Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

So, byes almost here. They can make a big difference in a season, either pulling ahead or dropping behind. Many of us have been through them before, but not everyone, so I’m gonna talk some about how to get though them.

Er, aren’t you, in fact, not very good at getting thought them?

Oh oh! I know the answer to that one!

Which is?

No!

I have gotten better…I hope….

There was that one time where he did so badly that he had to let me write Cow Talk the next week while he tried to recover.

And the week after that was so bad that you couldn’t handle it and I had to take over! That was fun. 

For you….

And I stayed on after!

A clear sign that he escaped with no long term damage to his mental health from those three rounds….

Yes, I am completely fine and everything is under control.

So everyone should give, um, appropriate weight to your thoughts.

Right!

Right. Sigh.

Anyways, this year things are easier because we have two bye rounds with few than six teams out. Round 12 with four and Round 3 with two. But scoring for all the bye rounds is best 18 on field, so getting 18 on field is a lot easier for those rounds.

Best 18 but they have to be on field?

After emergencies, yes.  If, for example, you have 7 defenders who play then only six of them get scored, like any other week.

So try not to get anyone stuck on the bench!

Right!

How do we plan for the byes?

A few weeks ago…

Well, yeah, but, you still can. The big thing it so figure out who many players will be playing each week. If 18 or more, good, if 17 or less good. But we have time to fix that.

Assuming you should

Yeah, sometime it will not be worth a trade to get another player in. But, lets talk about how to try and fix things.

First check out round 15. If you are short of 18, you can plan to trade out Cow with a R15 bye for someone who will play. Oscar Baker, for example, will play in the other byes, and can then go out before R15. If that still does get you to 18, then make a note of how many you are short.

Then check Round 14. If you are short of 18, you can plan to trade out Cow with a R15 bye for someone who will play. Mitchell, for example. You can trade him to anyone who does not have a round 14 or round 15 bye.

For Round 13, if you can’t field 18, well, um, I’m not gonna think about that, but I will pray for you.  You can have lots of R13 players, and should have as many as are worth having.  Which will still let you field 18.

Found Round 12, if you are short of 18, you can plan to trade out Cows for players with the round 13 bye if you can. If you have enough for R14 or R15, you can bring someone if from them, but I would be careful about bringing in someone who does not play in a round you are already having a problem with.

Once a player’s bye has passed you can bring them in for sure knowing they will play the rest of the byes. In practice you get an extra week out of them.

So, well, the idea is to know who not to bring in, and to bring in players once they are past their bye. The tricky part is what to do with players who have a later bye but you can use to upgrade before then. No one answer to that, you have to figure out what gets more points total. If you use Baker to upgrade and get 150 points from that, and you don’t use him to get in a R15 player and score 0 for that 18th spot, well, that 150 might be more that whoever would have come in for him to make 18.

 

To help, here are the updated charts I talked about last week.

Weeks left	Cash	Points	Make up 100
13	$100,000	107.7	7.7
12	$108,333	116.7	8.3
11	$118,182	127.3	9.1
10	$130,000	140.0	10.0
9	$144,444	155.6	11.1
8	$162,500	175.0	12.5
7	$185,714	200.0	14.3
6	$216,667	233.3	16.7
5	$260,000	280.0	20.0
4	$325,000	350.0	25.0
3	$433,333	466.7	33.3
2	$650,000	700.0	50.0
1	$1,300,000	1400.0	100.0

Weeks left	Cash	Points
13	$100,000	100.0
12	$92,308	92.3
11	$84,615	84.6
10	$76,923	76.9
9	$69,231	69.2
8	$61,538	61.5
7	$53,846	53.8
6	$46,154	46.2
5	$38,462	38.5
4	$30,769	30.8
3	$23,077	23.1
2	$15,385	15.4
1	$7,692	7.7

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: Still looking like a keeper. At the very worst keep to R15.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,300
1	114	198,300
2	114	198,300
3	120	198,300
4	111	304,500
5	100	381,800
6	53	431,600
7	107	438,800
8	110	443,200
9	68	452,000
10	112	464,600
11	100.9	475,400
12	100.9	479,765	4,365	4,365
13	100.9	497,920	18,154	22,520
14	100.9	506,343	8,424	30,943
15
16	100.9	512,587	6,244	37,187
17	100.9	517,216	4,628	41,816

