Trade Talk – Rd6

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 22 2018

We’re carrying on as normal here at SCT……imagine that the Round has come to an end……who’s coming into your side ahead of Rd6 and who is making way?

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122 thoughts on “Trade Talk – Rd6”

    1. Only kidding , just pissed off with so called premo scores this week including titch, Mclean best forward of 5 so far with a 71

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    1. Bugger waiting until next week with the news Frost won’t play this week for the Dees.
      Thinking of going Hibberd to Hurley and will still have the cash for Bonner to Yeo next week.

      So after the Teams are announced

      T – U Do it

      T -D Stick fat with the struggling Hibberd

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  1. I think that’s it for Zorko…sorry mate I really do like you but your an absolute wet rag at the moment and time to go!
    TU hold
    TD Coniglio

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    1. I saw the last half of the Nth/Haw match…..I’m not so sure that Mirra will be there next week. I’d have a back-up plan ready……

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        1. T Duman scored 85 in his first game for Freo.

          He came in for Johnson (rested)this week.

          With Taberner out they may swing Johnson forward and Duman could hold his spot.

          Keep an eye on team sheets next week.

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      1. Jumped early. If nothing else it’s a loophole at 102k. Needed to go a cheap defender to swing Finlayson to miss and not be forced to play Garlett. Silver linings.

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  2. My original plan was Bonner to Mirra and then Holman / Doedee to dusty.

    HOWEVER both Holman and Doedee have confirmed to me that they are better than my premos and deserve to stay for a lot longer.

    So my new plan is:
    – Still Bonner to Mirra
    and
    – Garlett up to a forward premium to complete my forward line meaning i don’t have to field a rookie (henry or fritz). Thinking Gray if i can afford it or Buddy who will be cheap.

    Goldy gets another week since he plays Port Adelaide who don’t have a ruck (unless preuss is named then his gone)

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  3. Most likely will see Garlett and Zorko get out of my side and Im thinking Mirra and either
    TU: Macrae
    TD: Yeo with his incredibly low be

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    1. Yeo will be at his cheapest price for the year this week as he has a score of 27 coming out of his 3 round average next round. Currently priced @ average of 92 with an average score of 101 with 4 tons out of the 5 rounds.

      The Bulldogs have three 3 soft games in row to get their act together all in Victoria against Carlton, Suns and Brisbane. Macrae has a score of 131 coming out of his 3 round average so there is a good chance that he will be $20,000 -$40,000 cheaper in round 8 should he have games around 100-110 marks in the next two rounds.

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    2. I have a feeling guelfi will be the one to grab if possible as zac langdon will be back on the bubble. I am not sure Mirra will get many more games.

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        1. Plus a 90 and an 82.

          Personally, I picked him in the hope that would play 22 games and average at least low-90s, with anything higher being a bonus. Thus far, I see no evidence that he won’t do that.

          If you’ve got the cash and nothing better to spend it on, then by all means, dump him for Grundy and pocket the extra points, but for me, that’s way down the list of priorities at the moment.

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    1. Is it just me or does Sauce look even slower than normal out there? No lift in his jump and appears to be running in concrete boots.

      I had him and made the call to move him before this round, yes he’s durable but looks like he’ll average 85-95 at best.

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      1. He hasn’t really left the ground in a few years. He goes alright around the ground and at boundary throw ins with his body work but more athletic types like Nic Nat and Ryder jump all over him. He will have a couple of big games still but I wouldn’t expect much more than a 90 average, meaning plenty of sub 80 scores.

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  4. your thoughts are appreciated –
    tu – cole (wce) if not named (or barry) to guelfi, and garlett/fritsch to mclean
    td – bonner to simpson

    have 292k in the bank.
    playing 2 forward rookies and want to get it down to one. thinking of holding bonner till byes. getting rid of unreliable fwd rookies
    current forward premos – heeney, walters, smith, billings.
    def – laird, sicily, bonner, doedee, murray, naughton, cole, mirra

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    1. Bonner has to go as his scoring is shrinking and Port’s season is on the line over the next 3 weeks with away games at Docklands, Perth and the derby against the Crows. Every chance that he will be dropped should Port struggled during this period plus Port have the round 10 bye. Take your $60,000 profit and run. The rookie defenders are outscoring him these past couple of rounds and the $320,000 is too high in price to carry for someone who is on the field and not producing results. He is highly unlikely to generate any cash unless he can hit the 80’s regularly.

