Trade or Hold – Round 7

Written by Hot Sauce on May 3 2019

Round 6 brings the end of the festival of football we’ve been spoilt with and brings the beginning of the more traditional fixture, providing us coaches with a bit more time to lock in teams with the full teams already released.

Rookies:

 

  1. Sam Collins – Def – $311,600

The costly rookie flirted with some big scores during rounds 2 to 4 but his inconsistency is worrying and with some fallen premo’s now available, seems like the right time to upgrade.

Verdict: Trade

  1. Jack Scrimshaw – Def – $314,500

Will most likely increase in coaches trading out since he has been managed this week and will miss round 7. To most, that would suggest a good time to trade out, but if you are not hit with too many outs down back, I would suggest keeping with the feeling the youngster will get better as the season goes.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Jordan Clark – Def – $240,900

Clark is currently sitting on the extended bench for Sunday’s clash so coaches owning him will be sweating on his selection, especially if they also have Whitfield and/or Scrimshaw (like myself). I’m punting on an 80-90+ game in the coming weeks to inject further cash generation.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Charlie Constable – Mid – $303,000

Another who is throwing up questions to coaches after being omitted this week after looking like a potential bye round rookie keeper. Might be premature to trade at this stage but would depend on your players available.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Tom Atkins – Mid – $232,500

He still has a little bit of cash to make and the fact he is still named in the Cats team suggests he needs to stay, but if you have coverage in the middle, he could be one to downgrade to Hayes.

Verdict: Trade

  1. Michael Gibbons – Mid – $233,200

A negative breakeven confirms his spot for at least one more week. Not dependable to score well again but let him sit on your bench to make some cash.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Willem Drew – Fwd/Mid – $293,700

Drew should be locked in for at least another week or two and with his ability to get a big score it could be longer and until the byes.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Matthew Parker – Fwd – $225,100

His cash generation has slowed to a dribble in the last few weeks which is frustrating all of his owners but there is still more to be earned and no rookie downgrade options as yet.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Gryan Miers – Fwd – $299,400

Plenty of cash left in Miers especially over the next few weeks. Continues to stay in the ladder leading Cats line-up so if he is good enough for them who am I to tell you otherwise.

Verdict: Hold

Mid-Pricers:

 

  1. Tom Liberatore – Mid – $488,200

If Libba was selected in your team to make you some money while scoring well above his price point then firstly, well done; secondly, it’s time to move him on for one of the fallen premiums that are more likely to finish top 10 of their position.

Verdict: Trade

  1. Brad Crouch – Mid – $466,500

Most likely just like Libba, Brouch was in your side to make some cash as a stepping stone to a premium midfielder but unlike Libba there is still some cash to be made for you.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Dom Sheed – Mid – $420,100

Another like the two above, but Sheed has completely dropped in output and would certainly warrant being traded out to either a fallen premium or a rookie cash cow.

Verdict: Trade

  1. Jade Gresham – Fwd – $436,700

Gresham has certainly slipped in output the past few weeks but I’m guessing if you have him, he was picked as an outside chance to be a top 10 forward. Should two poor games change that? It shouldn’t, and that’s why he shouldn’t be traded.

Verdict: Hold

  1. Nic Newman – Def – $415,100

Newman has been cruelled by a knee injury that has him set to potentially miss the next three weeks and with that, a likely spot in your SC teams. Unfortunately, he doesn’t look set to make us a pile of cash but with some fallen premium defenders now ready for picking.

Verdict: Trade

  1. Ryan Burton – Def – $409,400

The kid hasn’t quite lived up to some coaches’ expectations and with a high breakeven it’s time to cash in the small cash earned and upgrade to one of the many premium defenders on offering.

Verdict: Trade

Premiums

 

It’s always better to hold onto your premium players, you picked them for a reason and unless there is a significant role change, lengthy suspension or an injury obtained, you should hold. Considering no premiums fall into the above lists, there are no recommendations to trade on any this week.

