The Fallen Premiums – Rd 3

Written by Chillo on April 11 2018

Three rounds have come to pass, and for Supercoach that means price changes. Identifying the Fallen Premiums this week poses a bit of a challenge though; ideally, I would try to name some economical options for your upgrades. However, at this early stage, players who have dropped significantly in price are probably not realistic trade targets (does anyone want a Zerrett yet?).

So instead, I’ve tried to identify players who may not necessarily have dropped significantly in price, but who I fully expect to appreciate in value in coming weeks, and thereby provide you gains in that way.

DEFENDERS

Jeremy HOWE (COL), $510 100 (-$7.5K), average 97, BE 90 – A pre-season diagnosis of “grumbly calf” (apparently that’s the official medical term for the condition) interrupted Jumpin’ Jeremy’s 2018 preparations, which was reflected in his opening round 78. Has bounced back well in the past fortnight, and is a very viable POD at only 5% ownership.

Shane SAVAGE (STK), $490 800 (+$11.1K), average 103, BE 74 – Savage shapes as that rarest of beasts this season: the mature-age breakout. Has continued his excellent form in the back half of last year and this year’s JLT series, compiling scores of 92, 97 and 121. Who knows if he can keep it going, but right now he looks like excellent value!

Backing it up…
Elliot Yeo, $520K, BE 177
Michael Hurley, $541K, BE 137
Michael Hibberd, $507K, BE 137 

All puns aside…how does he do that????

MIDFIELDERS

Nathan FYFE (FRE), $597 800 (-$0.1K), average 118, BE 75 – If the 2015 Brownlow medallist was a bargain at the start of the year, he’s an absolute, bonafide, drop-everything-and-get now. Brad Ebert pinned him down to 75 points in the first round, but the champ has answered with 120 and 160 in the past two weeks. This will be the last time you see Fyfe’s price with a 5 in front of it for the foreseeable future. 48% of you out there don’t have him – you should expect that number to plummet before this week is out!

Dayne ZORKO (BRL), $549 300 (-$59.6K), average 76, BE 129 – Zorko owners were calling the cops after the Magician’s disappearing act in the first round. Has compiled 105 and 92 in the two games since then, and that first round “effort” drops out of his price cycle this weekend. Zorko’s break-even is hefty, but well within reach for a player of his ability.

Limbo land…
Patrick Dangerfield, $750K, BE 216
Lachie Neale, $562K, BE 161
Josh Kelly, $602K, BE 159
Zach Merrett, $515K, BE 158

RUCK

Sam JACOBS (ADE), $515 200 (-$11.1K), average 96, BE 108 – Like the condiment that is his namesake, Jacobs ain’t flashy, he just gets it done. Sauce probably doesn’t have the ceiling of some of his more illustrious rucking counterparts, but you can rely on him to pull his weight every week, and there’s no injury niggles or dual ruck dramas to worry about here.

Timberrrr….
Matthew Kreuzer, $604K, BE 199

FORWARDS

Sam MENEGOLA (GEE), $520 900 (-$30.9K), average 86, BE 125 – Sam gave a not-so-subtle reminder of what he’s capable of against the Eagles, racking up 29 touches and 128 points. With GAJ seemingly out of the picture for a few weeks at least, the road is cleared for Menegola to do his thing in the midfield. Can he re-produce the numbers that made him the highest-priced forward in the game at the start of the season?

Luke DAHLHAUS (WBD), $478 600 (-$19.9K), average 84, BE 120 – Dahlhaus has been one of the safer options in Supercoach forward lines for a few seasons now, although he notably struggled towards the end of 2017. He’s certainly a barometer for the Dogs, and not surprisingly he tonned up in their upset win over the Bombers last week. You can probably wait a week on Dahlhaus, but he’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

Forward thinking….
Jack Billings, $493K, BE 160
Chad Wingard, $486K, BE 151
Lance Franklin, $562K, BE 141

Sam even found time to practice some unorthodox dance moves
17
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

17 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 3”

  1. Awesome stuff Chillo.

    I’d also think people should be looking at the guys who still have very low B/E’s, and still pose viable selections for their respective lines (at least for 1 more week), such as:

    DEF
    Luke Ryan ($450k, B/E 47, Avg 104) – Not for me (2nd year player), but great value
    James Sicily ($403k, B/E 53, Avg 93) – Only 2 games, so still on the bubble

    MID
    Stephen Coniglio ($499k, B/E 53, Avg 124) – Still a MUST HAVE at under $500k
    Nat Fyfe – As per Chillo, will be well over $600k over the next 2 weeks, jump on

    RUC
    Brodie Grundy ($566k, B/E 44, Avg 129) – Cox clearly not an issue as 2nd ruck
    Callum Sinclair ($470k, B/E 52, Avg 111) – Sole ruck, but easy opponents so far (?)

