The Fallen Premiums – Rd 2

Written by Chillo on April 5 2018

Still no actual Fallen Premiums to speak of, yet. But I think we all know by now who the prime targets are going to be for that first upgrade, so here they are in one convenient, bite-size package! I’ve thrown in a rough price projection, whose accuracy I take absolutely no responsibility for whatsoever.

PlayerClubPositionProjected
price
change
Projected
price
after Rd 3
Projected
Rd 4 BE
Tom
ROCKLIFF
PTAmid-$75,000$454,000172
Zach
MERRETT
ESSmid-$71,000$529,000126
Brandon
ELLIS
RICdef-$55,000$447,000136
Sam
MENEGOLA
GEEmid/fwd-$54,000$497,000156
Dayne
ZORKO
BRLmid-$54,000$554,000112
Marc
MURPHY
CARmid-$54,000$541,000141
Dayne
BEAMS
BRLmid-$53,000$504,000149
Taylor
ADAMS
COLmid-$51,000$540,000146
Michael
HIBBERD
MELdef-$38,000$507,000129
Marcus
BONTEMPELLI
WBDmid-$33,000$544,000110
Rocky with a footy: a rare sight in 2018.

And a couple of other players to keep an eye out for further down the line:

Matt CROUCH (ADE), mid. Trade target prediction: Round 8.
Patrick RYDER (PTA), ruck. Trade target prediction: Round 11.

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54 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 2”

      1. No doubt i will have another LTI to deal with in the next couple of weeks giving me a good reason to bring him in!

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  1. Great info Chilla.

    As with last week, I thought I’d highlight some of the relevant ‘trade-in’ targets for this week that fit into the ‘under-priced’ bucket:

    DEF (averaging 90+) (<$500k)
    Shaw (112, $458k)
    Sicily (93, $403k)
    Marchbank (93, $381k)

    MID (averaging 105+) (<$600k)
    Selwood (133, $562k)
    Macrae (131, $588k)
    Parker (127, $546k)
    Coniglio (125, $452k)
    Cripps (123, $537k)
    Steven (117, $499k)

    RUC (averaging 100+) (<$550k)
    Witts (118, $518k)
    Gawn (118, $504k)
    Grundy (117, $535k)
    McEvoy (116, $523k)
    Goldstein (114, $521k)
    Naitanui (99, $466k) (sneaks into the list @ 99 average)

    FWD (averaging 95+) (<$525k)
    Curnow (111, $408k)
    McLean (108, $470k)
    Smith (102, $439k)

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      1. Almost made the cut, but not quite the ‘value’ option for what he’s scored so far. Still a worthwhile selection though.

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          1. Again, not quite a ‘value’ option for what he’s scored so far. But yes, still a worthwhile selection.

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              1. A 31-year-old key-position forward who has only ever averaged above 95 once (back in 2013), and whose scores have been declining ever since?

                He only racked up 6 x 100’s last year, and only 2 x 130’s. He’s already scored 1 of each of these in the first 2 rounds.

                If you started him, well done, and you might get lucky and he spikes in price enough for you to trade him out for a tidy profit. But Top 6 FWD for the year? No way.

                No thanks.

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  2. Going JOM to Cogs but need another correctional for the necessary cash.

    TU: Hibberd to Shaw
    TD: Greene (if misses again) to McLean

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    1. Not worth trading Greene if it’s a week-by-week issue. You’ve already missed him last week, so if you trade him now, you’re effectively only trading him out for a 1-week injury.

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      1. I hear ya. Just concerned this week to week thing will go on and on. I got burnt by JJK last year when a week to week thing turned into 7 weeks. But yeah, probably best to hold for this week.

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  3. How does everyone feel about lambert? Can he turn this elite work rate he has into points or do we have to part ways to a Taranto, curnow or Ryan this round..

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    1. I dumped him, BUT I may still reverse.
      If Prestia plays this week, it might be worth keeping him in to see if it brings his scores back to what we’d expect. As our Father preaches, from far away comes a return to the norm. Only two games gone and it’s not like he’s out of form.
      If I do trade him I’ll be using DPP to bring in Oliver. I’ve still got my Danger fund that I will now be using to get the cash working for points. Unless you can get a top Premo in with your trade, I’d sit tight.
      Good luck with it.

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      1. Thanks allsaint,
        Think I’ll sit tight I’ve had ryan and Taranto in different times but reversed each time in hope he will bounce back. But goin to Ryan would free up $350k and create a nice dusty kitty. I was lucky enough to start Oliver Mitchell & danger.