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    1. Depends what your outside options are.
      Cant change what his price has already done.

      If you think he will continue current performance then it is definitely worth moving him on.
      But will he bounce back?

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    2. I’d hold. He will surely bounce back, maybe properly after the byes. Use him a bench loophole. Won’t be tagged every week and will post some huge scores at some stage.

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  5. I reckon Billings has turned the corner..great second half. Was fun watching him get abused on FF then everyone go quiet.
    Gonna be about 425k this week….yummy !!

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    1. b/e will be around 110, so could probably wait a week to make sure. Not sure he will kick at goals too much better at Aurora next week anyways!

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      1. The forward upgrades can wait a week or two unless you want Sicily/Gray/Menegola/Heeney now. There should be plenty of price falls over the next couple of rounds to some premiums who had poor scores this round.
        Even Deledio is worth some thought?

        Billings’ breakeven will be around 99 so he will be within the price range the following week if you are prepared to wait and see.

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  6. If Zerrett tons up against Collingwood this week then i’ll be all over him like a cheap suit at his nicely discounted price!

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  7. Garlett to Zerrett
    Venables to Guelfi

    Based on both Zerrett & Guelfi both having great games on Wednesday!

    T/U: Yes
    T/D: No

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  8. I’ve got a few options:

    TU 1) bonner to yeo and Zorko to zerret

    TD 2) bonner to zerret via Finlayson DPP and Zorko to a mid around the 530k mark

    cheers

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    1. Given we are still mid round they haven’t been updated. If you really want to know, you can calculate estimated BE’s for players who have played.

      With the score and current BE, you can work out their predicted price given 1 point is roughly equal to $450 (Lets take Zorko for an example). Scored 37 (BE 137) so he will drop 100 * $450 = $45,000 to be priced $484,700

      To work out the new BE, divide the new price by $1,700 and subtract his two latest scores.

      I.e. $484,700 / $1,700 = 285
      285 – 82 – 37 = 166

      So, Zorko should be priced approx $485k with a BE of 166 after lockout. Give/take a thousand and a point or two.

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      1. Legend, thanks mate. Wasn’t sure if websites/Supercoach Gold update it in a rolling lockout but with the short week trying to do my research early!

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      2. The method here is not quite right, so for the community’s benefit i’ll leave the actual pricing system here.

        Prices are calculated by the relationship between a player’s 3 round rolling average and a player’s expected 3RRA (determined by their current price). Zorko’s 3 RRA will be (92 + 82 + 37)/3 = 70. It’s $5500/pt so 70 equates to $386000. The actual price drop will be 25% of the difference between the player’s current price and the 3RRA price, so (529.7k – 386k) x 0.25 = a 36k drop and a new price of 494k.

        You can also calculate his next rounds BE. 494000/5500 = a 90 pt average, which means to breakeven Zorko must get 270 pts in the last 3 weeks. With his 2 most recent scores being 82 and 37, he’d need 151 to breakeven next round.

        Hope that helps 🙂

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  9. Venables to Guelfi

    My likely only trade this week. Need to get Garlett out to. Will sus out if any options out there.

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  10. I ditched zorko and Kelly this week and brought hogan and mirra in via dpp’s.

    Meant I got to use Murray and Hogan instead of Henry and Garlett.

    Good thing too or my score would be cataclysmic this week.

    Leaves me 585k in the bank. Probable trade outs over the next few weeks are looking like Garlett, Barry, Waterman.

    Danger should still be falling, given he was a 200 breakeven.

