The first month of the 2020 competition is done! Yes it was a long time coming, but we’re four rounds in and hopefully you’re getting close to your first upgrade for the year. The Fallen Premiums is always a good place to start your search for trade targets, and this week’s mob features two Brownlow medallists, four premiership flags, 16 All-Australian nods, twelve best and fairests, and a Rising Star winner.
This, now this is some high quality gear. Here are the Fallen Premiums!
DEFENDERS
Daniel RICH (BRL), $ 495 900 (-$29.9K), avg 91, BE 88 – It seems like “Bam Bam” has been in the game for an eternity, but the Brisbane backman with the bombastic left boot has only just celebrated his 30th birthday. Coming off a career-best season, Rich has been consistent rather than brilliant in 2020, but has scored 102 and 96 in the past fortnight. With the Lions sure to face stronger opposition in the coming weeks, the ball should be down the defensive end a little more often which will enable Rich to do what he does best – get it and then belt it back up the other end of the field. Great POD at 2% ownership.
Rory LAIRD (ADE), $487 800 (-$38K), avg 88, BE 88 – Is there anything more worthless on a footy field than witches hats? Discarded water bottles, maybe? Whatever it is, the Crows have been doing a very good impression of it lately, their putrid form setting them up for some wooden cutlery at season’s end. Perennial Supercoach favourite Laird is trying his best to turn the tide, but like many of his teammates he has not performed to the same level as recent years. But with Father Dougal’s sermon about “returning to long term averages” in mind, here is an opportunity to pick up Rory with a nice discount – before he starts making up for lost time.
Backing it up….
Bachar Houli, $553K, BE 141
Jake Lloyd, $589K, BE 137
Shannon Hurn, $529K, BE 130
MIDFIELDERS
Marcus BONTEMPELLI (WBD), $575 900 (-$47.1K), avg 108, BE 69 – A bit of early season lethargy was busted wide open by the Bont last week against the Swans, piling up 14 contested possessions and two majors to count towards his 166 point demolition. He hasn’t yet discovered the consistency of a true uber premium, however Bontempelli has the lofty ceiling to compensate as demonstrated in 2019 when he broke 140 points on five separate occasions. His ability to win the ball on the inside and distribute with languid skills is topped off by his knack for getting forward, taking marks and hitting the scoreboard. Bont’s price bottoms out this week, so trade now or forever hold your peace!
Tom MITCHELL (HAW), $594 500 (-$36.4K), avg 113, BE 104 – After spending the best part of a year recuperating from a shocking broken leg, rumours of a sore shoulder had seen the market go cold on Tom Terrific. But he bounced back impressively with a four quarter effort in an otherwise forgettable game against the Roos, notching 143 from 22 possessions and, most importantly, eight tackles. That’s more tackles than Mitchell managed in total in the first three games of the year, and is a great indicator of how he’s feeling from a health perspective. Anytime you can get a Brownlow winner for south of $600K is a good time! Speaking of which….
Patrick DANGERFIELD (GEE), $559 400 (-$66.1K), avg 100, BE 108 – Before last weekend, Pat’s dance card thus far this season read: de Boer, Shiels, Cripps. That potentially makes for some stinky Supercoach numbers and thus it proved. Class will prevail however, and the old Danger returned to rack up 140 against the Dees, including ten contested possessions and a goal. His days of contending for Brownlow medals may be done, but Dangerfield is still prime Supercoach stock and is just about impossible to pass up at this price. For those of you combing the ranks for a Fyfe replacement, the idea that you can get Dangerfield and bank $110,000 must seem too good to be true!
Jack MACRAE (WBD), $606 600 (-$62.3K), avg 105, BE 125 – Here’s a Jeopardy question for today: Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and Lachie Neale. Get it? That’s right, “who are the only three players to score more Supercoach points than Jack Macrae in the past two seasons?”! Nobody can possibly doubt the running Dog’s ability to find the Sherrin with numbers like that to back him up. The obvious question mark here comes in the form of SCT’s favourite mastermind Mr Magnets, who could not resist the urge to jam one of his best ball winners out on the cold confines of the flank earlier this year. But fear not, intrepid coaches! With bonafide wingman Lachie Hunter soon to return from his prang-induced suspension and Josh Dunkley sadly licking his wounds from the sidelines, Jackson should find himself back in the guts soon enough and posting those numbers we all know and love him for.
Limbo land….
Stephen Coniglio, $521K, BE 165
Elliott Yeo, $495K, BE 156
Nat Fyfe, $671K, BE 150
Patrick Cripps, $609K, BE 147
Josh Kelly, $595K, BE 134
Jack Steele, $559K, BE 136
RUCKS
Jarrod WITTS (GCS), $535 200 (-$6.1K), avg 105, BE 18 – Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past fortnight, you’ll know that the young Suns are flying and their trusty tapper is at the centre of it all. We’re all salivating over Gawny and Grundy and Goldy, but Witts has quietly gone bang-bang in the past two weeks with scores of 147 and 144, leaving him with a pitiful break-even of just 18. He comes up against rucking novice Darcy Fort this week so you should expect a massive price increase for the former Pie come Sunday night. Despair not, unfortunate Naismith owners, all’s not lost – Witts might just be the affordable stepping stone you’re after to get you to one of those uber premium rucks that everyone wants.
Timberrr…..
Brodie Grundy, $686K, BE 158
Reilly O’Brien, $575K, BE 153
FORWARDS
Tom HAWKINS (GEE), $455 200 (-$9.8K), avg 89, BE 72 – Yeah I know, suggesting key forwards at this stage of the season is a real Supercoach no-no and what the hell am I thinking? The truth is that most of the decent forward options this year are either midpricers in the middle of breakout seasons (Simpkin, Smith, Petracca, Butler…) or they appear in the list of the “soon-to-be-fallen” below.
But the Tomahawk has been far from disgracing himself despite the staccato approach the Cats have taken to their footy this year, and is fully capable of posting a 95+ season. The trick with the spearheads is to get them at the bottom of their price cycle, before they net a big haul and their price tag starts climbing the hill again – this week is your chance with Hawkins.
Forward thinking….
Lachie Whitfield, $484K, BE 186
Connor Rozee, $462K, BE 184
Gary Ablett, $508K, BE 157
Dustin Martin, $531K, BE 146
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
Thoughts on Wingard? Obviously not fallen but still priced low for what he’s scoring. Only thing is in his 3 120+ games he’s kicked 3 goals in each, the game he scored 60, he kicked none… can he keep this scoring up?
Yeah. Great point, Rich.
Always wary of FWDs options reliant on goals rather than a solid midfield role. Wingard had 6 CBAs over the weekend btw.
I think the chad had 8 odd score involvements as well
Bruest out will get even less midfield time now
Spot on Nateo, I would wait one more week for Wingard. He attended 6 centre bounces last game. With Breust out 4-5 weeks, he will definitely play more key forward. More goals maybe but less disposals surely.
expect the unexpected from clarko
ha may well play patton & lewis fwd & run the chad on the ball
I was actually hoping no-one would mention the Chad 🙂 He was my number one trade target for this week. But there are good points raised here about Breust’s injury and the possible flow on from that affecting Wingard’s mid time. Team sheet will be interesting to see tomorrow night.
I will say to anyone that might be keen on him – unless you’re cashed up to the gills, you can’t really afford to wait because Wingard has a BE of 20. He’ll be at least $30K dearer next week.