Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
I want to talk a bit about upgrade season.
Firstly it is called upgrade season because it is when we make upgrades!
Yes, and while that is sort of obvious, upgrades are not as obvious all the time. For one thing, upgrades have two parts, the out and the in. Both matter. If someone is on the field, and they are a spud, then upgrading them is a clear good thing. Bring in a 90 for a 40. Or a 120 for a 40. But, if you just focus on the in, you could end up bringing in a 90 for a 75. It is very unlikely that is the best available move right now.
Is this the whole “get the rookies of the field” thing?
Sort of. As I was just saying, it matters which rookies. There is no rush to get Powell and Jordon off the field, but there is a rush to get Berry off the field. Again, the out matters as much as the in.
Also, for the outs, before you trade them out, do a rethink on if they really should go out. This is extra true for players that started as Cow-like-objects. For example, say at the start of the season you got Jack Ziebell expecting him to make cash and be moved on to a premium. Guess what, he has made lots of cash! So, You could sell him for $599,200, which is a $341,300 profit. Then you use that cash to bring in a premium like Dusty or Heeney, or maybe Zorko. That leaves you with cash left over and fewer points a round.
Isn’t cash left over and fewer points/round a downgrade?
Well….yes…..but Jack is some random never been that good bloke, while Zorko the Magician has a cool nickname and been good a long time. And Dusty was great back in 2017, and is the best player in football right?
Sorry, not gonna go there! I meant, correct, that was not right. Whatever the Z-man was in the past, he is a keeper this season. Trading him to Zorko, or god forbid Dusty, because they are “traditional” premiums, makes no sense. Same with Impey. Might be true for Jiath and Daniher. Those guys, and others, are on the line of keeper/premium, because this year is weird. If they are not keepers, they may be the last outs. Anyone scoring at 80+ should stay while the 40-60 types go.
Last outs being the guys who are doing pretty well and you can hold longer than some spud scoring 50s because they are doing close to what you want from a F6/D6/M8 anyway?
As I have said before, people think in stories. If you think you are in a Superbad, the teen sex comedy, but are really in SuperBAD the XIII, return of the Spaghetti Spoon killer, well, things may not go so well for you. Same as if you were to confuse keepers and long hold types for cows, and get rid of them too soon.
Spaghetti Spoon killer….? Never mind, I’m not going to ask, you might answer.
Lachie Young: Likely to lose a little more this round. Not sure if there is a reason for his mini-slump. Could bounce right back, who knows? Certainly a trade out candidate. Maybe he’s tired?
Jordan Butts: Still growing from his 88. Hold another week and see how he is then.
Nikolas Cox: A 43, yikes. Is he tired? Certainly has not scored well for a while.
Jack Buckley: Grr, a 42, not sweet. BE the same as his average. Of course they play the Tigers next. Does that mean more work in back or less points from the Tigers?
Jacob Koschitzke: An easy swap to s keeper this round. If I remember correctly he tonned up in Tassie before, and he is playing the Roos there this week, so if you have to hold, far from bad.
Jordan Clark: Did not play
Changkuoth Jiath: Ok, so the 49 was a bad game, but maybe not really cow territory. He does have a 92 average If you think he is a cow I’d hold to his bye. Really beginning to think he’s a longer-ish term hold, or a luxury upgrade later on.
Errol Gulden: The problem with the projection for him is that the early part of the season is making him look more likely to make money than I think he is now. Again, is he tired? The Swans have good matches coming up. He BE is only 63, so not a horrible thing to hold him. I wish I knew why he fell off so much after R2. I could swear cows have their best matches early and fade a lot. Need to check that out someday.
Sam Berry: Have some trouble scoring, and he plays the Eagles, Demon, and Tigers next three. Yikes. I thinking I may hold him because he seems to have a job and I am short warm bodies for the Byes. Not a lot of cash there. Still, he does not look like making any more.
James Jordan: Scoring well and really a hold ’till bye type.
Tom Powell: Scoring well and really a hold ’till bye type.
Lachie McNeil: That rest paid off. Rule of Three, so two rounds of growth very likely.
Robertson: Blech, a 44. Still went up. Still playing in the middle. I’d be reluctant to get rid from one bad game, unless you can make good use of the cash right away.
Warner: Again – Worst case he hovers around where he is, and likely he goes higher at some point. Has a job up forward, so great.
Scott: Oh, an 85. It’s like a ton almost, just 15 points lower. Again like McNeil, should grow for two more rounds. He has been pretty solid the last 4 rounds and not bad to have playing on field in the forwards.
Rowe: Well, yet another “big” score to bring in cash on the mostly low scoring guy. That 81 means some cash, although maybe not since he has to play at Optus next round. But, he BE is just 23, so holding a round is low risk.
Bergman: One more big grow, and he does seem decently reliable as a forward cow.
Farar: Looks like slow grow until he scores big. Like most cows.
Impey: I think he’s a horse now too.
Atkins: Feels like a hold until byes. Doing well enough points wise on average. Probably topped out.
Fantasia: Well, he is averaging more that he cost at the start of the year. Very close to exile to Moo-ron mountain.
Daniher: I’m having a hard time seeing him as a horse, but that’s my own issue. His first four games were blah, but his last four have been solid. If I owned him I’d be way tempted to hold him. For sure for another round, and if he spuds up there not a huge risk with his 43 BE.
Stringer: Jake injuried? That’s un-possible! Out for a while after a 22. You knew he was Jake Stringer when you took him.
Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.
Dodgy Advice: You know who is on the Bubble this week? James Harmes. An SC, defender, playing in the mids. Could go 90 again! He would take a spot you might want for someone better, but on the other hand, he might fill a hole well enough, cheap enough and let you use cash elsewhere.
Really, that is the best you have? We need forwards!
Um, Jeremy Cameron. Will drive you mad, but if you can handle the ups and downs, his cos/point is low. Oh god, now I’m thinking about him….
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.
Thanks for reading!
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