    Dusty will probably get tagged by Vince and go sub 100 too. If so, I’ll hold off, as that’s 2 sub 100’s and he should go below 600k the following week – if he pumps out an 80 he will be only around 620k this week. If he goes big he probably comes in.

    If Zerrett pops out a ton, is he really a must have at 480k?

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    1. If Vince tags anyone, it’ll be Cotchin. The thought of Bernie trying to stop Dusty one-on-one in the forward 50 would give Goodwin fits. Cotchin is much more susceptible to the tag anyway.

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    2. Zerrett’s score seems to have a correlation to whether he cops a tag which is quite possible with games against the Pies and Dees coming up.

      Also, I know it’s early days but his ceiling does not appear to be as high as last year arguably due to still not being 100% after the round 1 hit- I will be monitoring.

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  11. Trade bonner swing Finlayson to down back, bring Coffield on as a mid, swing Garlett to mid emergency and upgrade a forward that way have 1 forward rookie on the field

    Then piss Zorko off for zerret or someone better with the left over coin from the forward

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  12. Thinking of getting rid of either Fogarty or Garlett for Guelfi, provided that he gets picked next week. Also either Parker or Bont out for Dusty. Thoughts?

    T/U: Bont
    T/D: Parker

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    1. Also thinking of getting Bonner out, any suggestions who for, considering I should have a decent amount of money left over if i wait a week for Dusty and trade out Fog or Garlett.

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  13. Currently thinking of downgrading Garlett and upgrading Bonner to a Def or Fwd (via Sicily) worth up to about $445k. Both of them are looking topped out and it would improve my on field scoring.

    Other than Bonner’s spot, I don’t have any other place on the pitch I want to upgrade at the moment. Hard to imagine that lasting!

    Would prefer a R13 bye, but care about a good player and good value more than that right now.

    Team is below if anyone has any thoughts:

    Def: Laird, Simpson, Bonner, Deodee, Finlayson, Murray
    (Murphy, Naughton)

    Mid: Mitchell, Martin, Macrae, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, T. Kelly, Holman
    (Brayshaw, Banfield, Barry)

    Ruck: Gawn, Nankervis
    (Cox)

    Fwd: Heeney, McLean, Walters, Sicily, Fisher, English
    (Garlett, Fritcsh)

    $28,100 in the bank, 27 trades left.

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      1. Oh darn it, I wrote Fogarty in place of Finlayson. He is in my team playing defense. Not Fogarty. Sorry. And thank you.

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    1. Too early to say for me Father. Am looking at the exact same outs and DPP move, but am gonna wait til Thursday for more meaningful analysis. Bonner should increase to 320.5 and Garlett 214.8 I reckon and neither increasing more than 7 or 8k max. next week based on current averages.

      Personally am hoping ZGL is back, but what to do for the upgrade? don’t know yet.

      ps do you think my numbers are right/close?!?
      cheers for now

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      1. For next week, certainly close. Long term, they will both end up making more than 7-8k, just from fluctuations in their averages, but not at a pace I would be happy with. Cow Talk will have numbers for them both.

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        1. Thanks.

          So what do you think of Lids as a target? When Kelly’s back, is he likely to revert to a 70s average? I watched all of it on Saturday (he was playing the Saints) and he’s moving really well (he was everywhere playing an outside game). Yes he’ll go up $50k+ this week but should have a BE of about -23 next week!!
          If Kelly isn’t back next week, then he will likely go biggish again. So, is it worth using him as a stepping stone to a top8 FWD for a week or two, with the slight chance he could even be a season-long hold?!
          Obviously there is heaps of risk with history but, he will provide much needed on-field points and generate considerable cash in the meantime.
          Would love people’s thoughts.

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    2. Bonner to Guelfi via Sicily gives you around $230k. Then grow the warchest with rookies with a view of going Kelly to Danger. Not having Danger isn’t an issue at the moment but I feel that will change in weeks to come.

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    1. If not named, a must not-have. If named….I’d hope to hear something from Clarkson about what he is thinking. He is cheap, and wouldn’t be the end of the world as a loophole.