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  4. Is naughton to bonner worth it? My team has had no injuries (other than ZGL) and only other corrective trade I am considering is Hibberd -> Simpson.

    TU: Naughton to Bonner
    TD: Save the trade

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    1. I think Bonner is definitely worth it.
      If he averages 75 from now till his bye he will be worth 380-400k. Naughton will average nowhere near that and be lucky to reach 250k so Bonner gives you extra points and a better upgrade value.

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      1. Problem is it’s still two trades, and you’re not making much money – whatever cash Bonner generates, you need to factor in that you’ve already spent about $100k on the initial trade. So if Bonner makes $140k in cash growth, but you’ve used an extra trade and $100k to get him in…are you really ahead?

        My plan for Naughton is to hold and let him hopefully make his $10-50k over the next few weeks (one 70ish score should do it) then trade him to Higgins on the bubble by swinging Sicily back. Hopefully bank $60k for the trade and grab a rookie who should also then make $150-200k by mid-season.

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      2. Sorry, but your figures are not quite right.

        As it stands, Bonner would need to average about 85 up until the R10 BYE to reach $400k, which would give him about a $140k-$145k profit on his starting price of $257k.

        An average of 75 would see him hit about $365k … not much more than $100k profit.

        Conversely, Naughton only needs to average about 65 up until his R12 BYE to make the same profit ($310k, up from starting price of $167k).

        That’s a 20-point difference in averages between the two, just to achieve the same result. By using a trade, you’d want to be confident that you’d get some value out of it, so ideally want to see that gap expanded to more like a 25-30 point difference. Frankly, I can’t see that happening.

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        1. Naughton should be a slow burner on your bench until his bye round if you think his job security is sound. I would only be trading if you think Bonner can average a minimum of 85 from here on. Naughton will be averaging around 60 by the byes. The $90,000 saving by not trading can be put to better use and 1 trade is saved.
          On a side note only 13 defenders averaged more than 90 last year and a further 6 averaged 85-89.
          Choose wisely.

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    1. I already have Simpson and Laird, so I’ll most likely trade Hibberd to Shaw, because my team structure is working well at the moment.
      I’ll also trade Giles-Langdon to Liam Ryan

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    2. If you’re going to use a luxury trade, you need to get some value out of it. Simpson doesn’t provide any value, Shaw does, and in all likelihood, they could end up scoring fairly similarly from here on.

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    1. Why keep so much cash? Surely better to upgrade either Taranto and/or Fisher to genuine FWD premium options?

      In any case, Mason Cox is likely to be named this week, and he’s only played 1 game, so give him another week to assess.

      I’d suggest Giles-Langdon to Ryan and Lambert to Taranto (or someone better, you can definitely afford it). I’d prioritize players like Heeney, McLean, Billings, then also D. Smith & C. Curnow.

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        1. I never bought into the ‘keep a truckload of cash in the bank for Danger’ theory. Having that much money in the bank is effectively the same as having a premium sitting on your bench the entire time. If you didn’t start with Danger, you now probably need to treat him the same as others, but instead of a standard ‘rookie up, rookie down’, it would be more like ‘rookie down, mid-pricer up’.

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          1. Not necessarily true, I chose to start with under valued mids such as Coniglio and Cripps which enabled me to keep $200k in the kitty for Danger (if he drops enough).

            By your logic though I should have spent that on Kelly and uber premium, who at $150k more is averaging less?

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            1. Yea but you could of used that 200k elsewhere to strengthen your team.

              Its not like your going to trade out Coniglio or Cripps to Danger so you have 200k lying around doing nothing???

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              1. I have a 3, 5, 2, 5 keeper structure and am ranked 2,100.

                One of my most expensive picks Hibberd has been the only let down. Point being, saving a little bit of cash has not at all compromised structure or point generation. Kelly will rocket to 300-400k in no time making a quick one down, one up to Danger very viable early on.

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                1. But the ‘one-up’ you’re going to be using is Coniglio, yes? You’re not going to be able to do a traditional up-down with 2 rookies, so you’re simply swapping one premium for another. You may as well have just started with Dangerfield and copped the 1st round rookie score.

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            2. No, but potentially many people with that much in the bank likely have a ‘speculative’ pick or 2, or a mid-pricer or 2. Cripps definitely DOESN’T fall into that category, and most people would say the same of Coniglio.

              But if you had, say, O’Meara or Armitage, or some other mid-pricer, the cash would have best been used to turn them into a keeper.