Good luck coaches!

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24 thoughts on “Trade or Hold – Round 7”

  1. Would you advise holding libba for one more week in the hopes that he cracks the ton or will he be on a downward spiral from here on?

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      1. I’m hoping last week was an aberration. My plan has been to hold him until his bye and reassess; hopefully that doesn’t need to change.

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    1. Would all depend on your team needs this week. Is there other players that need to be traded out more? Would trading Libba help you get the better players you want?

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      1. I remember last year where I traded Kelly too early after 1 poor score thinking that he has reached his potential and it came back to haunt me, don’t want to make the same mistake this year with libba.
        Totally understand he is a stepping stone but his scoring potential is deffinately high..

        Decision is Soo tough!!

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  2. To anyone thinking of trading Whitfield – just don’t.

    For the sake of two trades, the money you make/save is negligible to the point of irrelevance. Better to use those two trades to turn Scrimshaw and any other rookie into Hayes and a premo defender.

    Assuming a backline like:
    Lloyd, Whitfield, Williams, Smith, Hore, Duursma (Scrimshaw, Clark)

    If you’ve got a rookie worth $240k you can downgrade to Hayes, you can upgrade Scrimshaw to Crisp. If you’ve got bank, or a more expensive rookie to cull, you might be able to nab Laird or Ryan. If you’re really lucky, Sicily or Hurn could be within your reach. I’ll assume you’ve got combination of some money in the bank, and someone worth closer to $300k to cull, and go with Laird as the preferred fallen premo.

    Trade 1 – Downgrade +$150k
    Trade 2 – Upgrade -$220k

    Either way. Two trades, and your backline for next week is:
    Lloyd, Laird, Williams, Smith, Hore, Duursma (Whitfield, Clark)

    And when Whitfield returns it’s:
    Lloyd, Whitfield, Laird, Williams, Smith, Hore (Duursma, Clark)

    If you trade Whitfield now. Your playing backline this week is exactly the same.
    You’ve got an extra $40k in the bank, but still need to find $150k+ to get Whitfield back after his price drops to ~$500k.

    Trade 1 – Whitfield out +$40k
    Trade 2 – Downgrade. +150k
    Trade 3 – Whitfield in -$200k

    You probably come out somewhere around $80-90k ahead. At the cost of an extra trade. You’re also losing points next week, and perhaps the week after, while you wait for Whitfield to drop in price. Whereas if you hold him, you get him back as soon as he’s fit.

    HOOOOLD THE PREMOOOOS!

    Especially when it’s likely just a one week injury.

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    1. Especially when you have the beautiful Moore/Burgess dpp. Straight swap down back and Parker on field. Reverse when whitfield back.

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    2. I don’t disagree with the rule of not trading out premos without a good reason, but a lot of people have Whitfield as their number 1 defender (ie. no one in the Lloyd position). Some people like me are also unfortunate enough to have 3 non playing defenders this week so are facing a big donut without somewhat drastic measures.

      I’m ranked just outside the top 1000 so have decided to take a risk. I’m hanging onto Collins this week then trading Whitfield to Laird to avoid a donut. This enables me to still do the Butters to Tim Kelly upgrade I’ve been planning for the last two weeks.

      I’m of the opinion Whitfield maybe misses more than one week, and/or doesn’t score huge when he returns. He has a massive break even so I’m confident I will be able to get him back in before the byes.

      There’s also the fact that there’s no good defender rookie downgrades currently on the bubble, and I don’t share others’ confidence in Hayes.

      It’s definitely a risk, but the converse would be wearing a donut or trading in a suspect rookie too early right now. It would also mean missing Kelly this week with a very low breakeven.

      I’m doing it.