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  14. This is my team what trades do you guys recommend i do for next week

    DEF: Laird, Simpson, Ryan, Bonner, Finlayson, Doedee (Murray, Naughton)
    MID: Mitchell, Martin, Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Whitfield, Kelly, Holman (Banfield, Coffield, Barry)
    RUC: Martin, Gawn (Olango)
    FWD: Heeney, Walters, Petracca, Sicily, Fritsch, Garlett (Venables, Henry)

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        1. If Mirra stays in, trade him in for Bonner, put Murray on field, and trade Garlett to Gray

          If Mirra is dropped, then bring Yeo in to backs for Bonner and Guelfi in for Garlett.

          Your other possible pathway is Bonner out, Coffield back, Murray on field. That lets you get Zerrett at his discount, and Guelfi for Garlett for cash purposes.

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          1. Ok Thank You for your advice it is much appreciated but instead of downgrading or upgrading Garlett do i downgrade or upgrade Venables instead

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  15. please comment any trade thoughts (have 296k) in the bank
    def – laird, sicily, bonner, doedee, murray, naughton (cole, mirra)

    mid – danger, dusty, titch, oliver, fyfe, coniglio, kelly, finlayson (holman, banfield, barry)

    ruck – gawn, martin (olango)

    fwd – heeney, walters, smith, billings, fritsch, garlett (henry, ZGL)

    my trade thoughts are:
    tu – bonner out. swing finlay down back, garlett into mids. get in robbie gray. fritsch to guelfi?
    td – bonner to simpson. as well as possibly garlett/fritsch down to guelfi?

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  16. im doing fristch to guelfi and for my second trade:
    tu – bonner to simpson (have to play naughton/cole over holman). maybe both if sicily is suspended.
    td – garlett to mclean/gray (would be worried about gray tag by jacobs)

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  17. Hi guys
    I have Fyfe as VC, do I take his capt score by loopholing fritsch? Unfortunately it means getting Garlett putrid 21pts and losing petracca’s score and hoping dusty goes big . What does everyone think and what would you do?

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  18. I thinking it will go something like this:
    Option 1:Fyfe’s 151& dusty 134 x2 ( this is his current season ave) & petracca approx 80 = 499. Vs
    Option 2: Fyfe 151×2 dusty 134 and Garlett 21 = 457.

    If I went option 1 and assuming petracca gets about 80 , dusty would have to get only 113 if I went with option 1. Very very achievable, dusty should get easily. So based on these assumptions, option 1 is best for my score

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  19. Is it worth going Fritsch > Guelfi before tomorrow night so i can do double upgrade after this weeks game of bonner and garlett into premiums.

    T/U Do the trade now so can double upgrade bonner and garlett after anzac day

    T/D Don’t trade in Guelfi yet, meaning only can do one upgrade next week

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  20. Who do you guys will play the most games this season out of Garlett, Fritsch or Fogarty. Thinking of getting rid of one of them for Guelfi.

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  21. Please comment trade thoughts for the future, considering ive got 139k in the bank.

    Def: Laird, Rance, Ryan (Fre), Doedee, Finlayson, Murray (Bonner, Mirra)

    Mid: Mitchell, Fyfe, Bontempelli, Cripps, Parker (Syd), Coniglio, O’Meara, Holman (Brayshaw, Banfield, Barry)

    Ruc: Gawn, Naitanui (Amartey)

    Fwd: Heeney, Gray, Greene, Fritsch, Garlett, Crowden (Ryan, Fogarty (Ade))

    I can live with my mids, rucks and backs (apart from Bonner) for now. Feel i need some big changes to forward line.

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    1. Ive got a feeling Guelfi has better JS.
      Thinking about pulling the trigger on this trade myself..

      Would love advice from someone better in-the-know

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      1. I reckon get Guelfi cos of job security as caddy and Graham will come back so higgins might go back to the vfl when they come back but both have got high ceiling with their respective scores. I feel Guelfi cos he’s cheaper and has had plenty of senior experience down at WA and looks really good. If u trade this week, it would free up some cash to help u upgrade to a premo after this round!

