Cow Talk Round 10–>11

Written by Father Dougal on May 24 2023

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

So, byes almost here. They can make a big difference in a season, either pulling ahead or dropping behind. Many of us have been through them before, but not everyone, so I’m gonna talk some about how to get though them.

Er, aren’t you, in fact, not very good at getting thought them?

Oh oh! I know the answer to that one!

Which is?

No!

I have gotten better…I hope….

There was that one time where he did so badly that he had to let me write Cow Talk the next week while he tried to recover.

And the week after that was so bad that you couldn’t handle it and I had to take over! That was fun. 

For you….

And I stayed on after!

A clear sign that he escaped with no long term damage to his mental health from those three rounds….

Yes, I am completely fine and everything is under control.

So everyone should give, um, appropriate weight to your thoughts.

Right!

Right. Sigh.

Anyways, this year things are easier because we have two bye rounds with few than six teams out. Round 12 with four and Round 3 with two. But scoring for all the bye rounds is best 18 on field, so getting 18 on field is a lot easier for those rounds.

Best 18 but they have to be on field?

After emergencies, yes.  If, for example, you have 7 defenders who play then only six of them get scored, like any other week.

So try not to get anyone stuck on the bench!

Right!

How do we plan for the byes?

A few weeks ago…

Well, yeah, but, you still can. The big thing it so figure out who many players will be playing each week. If 18 or more, good, if 17 or less good. But we have time to fix that.

Assuming you should

Yeah, sometime it will not be worth a trade to get another player in. But, lets talk about how to try and fix things.

First check out round 15. If you are short of 18, you can plan to trade out Cow with a R15 bye for someone who will play. Oscar Baker, for example, will play in the other byes, and can then go out before R15. If that still does get you to 18, then make a note of how many you are short.

Then check Round 14. If you are short of 18, you can plan to trade out Cow with a R15 bye for someone who will play. Mitchell, for example. You can trade him to anyone who does not have a round 14 or round 15 bye.

For Round 13, if you can’t field 18, well, um, I’m not gonna think about that, but I will pray for you.  You can have lots of R13 players, and should have as many as are worth having.  Which will still let you field 18.

Found Round 12, if you are short of 18, you can plan to trade out Cows for players with the round 13 bye if you can. If you have enough for R14 or R15, you can bring someone if from them, but I would be careful about bringing in someone who does not play in a round you are already having a problem with.

Once a player’s bye has passed you can bring them in for sure knowing they will play the rest of the byes. In practice you get an extra week out of them.

So, well, the idea is to know who not to bring in, and to bring in players once they are past their bye. The tricky part is what to do with players who have a later bye but you can use to upgrade before then. No one answer to that, you have to figure out what gets more points total. If you use Baker to upgrade and get 150 points from that, and you don’t use him to get in a R15 player and score 0 for that 18th spot, well, that 150 might be more that whoever would have come in for him to make 18.

 

To help, here are the updated charts I talked about last week.

Weeks left Cash Points Make up 100
13 $100,000 107.7 7.7
12 $108,333 116.7 8.3
11 $118,182 127.3 9.1
10 $130,000 140.0 10.0
9 $144,444 155.6 11.1
8 $162,500 175.0 12.5
7 $185,714 200.0 14.3
6 $216,667 233.3 16.7
5 $260,000 280.0 20.0
4 $325,000 350.0 25.0
3 $433,333 466.7 33.3
2 $650,000 700.0 50.0
1 $1,300,000 1400.0 100.0
Weeks left Cash Points
13 $100,000 100.0
12 $92,308 92.3
11 $84,615 84.6
10 $76,923 76.9
9 $69,231 69.2
8 $61,538 61.5
7 $53,846 53.8
6 $46,154 46.2
5 $38,462 38.5
4 $30,769 30.8
3 $23,077 23.1
2 $15,385 15.4
1 $7,692 7.7

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: Still looking like a keeper. At the very worst keep to R15.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 198,300
1 114 198,300
2 114 198,300
3 120 198,300
4 111 304,500
5 100 381,800
6 53 431,600
7 107 438,800
8 110 443,200
9 68 452,000
10 112 464,600
11 100.9 475,400
12 100.9 479,765 4,365 4,365
13 100.9 497,920 18,154 22,520
14 100.9 506,343 8,424 30,943
15
16 100.9 512,587 6,244 37,187
17 100.9 517,216 4,628 41,816