Ginbey:   That 35 will slow his cash, but not stop it because of the 108 in his three round average.  The problem is his bye is a round after his probable top price. On the other hand, odds are he won’t be needed to avoid a donut in the happy R13 bye.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		171,300
1	85	171,300
2	76	171,300
3	104	171,300
4	40	246,900
5	51	282,500
6	62	296,800
7	39	288,900
8	61	283,100
9	108	284,000
10	35	305,000
11	66.1	318,200
12	66.1	330,683	12,483	12,483
13	66.1	320,936	-9,747	2,736
14
15	66.1	327,814	6,878	9,614
16	66.1	332,912	5,098	14,712
17	66.1	336,690	3,779	18,490

McKenna:  Since he covers Rounds 13-15 it might be wroth holding and hoping his price goes back up.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1	93	167,500
2	78	167,500
3	57	167,500
4	86	227,300
5	55	268,500
6	57	287,800
7	70	302,600
8	46	306,900
9	35	306,700
10	53	296,000
11	63.0	279,900
12
13	63.0	275,947	-3,953	-3,953
14	63.0	285,714	9,767	5,814
15	63.0	297,488	11,774	17,588
16	63.0	306,216	8,728	26,316
17	63.0	312,685	6,469	32,785

Wilmot: A new season high score mean he might be a hold until after the bye, as he will both provide cover and make money.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	51	123,900
2	68	123,900
3	69	123,900
4	50	176,900
5	68	215,700
6	39	243,900
7	63	251,600
8	50	263,600
9	75	264,900
10	83	281,700
11	61.6	302,800
12
13	61.6	324,029	21,229	21,229
14	61.6	333,689	9,660	30,889
15	61.6	331,145	-2,544	28,345
16	61.6	329,259	-1,886	26,459
17	61.6	327,861	-1,398	25,061

Cowan:  Did not play. 

L Jones: Still looks like time to sell, unless you want to hold for cover and sell R15.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		228,100
1	5	228,100
2	76	228,100
3	68	228,100
4	45	236,300
5	88	260,600
6	53	283,400
7	54	293,900
8	41	306,300
9	66	294,800
10	62	291,700
11	55.8	292,600
12	55.8	300,234	7,634	7,634
13	55.8	301,268	1,034	8,668
14	55.8	299,223	-2,045	6,623
15
16	55.8	297,707	-1,516	5,107
17	55.8	296,583	-1,124	3,983

Michalanney: Given his recent low scores he might lose more than if he goes at his average as in the projections.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		135,300
1	62	135,300
2	48	135,300
3	82	135,300
4	103	187,200
5	60	244,200
6	50	291,100
7	51	311,800
8	64	304,100
9	48	300,900
10	45	297,200
11	61.3	291,200
12	61.3	285,820	-5,380	-5,380
13	61.3	287,863	2,043	-3,337
14
15	61.3	296,768	8,906	5,568
16	61.3	303,370	6,601	12,170
17	61.3	308,263	4,893	17,063

Buckley:  No idea why his scoring dropped. sell now or hold until his bye.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		205,000
1	76	205,000
2	99	205,000
3	99	205,000
4	80	275,900
5	78	330,300
6	87	360,100
7	91	377,400
8	99	395,800
9	44	419,900
10	62	417,600
11	81.5	402,200
12	81.5	383,153	-19,047	-19,047
13	81.5	386,039	2,886	-16,161
14	81.5	397,021	10,982	-5,179
15
16	81.5	405,161	8,140	2,961
17	81.5	411,195	6,034	8,995

Stocker: Seems like a hold until after the byes.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		216,400
1	74	216,400
2	74	216,400
3	70	216,400
4	77	258,900
5	78	291,100
6	58	317,400
7	69	331,300
8	103	338,500
9	73	356,000
10	75	375,200
11	75.1	391,600
12
13	75.1	391,439	-161	-161
14	75.1	392,272	833	672
15	75.1	392,934	663	1,334
16	75.1	393,426	491	1,826
17	75.1	393,790	364	2,190