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  22. What do i do:

    Currently have franklin and zorko and only 40 k in the bank but haven’t used a trade this week.

    Do i use one trade now to downgrade a rookie to higgins/guelfi to generate more cash for trades next week considering im looking to move on bonner (this will also allow me to dump zorko instead of double downgrading)

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  23. Thinking B Fritsch to Guelfi today ( I Know ).So I can go Christensen to Gray and A Brayshaw to Yeo via Finlayson dpp.Will have 100k left and 25 trades left . I know Brayshaw and Fritsch May have some growth but yeo and Gray won’t get much cheaper . Cheers
    T/U
    T/D

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    1. If I had enough cash in the bank for Kent I’d do it, but NOT Guelfi today. I’m gonna hold. May be as much a tactical move as being dropped, with another game for the Dees in just five days. Those young legs will need a rest at some point. Now’s as good a time as any.

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      1. hope you didn’t listen to another awesome piece of advice from the d!ckhead allsaints 😉
        I did it in my TECH team side. Ouch!

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  24. Am going to straight swap Heeney IN for Franklin when this torturous round finally comes to an end, given Sicily is certain to be back in a week and Franklin’s injury sounds a little more complicated than just a bruised heel. Even if he is back sooner rather than later foot issues are a NO NO for me, especially in DEF and FWD lines. The evidence for that is in his last three weeks’ SC pts.
    It WILL mean holding either Bonner or Brayshaw for one more week though. If Brayshaw is named for the derby I was probably going to keep him anyway (should only have a BE of around 26 this week, whilst Bonner will be 63/64).
    So,
    TU Franklin and Bonner OUT, Sicily DPP to back and benched, Heeney and Langdon (if named, otherwise Higgins/Guelfi) IN
    TD Too many ifs and buts ya eejit

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    1. allsaints.

      I like the DPP move of Sicily back. The defensive rookies seem much more trustworthy on field.

      Just in case Sicily goes Flog Mode again!

      I too am weighing up the Buddy to Heeney swap. But I seem to burning a few too many trades early this year so I may have to hold for now. I do have English as cover.

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      1. Thanks mate. Wish I had English.
        In the long-term I’m thinking Sicily will actually end up in my FWD line given there are only two real standouts, four at a push. Gonna need Heeney eventually so why not now is my thinking.

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        1. English ended up in my team when Ryder went down early Round one.

          The down side is so did Mason Cox. 🙁

          Ryder and Cox became Mclean and Nic Nat but I’m burning through the trades.

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  25. Have 3 rookies in midefield and 2 in fwd line
    TU: uprgrade a fwd rookie this week
    TD: upgrade a mid rookie this week

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    1. I’d always go MID first given they have both higher comparative averages and are more consistent. Must be a top 6 til season end tho if you have three rookies on the field. Start at the top (pts) and work down is my philosophy.
      If you can’t afford it, don’t compromise.

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  26. Kane Lambert M/F may be another option for a Buddy trade.

    Seems to have found some form with 2 tons in a row.

    He should be about $440K this week.

    Also frees up nearly 100K for upgrades elsewhere.

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      1. He he. Fair enough.

        I’m staring to think Buddy to Higgins.

        Then Parker to Danger. + $ for another upgrade.

        I’m not sure Danger (Approx $680K) will be cheaper all year.

        I will have to play 2 rookies on field in the forwards for a week at least.

        My Mids would then be..

        Danger, Titch, Dusty, Fyfe, Cripps, Cogs,T.Kelly, Holman.

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  27. I’m starting to think Hibberd (smashed nose), Higgins ( Caddy back)and maybe Guelfi may all not back up after there mid week games.

    With Buddy out and Sicily missing.

    The forward line is looking thin.

    R6 starts smelling very much like Krispy Cream time.

    Lets hope Frisch was just rested.

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