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  3. In need of some opinion from the fraternity.
    Had done my trades which i was happy with before the teams,
    That being
    Butters-Atkins
    Fyffe-Hayes
    It means no looping of Scisily and Hayes-Stack -Constable.
    Should i have the need to amend or roll with the punches as i still have cover on all lines, or should Scisily and Constable be part of the trading instead.
    Team
    Laird,Smith,Williams,Moore,Dursma,Hore-Scis,Burgess
    Cripps,Trealor,Fyfe,Mcrouch,Brashaw,Lib,Rock,Stack,-Con,hayes,scott
    Gawn,Goldie
    Danger,Heeney,Kelly,Dunk,Rozee,Baker-Drew,Setters
    22 Trades left 100,000 in the kitty and some fat cows ready to cull in the weeks ahead,especially the back-line where some juice is starting to open up with whitfield , loyd etc.
    Have i gone early on butters as constables future is now clouded ?
    Does Hayes care about footy or horse-racing ?
    Appreciate any feedback
    Thanks in advance

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  4. It all makes perfect sense BB.

    I’m just not sure trading in Laird is a good idea, if you already own three defensive R14 Bye players. Whitfield, Smith, Williams.

    If you are really light on R14 Bye players over the rest of your team it could just work out. I’m not, so will be avoiding Laird until I see how he goes post byes with Milera back.

    I’m tossing up between blowing my budget on Sicily or going Crisp and saving the extra cash for next week.

    Thanks for the wise words on holding Premo’s.

    My personal cut off is 3 weeks. If they are going to miss more than that,then they’re out.

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    1. Fair points, and now is a good time to start thinking more about bye structure. Laird could easily be replaced with Luke Ryan in the above example.

      Gets a little bit grey when you consider Crisp instead.

      Whitfield – Crisp = +$140k.
      Hore – Whitfield = -????

      If Hore gets to $350k, and Whitfield drops under $500k, you can do it in two trades over a three week block.

      Two trades. Breakeven on dollars. Other rookies can still be cashed in. You effectively use Whitfield as a free cow. Danger is that Whitfield scores more than 210 points across his next two games, and never drops below $500k. Then you’re losing dipping into funds from another downgrade.

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      1. I stupidly traded Hore for Butters when he was dropped for R3.

        For me Whitfield is not going anywhere. Mucking around with trading Premo’s in and out ,due to high BE’s ( as a few have done trading Gawn or Goldie down to ROB etc ) is fraught with danger, and never quite works out how we imagined.

        I will be slowly picking off Fallen Premo’s and saving as many trades as possible.

        This week I will be trading Scrimshaw to Sicily, and Collins down to Hayes.
        ( Thats if Clark is named.)

        I thought about Crisp but Sicily is a top 4 defender for sure ,and he suits my Bye structure much better. I think he is worth the extra cash.

        That will make my backline :

        Sicily,Williams, B.Smith, Moore, Duursma, Clark.
        ( Whitfield, Burgess )

        This will leave me with 24 trades and $202k

        Hopefully I can go 1 up / 1 down for the next few weeks, if the Rookies present themselves.

        Planning to get to the byes with only Walsh and 3/4 rookies on field.

        Best laid plans eh 🙂

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    1. I’m holding. There has to be some point where north pulls the pin and starts playing the young guys. And that might come sooner rather than later given their current form.

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      1. I’m holding…as long as other bubble boys keep presenting like hayes…in for cousins. Scott is a great c loop this week playing Sunday.

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    2. Holding and using for looping but I now have Constable sitting on the pine as well. One more mid out and I will trade one of them.

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    3. Three more scores around the 50 mark and he can be flipped for $100k. Not perfect, but it’s better than only getting $50k out of him. Feel like he’ll get another chance at some point, and I’ve got plenty of good cash cows who should be ready to cull in the coming weeks that I’m happy to let Scott simmer for a while.

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  5. What do people think of L. Young from the Dogs. Averaging 47 not ideal but still worth bringing him in for Collins?

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    1. I’m going a week early on Answerth instead of Young, personally. Scoring potential for Young isn’t great and neither is his job security. Answerth has just as much chance of being dropped as Young, but at least he has a tasty DPP swing.

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