Mitchell: Really clear hold until his bye while he goes up a lot in value. Knock on wood, no jinks.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1		123,900
2		123,900
3		123,900
4		123,900
5	67	123,900
6	79	123,900
7	41	123,900
8	54	176,600
9	74	210,300
10	82	232,700
11	66.2	267,500
12	66.2	299,027	31,527	31,527
13	66.2	318,844	19,817	51,344
14
15	66.2	326,354	7,510	58,854
16	66.2	331,920	5,566	64,420
17	66.2	336,046	4,126	68,546

Weddle: Like Mitchell but on steroids. (Insert Essendon joke here)

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		130,800
1		130,800
2		130,800
3		130,800
4		130,800
5		130,800
6		130,800
7	38	130,800
8	54	130,800
9	65	130,800
10	114	168,200
11	67.8	230,200
12	67.8	282,526	52,326	52,326
13	67.8	322,559	40,033	92,359
14
15	67.8	331,261	8,702	101,061
16	67.8	337,712	6,451	107,512
17	67.8	342,493	4,781	112,293

Atkins: One of those guys who you want to keep because of he R13 bye.  Seems likely to go up price over that time.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		203,900
1		203,900
2		203,900
3		203,900
4		203,900
5		203,900
6		203,900
7	89	203,900
8	68	203,900
9	62	203,900
10	102	250,600
11	80.3	290,700
12	80.3	326,238	35,538	35,538
13
14	80.3	360,855	34,618	70,155
15	80.3	376,653	15,798	85,953
16	80.3	388,363	11,710	97,663
17	80.3	397,043	8,680	106,343

 

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Hold, just hold.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		202,800
1	55	202,800
2	105	202,800
3	80	202,800
4	75	258,800
5	72	309,400
6	76	331,100
7	103	345,900
8	37	370,200
9	97	373,200
10	124	384,300
11	82.4	401,500
12
13	82.4	435,190	33,690	33,690
14	82.4	453,542	18,352	52,042
15	82.4	448,281	-5,260	46,781
16	82.4	444,382	-3,899	42,882
17	82.4	441,492	-2,890	39,992

Baker: Classic hold until R15, unless you can somehow make more by harvesting him and using the cash.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	43	123,900
2	55	123,900
3	95	123,900
4	47	179,200
5	53	222,000
6	59	252,100
7	69	258,500
8	50	273,700
9	58	284,200
10	61	291,100
11	59.0	292,200
12	59.0	297,308	5,108	5,108
13	59.0	301,548	4,240	9,348
14	59.0	303,783	2,236	11,583
15
16	59.0	305,441	1,657	13,241
17	59.0	306,669	1,228	14,469

Hollands:  …pretty much a K-mart version of Baker.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		162,300
1	56	162,300
2	71	162,300
3	66	162,300
4	52	207,600
5	65	239,300
6	60	259,400
7	60	272,100
8	51	285,600
9	58	289,900
10	37	291,700
11	57.6	282,200
12	57.6	278,378	-3,822	-3,822
13	57.6	275,363	-3,015	-6,837
14	57.6	282,470	7,107	270
15
16	57.6	287,737	5,268	5,537
17	57.6	291,642	3,905	9,442

Callaghan: At this point he looks like a trade out R15, like a high class Baker.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		244,000
1	101	244,000
2	45	244,000
3	37	244,000
4	65	263,600
5	72	261,700
6	77	271,900
7	88	298,800
8	59	328,300
9	85	345,700
10	68	361,600
11	69.7	363,800
12	69.7	370,651	6,851	6,851
13	69.7	368,791	-1,860	4,991
14	69.7	368,183	-608	4,383
15
16	69.7	367,733	-450	3,933
17	69.7	367,399	-334	3,599

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Has the magic bye and is a ruck. Hold.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		174,000
1	55	174,000
2	31	174,000
3	47	174,000
4	88	189,000
5	88	215,100
6	75	259,600
7	43	305,700
8	88	320,000
9	77	331,300
10	75	340,100
11	66.7	360,600
12	66.7	366,465	5,865	5,865
13
14	66.7	366,142	-323	5,542
15	66.7	362,138	-4,003	1,538
16	66.7	359,171	-2,967	-1,429
17	66.7	356,971	-2,200	-3,629

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: If you own him, then probably a hold until his bye, since he does seem to be making money again.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,300
1	93	180,300
2	52	180,300
3	89	180,300
4	49	239,500
5	14	263,400
6	48	263,300
7		245,100
8		245,100
9	61	245,100
10	87	237,600
11	61.6	264,700
12	61.6	264,700
13	61.6	291,548	26,848	26,848
14
15	61.6	299,942	8,394	35,242
16	61.6	306,164	6,222	41,464
17	61.6	310,776	4,612	46,076

Greene:  Did not play.