Ginbey:   That 35 will slow his cash, but not stop it because of the 108 in his three round average.  The problem is his bye is a round after his probable top price. On the other hand, odds are he won’t be needed to avoid a donut in the happy R13 bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 171,300
1 85 171,300
2 76 171,300
3 104 171,300
4 40 246,900
5 51 282,500
6 62 296,800
7 39 288,900
8 61 283,100
9 108 284,000
10 35 305,000
11 66.1 318,200
12 66.1 330,683 12,483 12,483
13 66.1 320,936 -9,747 2,736
14
15 66.1 327,814 6,878 9,614
16 66.1 332,912 5,098 14,712
17 66.1 336,690 3,779 18,490

McKenna:  Since he covers Rounds 13-15 it might be wroth holding and hoping his price goes back up.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 167,500
1 93 167,500
2 78 167,500
3 57 167,500
4 86 227,300
5 55 268,500
6 57 287,800
7 70 302,600
8 46 306,900
9 35 306,700
10 53 296,000
11 63.0 279,900
12
13 63.0 275,947 -3,953 -3,953
14 63.0 285,714 9,767 5,814
15 63.0 297,488 11,774 17,588
16 63.0 306,216 8,728 26,316
17 63.0 312,685 6,469 32,785

Wilmot: A new season high score mean he might be a hold until after the bye, as he will both provide cover and make money.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 51 123,900
2 68 123,900
3 69 123,900
4 50 176,900
5 68 215,700
6 39 243,900
7 63 251,600
8 50 263,600
9 75 264,900
10 83 281,700
11 61.6 302,800
12
13 61.6 324,029 21,229 21,229
14 61.6 333,689 9,660 30,889
15 61.6 331,145 -2,544 28,345
16 61.6 329,259 -1,886 26,459
17 61.6 327,861 -1,398 25,061

Cowan:  Did not play. 

L Jones: Still looks like time to sell, unless you want to hold for cover and sell R15.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 228,100
1 5 228,100
2 76 228,100
3 68 228,100
4 45 236,300
5 88 260,600
6 53 283,400
7 54 293,900
8 41 306,300
9 66 294,800
10 62 291,700
11 55.8 292,600
12 55.8 300,234 7,634 7,634
13 55.8 301,268 1,034 8,668
14 55.8 299,223 -2,045 6,623
15
16 55.8 297,707 -1,516 5,107
17 55.8 296,583 -1,124 3,983

Michalanney: Given his recent low scores he might lose more than if he goes at his average as in the projections.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 135,300
1 62 135,300
2 48 135,300
3 82 135,300
4 103 187,200
5 60 244,200
6 50 291,100
7 51 311,800
8 64 304,100
9 48 300,900
10 45 297,200
11 61.3 291,200
12 61.3 285,820 -5,380 -5,380
13 61.3 287,863 2,043 -3,337
14
15 61.3 296,768 8,906 5,568
16 61.3 303,370 6,601 12,170
17 61.3 308,263 4,893 17,063

Buckley:  No idea why his scoring dropped. sell now or hold until his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 205,000
1 76 205,000
2 99 205,000
3 99 205,000
4 80 275,900
5 78 330,300
6 87 360,100
7 91 377,400
8 99 395,800
9 44 419,900
10 62 417,600
11 81.5 402,200
12 81.5 383,153 -19,047 -19,047
13 81.5 386,039 2,886 -16,161
14 81.5 397,021 10,982 -5,179
15
16 81.5 405,161 8,140 2,961
17 81.5 411,195 6,034 8,995

Stocker: Seems like a hold until after the byes.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 216,400
1 74 216,400
2 74 216,400
3 70 216,400
4 77 258,900
5 78 291,100
6 58 317,400
7 69 331,300
8 103 338,500
9 73 356,000
10 75 375,200
11 75.1 391,600
12
13 75.1 391,439 -161 -161
14 75.1 392,272 833 672
15 75.1 392,934 663 1,334
16 75.1 393,426 491 1,826
17 75.1 393,790 364 2,190

Mitchell: Really clear hold until his bye while he goes up a lot in value. Knock on wood, no jinks.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 123,900
2 123,900
3 123,900
4 123,900
5 67 123,900
6 79 123,900
7 41 123,900
8 54 176,600
9 74 210,300
10 82 232,700
11 66.2 267,500
12 66.2 299,027 31,527 31,527
13 66.2 318,844 19,817 51,344
14
15 66.2 326,354 7,510 58,854
16 66.2 331,920 5,566 64,420
17 66.2 336,046 4,126 68,546

Weddle: Like Mitchell but on steroids. (Insert Essendon joke here)

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 130,800
1 130,800
2 130,800
3 130,800
4 130,800
5 130,800
6 130,800
7 38 130,800
8 54 130,800
9 65 130,800
10 114 168,200
11 67.8 230,200
12 67.8 282,526 52,326 52,326
13 67.8 322,559 40,033 92,359
14
15 67.8 331,261 8,702 101,061
16 67.8 337,712 6,451 107,512
17 67.8 342,493 4,781 112,293

