Value Picks – FWDs – SuperCoachTalk

Hey all

Here’s a comprehensive list of the FWD eligible players ranked by their Marsh Series’ performances (based on $/PPM)

Now here’s a list of the 15 most popular mid-priced FWDs, in terms of SC ownership (as of 5.30am, 18/03/2019). The screen grab from the SuperCoach website shows player, price and % ownership. PTA stands for ‘Priced to Average’. NTA stands for ‘Needs to Average’. This is what they will need to average to make $150k, or if that req’d average works out to be greater than 95 to make $150k, I have simply reduced their req’d average to 95, since this will necessarily put them in ‘Keeper’ territory. The final column % Req’d indicates the % differential between what is required for them to be valuable vs what they are priced to average.

There are quite a few players that people are interested in, so let’s have a closer look at the top 10 first up.

1. Devon SMITH ave’d over 95 just two years ago and performed well in the MS (Marsh Series). I am confident that he can average 95 or close to it, at least until Heppell returns to full fitness and playing at full capacity. VERDICT: safe to start him, but if the season is delayed and Heppell is back, I won’t be. Will personally take a more expensive risk and will make a corrective trade to him if he looks the goods.

2. Jack STEVEN is only going to get better with matches. If he can stay mentally strong, then I envisage him only increasing his MID minutes as the only Cat anywhere near capable of filling the huge Tim Kelly hole. VERDICT: if he’s mentally OK, he is one of the better FWD picks.

3. Aiden BONAR doesn’t look good enough to me when the Roos reach full strength and has already sent us a soft-tissue warning. VERDICT: There are better picks out there.

4. Andrew BRAYSHAW is bigger, fitter and guaranteed more MID time in 2020. He hasn’t missed a game apart from when he had his teeth knocked out so is also incredibly durable. A gun who will be given the opportunity to grow in a rebuilding FRE side. Needs a considerable rise in output, but increased TOG and more consistent MID time suggest he is more than capable. If game time is reduced, I’m even more convinced. Verdict: a Yes from me.

5. Christian PETRACCA. All the signs are there and big Max has stated that he WILL be starting in the midfield. That should be enough for everyone to start him given his his key indicators, full pre-season and the ceiling he showed in MS1. VERDICT: should be a lock, but not for me.

6. Darcy MACPHERSON showed signs last year when given the opportunity both inside and outside. Stand-in skipper Swallow identified Darcy as THE breakout contender in 2020 at the Suns. VERDICT: not for the faint-hearted, but was almost top 6 last year and can only improve. Yes from me.

7. Hugh GREENWOOD seems to be getting a lot less love than earlier in the pre-season, but is likely still a good pick. Can’t see him going backwards, but think there may be others who will either do better, or make more money. VERDICT: safe to start with very little to lose.

8. Tom J LYNCH. Well, I’ve banged on about him for months. Is severely underpriced and showed in the back half of last year and Finals that he is more than capable of a 90+ average. He’s been in and out of my side, but is currently IN, with a shorter season now planned and RIC likely to go hard from the start. VERDICT: a gamble that could be the biggest return of the lot. Or the worst!

9. Jack LUKOSIUS is likely another safe pick, but am not sure he can average what we need him to (nearly 85). VERDICT: Does look great, but just think there are better options. Will likely leave owners in no-mans-land.

10. Jonathan PATTON has injury history like no other. Shorter season may help, but I think CEGLAR from the Hawks is a safer and stronger pick. VERDICT: not for me, due to injury history and better options at the same club.

____________________________________

Now let’s have a look at some others who either SCTers have specifically asked for, or who I reckon are decent sleepers.

Jacob TOWNSEND came with Carracella from the Tigers and is key to ESS’s new FWD structure. Will likely play every game and will score as he has in the past. VERDICT: I have him locked in at F6.

Lachlan SCHULTZ needs a mention after a decent MS and having been in the system a year longer than the rookies priced around him. FRE’s new game style is conducive to decent SC-scoring and he could be a key benefactor. VERDICT: Fantasy Freako likes him, but I prefer Townsend.

Jonathan CEGLAR was mentioned above, but has surprisingly low ownership. The risk is that he doesn’t get 75%+ RUC time, but if he does, could be the Rowan Marshall (not to that extent) of 2020. VERDICT: classic risk/reward pick. If you’re going Naismith or another risky R2, then he is a MUST as potential cover with a RUC/FWD dpp loophole at R3.

Darcy TUCKER is one of those who has been taken under Nat FYFE’s wing. With ACRES out for a while, he could have been an excellent pick, but with an extended delay almost certain very soon, then it is ACRES himself who will come back into calculations! VERDICT: One Docker is enough!

Zac LANGDON from GWS is another who looks to have improved massively during the MS and is keen as mustard to make one of the sml FWD spots his at the Giants. On current form you’d think it is his to lose, and he is massively underpriced after an injury-effected 2019 (incl. an injury-effected score in his discounted price). VERDICT: could possibly be THE best cheap FWD pick. May still take him in place of Townsend

Have I missed anyone?! I can always add them if I have. Apologies for the format, but at least you have the numbers above and now it is open for discussion.

Let’s just wait and see what happens! Here is my current FWD line, should the season kick-off tomorrow! 😉