Phillipou: Well, he plays over the bad byes and isn’t losing cash. Has not made much, maybe he’ll go big just once.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,800
1	76	166,800
2	59	166,800
3	51	166,800
4	61	207,700
5	67	231,200
6	39	251,700
7	20	261,800
8	56	251,200
9	43	238,900
10	63	231,200
11	53.5	244,600
12
13	53.5	253,636	9,036	9,036
14	53.5	265,094	11,459	20,494
15	53.5	269,281	4,186	24,681
16	53.5	272,383	3,103	27,783
17	53.5	274,683	2,300	30,083

Phillips: Did play! If he is not the sub He’ll make cash. Hold until his bye?

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,300
1	65	158,300
2		158,300
3	78	158,300
4	67	158,300
5	74	212,400
6	36	255,900
7		269,400
8		269,400
9		269,400
10	70	269,400
11	65.0	281,000
12	65.0	285,832	4,832	4,832
13	65.0	302,564	16,732	21,564
14	65.0	312,699	10,135	31,699
15
16	65.0	320,211	7,513	39,211
17	65.0	325,780	5,569	44,780

Chandler: Went big but not big enough to make his BE. Could make or ose from here. Hold to his bye? Yes, I say that a lot, because a lot of times it is a good plan, in general, for a lot of cows. Your cows may vary.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	93	123,900
2	71	123,900
3	90	123,900
4	59	206,800
5	56	252,800
6	85	279,400
7	104	297,200
8	57	331,400
9	42	358,000
10	86	357,600
11	74.3	348,600
12	74.3	350,133	1,533	1,533
13	74.3	365,917	15,783	17,317
14
15	74.3	372,310	6,394	23,710
16	74.3	377,050	4,739	28,450
17	74.3	380,563	3,513	31,963

Davey:  Well, 40 is more than zero. Hold…forever…..

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		117,300
1	58	117,300
2	45	117,300
3	66	117,300
4	45	163,400
5		191,600
6	44	191,600
7		211,900
8	31	211,900
9	7	212,000
10	41	194,400
11	42.1	179,700
12	42.1	174,070	-5,630	-5,630
13	42.1	185,824	11,754	6,124
14
15	42.1	195,048	9,223	15,348
16	42.1	201,884	6,837	22,184
17	42.1	206,952	5,068	27,252

Simpson:   Going so well until the 20.  Which, oddly, makes him a hold.  That 20 goes out of his average for R14, so his price will go up while he covers R14 & R15  Has the Magic bye.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,100
1		166,100
2		166,100
3		166,100
4		166,100
5		166,100
6	80	166,100
7	58	166,100
8	66	166,100
9	65	216,100
10	20	246,000
11	57.8	250,600
12	57.8	250,510	-90	-90
13
14	57.8	247,179	-3,331	-3,421
15	57.8	261,850	14,671	11,250
16	57.8	272,725	10,875	22,125
17	57.8	280,787	8,061	30,187

Humphrey:   Also has the magic bye. Hold.

Given	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		184,800
1		184,800
2		184,800
3		184,800
4	39	184,800
5	38	184,800
6	43	184,800
7	-3	191,100
8	64	177,000
9	117	178,800
10	101	213,400
11	57.0	285,700
12	57.0	336,475	50,775	50,775
13
14	57.0	346,905	10,430	61,205
15	57.0	334,683	-12,221	48,983
16	57.0	325,624	-9,059	39,924
17	57.0	318,910	-6,715	33,210

Dodgy Advice:   That was the stuff above. Well, ok, I’d still think about bringing in Humphrey. I would still fear bringing in Fyfe.  I’d still want Darcy Cameron before too long.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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