Atkins: One of those guys who you want to keep because of he R13 bye.  Seems likely to go up price over that time.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 203,900
1 203,900
2 203,900
3 203,900
4 203,900
5 203,900
6 203,900
7 89 203,900
8 68 203,900
9 62 203,900
10 102 250,600
11 80.3 290,700
12 80.3 326,238 35,538 35,538
13
14 80.3 360,855 34,618 70,155
15 80.3 376,653 15,798 85,953
16 80.3 388,363 11,710 97,663
17 80.3 397,043 8,680 106,343

 

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Hold, just hold.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 202,800
1 55 202,800
2 105 202,800
3 80 202,800
4 75 258,800
5 72 309,400
6 76 331,100
7 103 345,900
8 37 370,200
9 97 373,200
10 124 384,300
11 82.4 401,500
12
13 82.4 435,190 33,690 33,690
14 82.4 453,542 18,352 52,042
15 82.4 448,281 -5,260 46,781
16 82.4 444,382 -3,899 42,882
17 82.4 441,492 -2,890 39,992

Baker: Classic hold until R15, unless you can somehow make more by harvesting him and using the cash.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 43 123,900
2 55 123,900
3 95 123,900
4 47 179,200
5 53 222,000
6 59 252,100
7 69 258,500
8 50 273,700
9 58 284,200
10 61 291,100
11 59.0 292,200
12 59.0 297,308 5,108 5,108
13 59.0 301,548 4,240 9,348
14 59.0 303,783 2,236 11,583
15
16 59.0 305,441 1,657 13,241
17 59.0 306,669 1,228 14,469

Hollands:  …pretty much a K-mart version of Baker.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 162,300
1 56 162,300
2 71 162,300
3 66 162,300
4 52 207,600
5 65 239,300
6 60 259,400
7 60 272,100
8 51 285,600
9 58 289,900
10 37 291,700
11 57.6 282,200
12 57.6 278,378 -3,822 -3,822
13 57.6 275,363 -3,015 -6,837
14 57.6 282,470 7,107 270
15
16 57.6 287,737 5,268 5,537
17 57.6 291,642 3,905 9,442

Callaghan: At this point he looks like a trade out R15, like a high class Baker.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 244,000
1 101 244,000
2 45 244,000
3 37 244,000
4 65 263,600
5 72 261,700
6 77 271,900
7 88 298,800
8 59 328,300
9 85 345,700
10 68 361,600
11 69.7 363,800
12 69.7 370,651 6,851 6,851
13 69.7 368,791 -1,860 4,991
14 69.7 368,183 -608 4,383
15
16 69.7 367,733 -450 3,933
17 69.7 367,399 -334 3,599

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Has the magic bye and is a ruck. Hold.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 174,000
1 55 174,000
2 31 174,000
3 47 174,000
4 88 189,000
5 88 215,100
6 75 259,600
7 43 305,700
8 88 320,000
9 77 331,300
10 75 340,100
11 66.7 360,600
12 66.7 366,465 5,865 5,865
13
14 66.7 366,142 -323 5,542
15 66.7 362,138 -4,003 1,538
16 66.7 359,171 -2,967 -1,429
17 66.7 356,971 -2,200 -3,629

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: If you own him, then probably a hold until his bye, since he does seem to be making money again.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 180,300
1 93 180,300
2 52 180,300
3 89 180,300
4 49 239,500
5 14 263,400
6 48 263,300
7 245,100
8 245,100
9 61 245,100
10 87 237,600
11 61.6 264,700
12 61.6 264,700
13 61.6 291,548 26,848 26,848
14
15 61.6 299,942 8,394 35,242
16 61.6 306,164 6,222 41,464
17 61.6 310,776 4,612 46,076

Greene:  Did not play.

Phillipou: Well, he plays over the bad byes and isn’t losing cash. Has not made much, maybe he’ll go big just once.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 166,800
1 76 166,800
2 59 166,800
3 51 166,800
4 61 207,700
5 67 231,200
6 39 251,700
7 20 261,800
8 56 251,200
9 43 238,900
10 63 231,200
11 53.5 244,600
12
13 53.5 253,636 9,036 9,036
14 53.5 265,094 11,459 20,494
15 53.5 269,281 4,186 24,681
16 53.5 272,383 3,103 27,783
17 53.5 274,683 2,300 30,083

Phillips: Did play! If he is not the sub He’ll make cash. Hold until his bye?

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 158,300
1 65 158,300
2 158,300
3 78 158,300
4 67 158,300
5 74 212,400
6 36 255,900
7 269,400
8 269,400
9 269,400
10 70 269,400
11 65.0 281,000
12 65.0 285,832 4,832 4,832
13 65.0 302,564 16,732 21,564
14 65.0 312,699 10,135 31,699
15
16 65.0 320,211 7,513 39,211
17 65.0 325,780 5,569 44,780

Chandler: Went big but not big enough to make his BE. Could make or ose from here. Hold to his bye? Yes, I say that a lot, because a lot of times it is a good plan, in general, for a lot of cows. Your cows may vary.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 93 123,900
2 71 123,900
3 90 123,900
4 59 206,800
5 56 252,800
6 85 279,400
7 104 297,200
8 57 331,400
9 42 358,000
10 86 357,600
11 74.3 348,600
12 74.3 350,133 1,533 1,533
13 74.3 365,917 15,783 17,317
14
15 74.3 372,310 6,394 23,710
16 74.3 377,050 4,739 28,450
17 74.3 380,563 3,513 31,963

Davey:  Well, 40 is more than zero. Hold…forever…..

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 117,300
1 58 117,300
2 45 117,300
3 66 117,300
4 45 163,400
5 191,600
6 44 191,600
7 211,900
8 31 211,900
9 7 212,000
10 41 194,400
11 42.1 179,700
12 42.1 174,070 -5,630 -5,630
13 42.1 185,824 11,754 6,124
14
15 42.1 195,048 9,223 15,348
16 42.1 201,884 6,837 22,184
17 42.1 206,952 5,068 27,252

Simpson:   Going so well until the 20.  Which, oddly, makes him a hold.  That 20 goes out of his average for R14, so his price will go up while he covers R14 & R15  Has the Magic bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 166,100
1 166,100
2 166,100
3 166,100
4 166,100
5 166,100
6 80 166,100
7 58 166,100
8 66 166,100
9 65 216,100
10 20 246,000
11 57.8 250,600
12 57.8 250,510 -90 -90
13
14 57.8 247,179 -3,331 -3,421
15 57.8 261,850 14,671 11,250
16 57.8 272,725 10,875 22,125
17 57.8 280,787 8,061 30,187

Humphrey:   Also has the magic bye. Hold.

Given Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 184,800
1 184,800
2 184,800
3 184,800
4 39 184,800
5 38 184,800
6 43 184,800
7 -3 191,100
8 64 177,000
9 117 178,800
10 101 213,400
11 57.0 285,700
12 57.0 336,475 50,775 50,775
13
14 57.0 346,905 10,430 61,205
15 57.0 334,683 -12,221 48,983
16 57.0 325,624 -9,059 39,924
17 57.0 318,910 -6,715 33,210

Dodgy Advice:   That was the stuff above. Well, ok, I’d still think about bringing in Humphrey. I would still fear bringing in Fyfe.  I’d still want Darcy Cameron before too long.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk Round 10–>11”

  1. Love it” a K mart baker”, keep up the good work or you off to the Philippines with an f.

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  2. Unfortunately for me because I traded him, but great for everyone who kept him, Sheezel looks like he has gone from being a cow to a stallion.

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  3. Hello Father, thankyou once again for this gracious sermon.

    I’ve been trying to use your new chart from last week and now this week to try help me decide about Clayton in-or-out. I’m don’t think I was doing it right so just went old fashioned instead:

    Clayton maintains 125 avg and out 4 weeks: 125 * 9 = 1125
    Trade to 110 avg this week: 110 * 12[13 – 1 bye] = 1320
    Clayton plays an extra game or two but lower average: 115 * 11 = 1265 or 120 * 11 = 1320

    Seems like if he’ll play a hampered recovery game or two instead of being out 4 weeks, it would be worthwhile to hold if he eventually gets back to 130+s. Wondering if your make-up-value charts could work in reverse somehow for when trading a player down.

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    1. Don’t forget to include whoever is playing in his place while he is out. Probably add 4*50=200 to the 125 * 9 = 1125 for 1325.

      They should work in reverse.

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  4. Bah, I’m very much in “Help, I’ve fallen and can’t get up” state when it comes to my rookies.

    Don’t have Humphrey or Weddle – too late to bring them in.

    I’ve got Simpson, Ginbie, Davey, Sharp, Chesser, Cincotta, Gould and Constable. Too much stagnation. I want to move to Ford or Wardlaw but I think it’s premature. Might have to just wait and see.

    Thank god for Sheezel, Ashcroft, Ratkins and Mitchell.

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    1. Maybe not too late to bring in Weddle or Humphrey given the limited cash generation on offer elsewhere

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      1. You don’t need to go there. You have Baldwin whose on the bubble this week and the 2 Nth boys on the bubble next week.

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