    FWD
    Jesse Hogan ($438k, B/E -10, Avg 116) – Won’t last, but good for cash & points
    Michael Walters ($499k, B/E 49, Avg 110) – A bit risky for me @ $500k
    Jack Darling ($422k, B/E 49, Avg 97) – A solid option up forward for WCE
    Toby McLean ($493k, B/E 53, Avg 110) – Plenty of MID time for this FWD, tick

    20

    2
    1. Thanks DJ. I agree with the notes you’ve given.
      Sinclair’s numbers look great, until you see what he was up against in those three games (Naitanui 60% TOG, ruckless Port, injured Lobb).
      The Sicilian will score well, but expect him to do something stupid at some stage, probably more than once actually.
      Darling’s numbers may dip once JJK comes back.
      McLean looks fantastic. With Libba out, guess who’s getting that mid-time?

      9

      0
      1. Terrific write up chillo! Of petracca, curnow & Hogan whose the best option. I will probably have to replace lobb if his injury is 2+ weeks on the sideline. Also are Richards and Henry good options to replace Liam Ryan and possibly naughton? Cheers guys

        3

        0
        1. Probably best to stick these question in the “Trade Talk” thread, you’ll get some solid responses there.

          4

          1
      2. Cheers. Agreed, I wouldn’t be picking Sinclair myself. His next 8 games include Jacobs, Goldstein, McEvoy, Sandilands, Martin & Kreuzer. Ouch.

        Completely forgot about JJK for Darling, so yes, probably best to ignore me on that one.

        3

        1
  2. Like the look of McLean from the Bulldogs. Seems to be playing almost fulltime in the midfield. For me, it was either him or Walters at the start of the season and both have scored the exact same 331 points (110.3 ave) so can’t complain.

    I’ve heard McLean hasn’t seen much attention at all so far over the first three rounds from the opposition. After his great start, is there a chance opposition coaches pay more attention to him in the coming rounds? How would he handle the attention or even a hard tag?

    Some food for thought.

    0

    3
    1. Looking at the numbers of Macrae and Hunter, and with Wallis now back as well, I doubt he’ll get much attention for some time yet. Here’s hoping 🙂

      8

      0
    2. If I was going to tag one of the dogs, it would be Macrae, and if not him then Hunter. Of course I am not an AFL coach.

      11

      0
  3. Brilliant write up. Thinking I’m regretting not getting Fyfe. Is J Kelly to Fyfe worth a trade considering I’ve done none so far? Currently 880 overall

    1

    12
    1. Fyfe was the difference in our league game Matteo.

      Full disclosure too mate, I’ve done the SCT Cup draw for next week already (leaving blank spots for our wildcard entrants) and we’ve drawn each other!! I’m going to bill it as match of the round. You get a chance for revenge and I get a chance to own you again.

      7

      0
    2. I can’t see it being worth it at this stage, unless you see Kelly really dropping away in form and numbers.

      Wait for an inevitable injury to come and then bring him in. You’ll have to pay a bit more for him, but he could also get injured next week.

      If someone asks you to swap a premo for premo, just say ‘no’.

      6

      0
      1. Cheers for the advice everyone. My gut is telling me since I picked him he will avg about 100. Is that enough, not sure. He hurt me not having him last year. This year may be the opposite.

        And RB, thanks for the heads up. I’ve taken the lads on a secret boot camp and played your theme song over and over all week. That’ll teach em to lose

        4

        3
        1. Opportunity cost again. Zigged when you should have zagged.

          At least you will have trades left at the end of season.

          I think Kelly I’d only going to be a 100-105 point player this year. 110 max. Normally not enough to burn a trade over, but when that starts turning an M2 or 3 into an M7 or 8 it’s gotta hurt.

          Believe me I’m sharing your pain as I have him and Zorko.

          1

          0
  4. I wonder how many will pick Merrett if he starts going alright. I’m stubbornly holding him because he won’t be tagged every week and because there’s no one you can trade him to who is guaranteed to out perform him.
    But I f I had a time machine I’d go back to last week and go Merrett to Titch instead of Naughton to Bonner.

    1

    1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *