, so maybe it won’t deter you too much.

Charlie Dixon ($423,000; +$29,700, Ave 98.1, BE 55) 3 separate ankle injuries this year might cross him off the list for a few, but Charlie has returned from a lengthy two month layoff with 104 and 102. With one of the easiest finals runs in living memory (Melb, PA, StK, GWS), he could be the ultimate POD. In the 6 games he’s played this year without being red vested, he’s gone 130, 123, 103, 142, 104 and 102. It seems the equation is simple. Stay injury free for the last month of the year and you’ve got yourself a potential GF winning selection at a very affordable price.

Heath Scotland ($377,300; -$158,300, Ave 82.5, BE 4) Have to give Heath a mention for those with not much coinage in the bank. 111 and 119 in the last two weeks off two 30+ possession games from half-back. One of the best SC defenders for the last 7 seasons. Can you back him to keep it up?


Nathan Fyfe ($509,300; +$10,500, Ave 107.4, BE 46) The Teen-Wolf has really turned it on in the last 2 weeks, with massive scores of 131 and 138. Was up around $550k midseason, so is still closer to the bottom of his price curve than the top. With Freo’s finals run, you’d have to back Fyfe to keep producing big scores. A magnificent selection this week against GWS.

Jobe Watson ($502,200; -$145,000, Ave 111, BE 170) Will be reduced in price further next week, but that wouldn’t stop me grabbing Jobe for the points he should net you this week. 115 points against Collingwood was a very respectable return in a big loss for the Bombers. Plays West Coast this week, whom he scored 127 against in R14 in the last game before his collarbone injury. I daresay not many will have held onto him, so he’s a very attractive POD at a bargain price.

Sam Mitchell ($469,500; -$123,100, Ave 105.1, BE 70) A 125 against the Tigers lifts Sam’s appeal as a cheap premium option for those without the cash for Watson or Fyfe. The fact he comes up against both Collingwood and Sydney says no deal for me, but a bargain option nonetheless with 8 scores of 114+ under his belt this year.

Brett Deledio ($434,000; -$190,100; Ave 102.6, BE 83) Back to what we expect from Lids with 109 against the Hawks on Saturday, despite attracting the attention of Jordan Lewis for most of the day. A very cheap $17k upgrade from Tom Mitchell if you were so inclined.


Aaron Sandilands ($488,700; -$113,700, Ave 69.2, BE 131) The 211cm giant is following a similar progression to last year with a return from injury for SC finals. 117, 154 and 163 were his scores in R21-23 in 2012. This season though, he’s come back with scores of 31, 74, 84 and 88. Will he suddenly turn it on against weaker opposition in GWS, Melbourne, Port and StKilda over the next month? You have another week of price decline to monitor his progress, but you’d think a few would pull the trigger this week. An interesting one, which I’d love to hear the thoughts of the community on. At this stage, I’m pro-Sandilands.

Ivan Maric ($452,600; -$154,300, Ave 94.8, BE 110) Can’t select him with much confidence on the back of a 59 last week against Mumford and Pyke of Sydney, but was back on song with a 110 against Hawthorn to go with his 111 three rounds ago.


Matthew Pavlich ($475,200; -$118,700, Ave 79.8, BE 107) Pavlova returns from another suspension this week and makes for another interesting POD Freo option. Hasn’t set the world on fire in the games he’s played this year, in what has been a very interrupted 2013 for Pav, but could very well come out all guns blazing against GWS. Lets not forget he averaged 111 last year!

Jimmy Bartel ($471,400; -$56,000, Ave 105.2, BE 115) Three weeks of sub-100 scores is not what we’ve come to expect of Jimmy this season. Prior to that he’d raised the bat 11 times from his last 13 innings. The story is similar to Harry Taylor though, with 3 of their last 4 at Simonds Stadium, we should see triple figures again from the former Brownlow medallist, at what is his cheapest price all season.


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17 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums R19, 2013”

  1. Staker to Dixon costing me only $16k this week is good enough for me. Like you say, MJ, I wouldn’t want to trust those ankles for a full season, but I’m willing to risk it for a month.

    As far as Sandilands goes, I’m a HUGE yes. Incredibly easy run and the man may be injury prone, but it is the same as Charlie, he only has to make it through four games. He gets a decent number of hit outs to advantage (although not as many as he really should) and when he goes forward he is almost impossible to spoil because, well, 211cm is a whole lotta cms.

    Jobe will be joining me next week, the question is just for who. I’m thinking that I will likely downgrade Hrovat to a minimum non-player* so that I can get Watson for Mitchell. Will give me nine premium midfielders and I will be able to loophole them as well.

    *Joseph Redfern is a seriously good candidate if you want a non-playing, minimum-priced midfielder. GWS play the last Sunday game this week, Saturday night in round 21, the middle Sunday game in round 22 and the last game of round 23. Perfect loophole option for the midfield and captaincy.


  2. Great write up MJ … welcome back in Oz btw.

    I am looking for an upgrade for T.Mitchell and considering Fyfe, Jobe, Griff and Danger.

    On Fyfe … I am concerned he will be rested.
    On Jobe … Will his shoulder hold up?
    Danger … will not kick 4 goals every week. Did he play fwd more to protect his shoulder?
    Griff … can he score over the ton for the next month??

    Any thoughts would be appreciated.


  3. Mj , well done mate , this put a smile on my face after a average weekend (near death car accident )

    I think Charlie Dixon might be my goodes replacement.


  4. Needing to toss Zorko to the lions.

    Pavlich is an intriguing option for a POD although I could theoretically afford a bit more expensive, hmmm…


  5. Thumbs Up – Griffin

    Thumbs Down – Cotchin

    Cotchin did reveal earlier in the week that he was carrying a knee injury earlier in the season.. Seems fine now though..



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