Cow Talk R7->8

Written by Father Dougal on May 4 2022

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows


Hi Everybody!

A lot of bargains and near bargains this week. If you don’t own Short he is such a good looking trade in. But, if you own him and still have a lot of defensive rookies playing, would it be better to get a reasonably priced premium that gets a rookie off the field rather than a cheap player on another line?

Sounds like a question that can be answered with the aid of mathematics! 

Yes it does!

So, say you want Luke Parker up front. Right now he is priced, conservatively, 20 points under what he should average.  That means 15 rounds of 20 point savings. which is 300 points.

But, he will be more like 15 under next week, so that means he’ll be more like 75 points saved. 

Let’s keep both those in mind.  Also someone else will come along. Also, what if he is replacing Martin who is averaging 90? Then he’s more like 15 round of 15 points savings for  225. So it is not for sure clear, but we have some ideas. (If Parker is replacing someone scoring badly, then this is not so much an issue.)

Now, say you have NOD or De Koning playing. Say they average 60 for, um, a while. If you can replace one with say Docherty or Sinclair, who are looking like they will average 110 or more, that is a difference of 50 points a round.

If you were only looking at one upgrade in isolation that’s 50 points a week to catch up on the missed value, which would be at most 6 weeks, and maybe just 2 weeks.

Are you sure you are thinking about this correctly?


Ok, Parker in for Martin on field will be about 15 points a week. Getting Parker a week early means about $25k savings which is about 6 points a week value that can be used somewhere else. So that is 21 points a week for 15 weeks which is 315 points.  So, a 50 point difference would take over 6 weeks to make that up.

Won’t we make moves before 6 weeks! 

Yes, so if we make another trade up in two weeks we have only save 100 points. Now we did save it right away and into the books. So…good. But still that doesn’t seem to work well. If you do one down and one up next week, then it is just 50 points savings.

And  a lot of the good defenders have high breakevens so you would be getting them cheaper. 

 So the best move would be get Parker even if it pushed Martin to the bench, and then get a premo defender next week after a price fall. 

Well…the numbers seem to say that. I mean you get probably $25k to spend next week and have to spend less on who you bring in. You are down 35 points probably, but then you get a defender next week and all you have to do is make up 35 points of value with that spare $25k and  however much you save on say Sinclair or Doc, call it $5k…..

That’s not the result you expected is it? 

Nope. I don’t set out to prove stuff just to figure it out. And it looks like getting Parker now cheap, even if it means pushing up the 90 averaging Martin is a good long term play over getting a defender cow of the field.

Plus, Parker for one week, he could go for more than 105 v the Suns. 

Yes, good point. Ok, well, There you go. Exactly how the number work will vary by team, and a lot of teams can just bring in Short in defense if needed.

Might be boost time

Might be!






Noah Answerth: Back to almost his starting price.  Off to Moo-ron Mountain!


Jake Bowey: Has the 106 in his average for another round. Can see after that.

Heath Chapman: Did not play

Sam De Koning: Burning a bit faster. Looks like hold for at least a few more.

Josh Gibcus:  One more round of growth. Might well be ready to go after that, or could ton up again and be kept for longer. We will know next week.

Mitchell Hinge: Did not play

Patrick McCartin: Did not play

Nathan O’Driscoll:  That 42 is in his system for one more week, then he may go back up some. Could certainly go this week as another 50ish will cost cash and no idea if he will ton up again. Or hold and hope.



Jarrod Berry: That 48 sure hurts. may be the most likely to be traded out after that.

Jye Caldwell: His scores are slowly creeping down. I’d be awfully tempted to trade him now. Lots of people to go up to….

Nick Daicos: still ambling along and could ton up and make a lot more. And has the last bye.

Thomson Dow: Did not play

Jason Horne-Francis:  Last round with the 39 in his average. Likely to go back up and has the R14 bye.

Brady Hough: Did not play

Dylan Stephens: Did not play

Josh Ward:  Did not play



Hugh Dixon:   Did end up playing. With so many outs he will probably solo ruck, which makes him hard to trade out this week. 

Tristan Xerri: Did not play



Will Brodie:  Well, maybe not a keeper but still maybe. I do not think I would panic from one bad score.

Charlie Curnow: Might be ready to cull at the beginning of R9, but could put up another ton and extend that.

Jade Gresham: Cheap Gun. Also may need to go as a Gun and non-cow. Kudos to those who started with him.

Connor MacDonald:  Sigh.

Finn Maginness:  Sigh

Nicholas Martin:  Lots more cash to make after another ton. So hard to trade out until forced.


Patrick Naish: Seems to be going ok.  Not much more to say. Still.

Josh Rachele: Three bad scores in a row is not good. Could do a fourth, could ton up.  Nothing wrong with getting him out this week. He is playing.

Hugo Ralphsmith: Did not play


Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.


Dodgy Advice: 

We may well have too many downgrade options next round. Might be a good idea to bring in one a round early.


Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep so replies may take a while.

Thanks for reading!


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11 thoughts on “Cow Talk R7->8”

  1. Which is the better option here.. 2 trades to do

    OUT O ‘Driscoll , Rachele plus 121k
    IN Touk, McComb

    OR use three trades

    OUT Butters, Rachele, Whitfield
    IN Touk, Parker and Clark

    The first option (2 trades) allows me to keep Whitfield and butters and I am gaining a premo in Touk

    The second option (3 trades) allows me to get in 2 premium players at the expense of Whitfield and butters but I lose butters in the process( so probably only gaining a nett 1 premium player

    Which is the better option


  2. Can someone help me out with the first interlocution in italics? If it’s 20 points x 15 rounds = 300 points saved this week, how is it only a 75 point savings next week? 15 points x 14 rounds = 210 points, no?


    1. Sorry! The comparison was what you would save v getting him later, which would be the difference in savings. So if you save 300 from 20 under and 225 from 15 under than that’s 75 difference. Depends on how you look at it if that should be 14 or 15 weeks, but the difference is just 15 points so either way you total doesn’t change much.


      1. Thanks for “showing your work”. Some interesting decisions over the next couple weeks.


  3. Thanks for that. Great info.

    I know a farmer with some two metre plus tall cows getting fat in their ruck-paddock, Sam Hayes and Braydon Preuss.

    Any chance of them in future episodes ?


    1. Yes, although one could argue Preuss is a keeper not a cow. But they will be in next week.


  4. Round 14 bye for O’Driscoll, JHF and Daicos means that I will be holding them for now. As tempting as it is to trade them, I think we’ll all appreciate the consistent scoring through the first two bye rounds.


  5. Who to have the better score (if named):
    TU McComb
    TD Clark
    Comment TU/TD M. Rioli/J. Carrol



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