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          2. True. But buying a premium doesn’t allow for cash growth.

            In the end you need a mixture of both.

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  5. Got a few lads causing problems.

    Crouch – inj for a few weeks
    Giles-Langdon – inj for a few weeks
    Sicily – suspended
    Greene – inj for (hopefully) 1 week
    Hibberd – forgot how to score

    Options as follows:
    TU: Crouch -> Oliver, Hibberd -> Simpson (pocket $30k)
    TD: Crouch -> Cogs/Parker, Giles-Langdon -> Waterman (pocket $155k/$70k)

    I figure with Greene and Sicily out I’m gonna take a hit in the head to heads anyway. I either jettison Hibberd and get a top shelf mid in for Crouch, or I prioritise the rookie cash growth with Waterman and take a cheaper midfield option.

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    1. Crouch appears to be your must-trade, so Hibberd becomes a luxury trade that, unfortunately, you can’t accommodate right now. Greene and Sicily are only 1 week (Greene may even play this week). This leaves Giles-Langdon as your other must-trade. Not sure about Waterman (J/S issues once JJK comes back in). I assume you have Ryan & Fritsch. Maybe Venables? Or English?

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  6. hibberd- to trade or not? could downgrade to bonner and free up cash for my Danger fund or side swap to yeo/simpson….. or hold.
    T/U hold
    T/D trade

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    1. Are the people trading Hibberd expecting him to drop completely out of the top 8 Defs? At this point, it looks like Simpson, Laird, Hurley and Yeo are locks, with Shaw also looking good, and then question marks over Hurn, Savage, Sicily, Howe, Tuohy, Rance, McGovern and Ryan.

      Even if the lack of kick-ins is a permanent change, and Hibberd drops his overall average, it may mean he becomes a top 8-10, rather then top 4.

      If you take out Doc, Adams, Williams and Hibberd from last year, the tenth highest average was Hurn with 89.

      So if you’re trading him, its not because you don’t think he can average 100, its because you don’t think he can average between 89 (10th / Hurn) – 93 (6th / Roberton).

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      1. Agreed. It’s definitely a ‘luxury’ trade (assuming no other major issues to deal with). Considering how much he’ll likely drop in price, you could potentially re-assess him again in 5-6 weeks. His scoring will be more evident, Tom McDonald will return to the team, etc. Plus, he’ll likely be significantly cheaper.

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        1. Do you mean trade him out, then re-assess when he’s cheaper?

          As a side note, TMac is very likely to play forward, so probably won’t impact Hibberd.

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          1. I agree with you, I’m going to keep Hibberd as I picked him for the year and going to stick with him as its only been 2 weeks.

            But Dahlhaus on the other hand, killed me last year and I ran with him again (silly I know), would you say the same situation as Hibberd or offload him?

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            1. Dahlhaus was always a risky pick this year, not knowing how the Bulldogs were going to play him. I’d put him in the same basket as Hibberd, under the banner of ‘role change’, so it would not be a horrible idea to consider trading either / both out, nor would it be a horrible idea to keep either / both.

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          2. Yes. He’ll definitely drop in price somewhat over the next few weeks, and if he reverts to his old role in the meantime, and starts scoring 95+ again, you can then consider bringing him back in.

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            1. Not sure I can go with you on that one, David Johnson. If he averages around 85-90, his price will settle somewhere between 455-480K. This would free up 70-90K from his starting price, which is handy, but not worth a trade.

              This scenario will only ‘free up’ 90K; you’re not making 90K as you already started with it. As has been noted many times before, you’ll only lose money if you trade him out.

              As I mentioned on another thread, I think he’s out of form. His disposals and efficiency are down. I’m going to roll the dice and say worst case scenario he ends up my D6. It sucks I paid 545K for a D6, but not worth burning the trade over.

              Of course, he could do what Heater did last year, and then I’m completely screwed.

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              1. Fair call. My thinking was more that I don’t see him reverting to 90+ scores for at least a few weeks, so in theory, he’ll drop quite a bit more than $90k. By that stage, he becomes a ‘fallen premium’, and if the cash saved is spent wisely, then it’s definitely not a loss.

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  7. Who to get as a forward rookie with so many options.

    Have Bailey Fritsch and Liam Ryan so:

    Zac Langdon – > ?

    Billy Gowers? Dan Venables? Tim English? Jarrod Garlett?

    Ruled out Waterman with JJK tarnishing his job security but let me know below who out of the options above has best job security.

    Cheers, much appreciated.

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