The Fallen Premiums – Rd 3

Written by Chillo on April 10 2019

A somewhat abbreviated edition of the Fallen Premiums this week, given we’ve just experienced our first price changes of the year. It seems a lot of the good players are playing well, while the few that aren’t still have a bit further to fall before they become viable trade targets. However, I have managed to pick out a few names to take note of, particularly for those of you who’ve got the irrits with an underperforming premo in your team and are looking for a sneaky sideways trade.

DEFENDERS

Jeremy HOWE (COL), $496 600 (-$600), average 97, BE 90 – Jumpin’ Jeremy hasn’t always been noted as a consistent scorer in the past, but opening his season with scores of 89, 99 and 103 is encouraging. Howe has gone at 90+ ppg for the past three seasons in a row, and someone with his contested marking ability is more than capable of hitting that standard again in 2019. 

It was only a matter of time until the scanners caught up with Howe.

Backing it up…..
Kade Simpson, $517K, BE 170
Rory Laird, $556K, BE 154
James Sicily, $544K, BE 144

MIDFIELDERS

Zach MERRETT (ESS), $533 400 (-$11.4K), average 98, BE 86 – A pre-season Supercoach favourite until suffering a “nasty knee injury”, as reported by Dr Tom Browne in January (it was actually a sprained ankle). Merrett came under heavy fire for his lacklustre round 1 performance, but scores of 109 and 120 since then have Zach back in the sights of savvy coaches. Now a huge POD at less than 4% ownership, Merrett is a proven scorer and exceptional value.

Limbo land….
Stephen Coniglio, $571K, BE 182
Dustin Martin, $520K, BE 180
Nat Fyfe, $605K, BE 169
Elliot Yeo, $539K, BE 160

RUCKS

No notable fallen premiums in the ruck department just yet, although Ben McEvoy ($554K, average 109, BE 100) is definitely an under-rated point of difference early in the season.

Timberrrr…….
Max Gawn, $657K, BE 144
Toby Nankervis, $524K, BE 142

FORWARDS

Isaac HEENEY (SYD), $519 200 (-$10.0K), average 96, BE 101 – Show of hands, who flicked Isaac last week? Unfortunately more than 22,000 coaches watched on in horror as Heeney rediscovered his touch in round 3, burning the Blues for four goals and 137 points. His price tag still dropped ten grand, but Heeney faces the porous Demons defence on Thursday night, making his break-even very gettable.

Robbie GRAY (PTA), $516 100 (-$9.4K), average 96, BE 107 – The bad news is that Robbie is still spending a significant amount of game time in the forward line, with 38% of his disposals in the F50 in 2019. The good news: he’s still scoring well anyway! Recording 91, 106 and 91 in his three games so far, Gray is playing well in a team that is playing a new brand of fast, free-flowing footy, and faces the severely under-manned Tigers at home this weekend.

He’s so good, he can make footballs levitate.

Forward thinking….
Justin Westhoff, $510K, BE 214
Lance Franklin, $487K, BE 148
David Mundy, $479K, BE 142
Josh Dunkley, $494K, BE 135

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17 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 3”

  1. I will be the first to put my hand up and admit that I traded Heeney.

    However, my reasoning was not that he was out of form but that similar to Billings he scores a lot better in wins than losses. Putting up a big score in a game they controlled against the Blues does not change my view.

    I will be watching closely.

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  2. I traded Heeney in Rnd3 to Boak but I could say I didn’t lose much and I could say it is a win because Boak wasn’t affected by Wines and he only kicked two goals whilst Heeney kicked four which defo helped his score and Heeney only beat Boak by a single point. I doubt Heeney will do it most weeks whilst Boak seems to be pumping out big scores even with Wines in. If you traded Heeney to Boak you would still be pretty happy

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    1. So you mean you will replace smith for either Simmo or Laird?

      Any context for that as in do you have any evidence suggesting these 2 will pickup their output?

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      1. That’s typically how the game works.

        Almost impossible to fill all the spots in your team with the highest-scoring, most expensive in-form players. So you start the players you think will be consistent scorers, along with the players you think will gain the most value in the first half of the year, and then during the season you upgrade rookies to players with a proven history of scoring big points who for one reason or another have dropped in value.

        If you do that well, you can usually also bring in some of the top-end scorers you missed out on as well. But if you chase the top priced options first, you can often find yourself limited to “decent” mid-pricers when filling the last few spots in your side.

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  3. tigers would be so angry @ the moment , they threw every thing @ dusty’s last contract to get him to stay , a person with good character would say either i’ll take the $$ & go hard as i can for the tigers or say i’ll take a different clubs offer & go as hard as i can for them , he has chosen to take a suitcase full of $$ from the tigs & do bugger all , couldn’t even be bothered laying tackles , obviously that elbow was a deliberate effort to get a holiday & recon he would be spew’n the tigs challenged the decision , there would be 17 other clubs thanking their lucky stars he didn’t end up at their club

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    1. Or he’s getting frustrated that without Rance/Riewoldt/Caddy and with Lynch playing before he’s ready, the expectations on him are unrealistic? Couple that with the fact that he’s getting a shitload of opposition attention and bugger-all protection from his teammates.

      Richmond won a flag with their “champion team, not team of champions” schtick. Looks like maybe they were a little more reliant on some of their champions than they thought.

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        1. I have to disagree PJ.

          The reason Richmond are really in trouble is they threw heaps of money at Tom Lynch.

          To afford it, they traded away depth players in Lloyd, Miles and Conca.

          No one could of predicted the amount of injuries at the Tigers. But, to blame it all on Dusty is a bit rich.

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  4. Will be keeping a close eye on K Simpson, H Andrews and J Westhoff over the next fortnight/month as they could potentially drop below 450,000 to the low 400,000’s and should be great selections considering the potential lack of cash generation from several rookies.

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  5. I’ve gone Fyfe to Neale.

    Seems logical, but could also go Merrett or Dahlhaus and bank about 300k for another upgrade in a week or two.

    T/U Neale
    T/D Value + 300k

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