Defender TLAs Batch #1

Written by Father Dougal on February 9 2020

Hi Everybody!


Here I go, about to take the dive into making predictions. 

You’re mad I tell you, clearly mad!

I know, but, well, I’m owning up to my madness, and embracing it. Stating it up front. Do you know what another word for predictions is?


Exact-a-mundo!  I am totally guessing. There is data used in my guesses, and I am showing it, and talking about it, but in the end these are just semi-educated guesses. The Craggy Island Guarantee is so in force for these. 

All predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Right, unless it turns out money is actually involved, in which case you get no money back. 

Or Pumpkin seeds!

Right again!  Those are agricultural products and probably illegal to ship anyways. So, one more time, this post, ‘cause I’m gonna have a disclaimer in every TLA post, that unlike the rest of my stuff where I try to stick to either math based things or non-math theory stuff, I’m using not math that looks sort of like math, which might lead the unwary to think I’m using math, when I’m not. 

Not math, just you eyeballing player histories and making things up. 

With as much explanation as I can manage. I might even just say that my gut feels something as a reason. 



It is too early in the season for cries of heresy, no matter how warranted. So, without further disclaimers, my TLA thoughts for the first batch of defenders. 

Jake Lloyd

Year Games Average Age TLA %
2014 18 58.4 20
2015 20 69.3 21
2016 22 84.6 22 85 0.995
2017 21 87.3 23 85 1.027
2018 22 112 24 110 1.018
2019 22 108.9 25 110 0.990
107-113 110 OR
95-101 98

He has established a level over two seasons and is only turning 26. In theory he should be about the same for this season. However, as we mostly all know, he had a drop off at the end of the season right after I finally brought him in. Some bloke stole his points. That bloke is still there. Points might be stolen yet again. So, for my very first defender I make two predictions. The one I don’t think is right, is the one at the top, where he keeps up his 110ish average. That would involve his role staying just the same and him being mostly unaffected by the new people around him. My actual thinking is the people around him are going to ruin the seagull that lays the golden eggs, and he’ll drop ten or so points. So, really I’m saying 95 to 113, which is very safe from a prediction point of view but minimally useful. If you think he will be unaffected by the changes around him, then he’ll do about what he is priced at. If you think he will be affected by the changes around him, then he’s gonna take a hit, and score well below what he is priced at. I’m in the “he’s gonna take a hit” camp, and thus staying away at the start of the season.


Bachar Houli

Year Games Average Age TLA
2007 4 39.2 18
2008 10 84.2 19
2009 7 73.4 20
2010 5 83.4 21
2011 22 89.2 22 90
2012 22 83.1 23 90
2013 20 91.5 24 90
2014 22 83.2 25 90
2015 22 95.6 26 90
2016 12 89.3 27 90
2017 18 94.1 28 90
2018 13 73.6 29 90
2019 19 105.3 30 90
90-97 90

Can you say career year? Let’s all say career year together. There is no way he had a breakout season at 30. He’s playing Frogger, and I think going back to his 2016-2017 output is a good result to hope for. He could easily drop into the 80s. If there is a really clear reason that I do not know about that he could keep up the 105ish average, please tell us all in the comments. Barring such a revelation, I wouldn’t even suggest hard-core Richmond fans pick him.  Oh, and I just realized the kick in rule, I’m an idiot. Still, would not pick him. 


Shannon Hurn

Year Games Average Age TLA
2006 6 46.5 18
2007 22 67.1 19
2008 6 53 20
2009 22 93.4 21 87
2010 15 84.6 22 87
2011 22 82.3 23 87
2012 22 91.4 24 87
2013 12 87.5 25 87
2014 18 86.9 26 87
2015 22 75.7 27 87
2016 22 82.4 28 87
2017 21 88.6 29 86
2018 22 96.4 30 85
2019 19 103.5 31 84
90-100 83

Like Houli but a year older, and with two years of surprise rise! Kick in rule helped last season I bet.  Goodness the first three guys are all weird…and at the top from last year. Ohhh, the top guys last season probably had luck going for them! Duh. No way would I pick a 32 year old who just has a career year. That’s the main thing. 

Zac Williams

Year Games Average Age TLA
2013 11 58.7 18
2014 8 64.9 19
2015 12 69.6 20
2016 20 88.2 21 88
2017 20 93.9 22 93
2018 0 23 96
2019 20 101.6 24 99
99-106 102

I think he is likely to get at least a little better, and if he does move to the mids could get even more better. (Apologies to any English teachers.)  I don’t see a reason other than luck for him to go backwards. 


Caleb Daniel

Year Games Average Age TLA
2015 9 54.7 18
2016 20 79 19 78
2017 20 79.3 20 78
2018 20 77.1 21 78
2019 17 99.1 22 100
98-105 102

He is only 23 (!) and moving into defense sure helped him, I expect him to get at last a bit better. I’m not sure he can get too much better, but second season in the position and turning 23 are small bumps to me. I would not be shocked if he had more upside then we are expecting. 


Tom Stewart

Year Games Average Age TLA
2017 18 67.4 23
2018 21 85.3 24 85
2019 22 98.2 25 98
97-103 99

Wow, I just had the first possible change to my team show up as a result of doing these. A small bump for turning 26, steady progression up so far. Has only played 61 games, so he is still learning and there is room for improvement. Tom going up to 105 would not look crazy, if things fell his way. The main thing is I would not expect him to go backwards much if at all, and he might be a nice safeish pick down back. My memory is that he passes the eye test too. 


Dane Rampe

Year Games Average Age TLA
2013 20 59.5 22
2014 22 76 23
2015 22 84.9 24 85
2016 22 86.1 25 85
2017 15 77.7 26 85
2018 22 77.8 27 85
2019 21 97.2 28 85
88-95 85

It looks like that 2017 injury depressed his scores for two seasons. Still his 2019 is a surprise. It is hard to think he has broken out at 28, so some downturn seems likely. 


So, seven down, lots more to go!

Thanks for reading!



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22 thoughts on “Defender TLAs Batch #1”

  1. Brilliant as usual FD. As soon as Stewart is confirmed fit, he goes straight into my team.

    Looking ahead to the forwards….I have questions to be asked and hopefully answered


  2. Hey FD, or any other worth scribes on this site.
    Anyone interest in doing a piece about season break down if at all possible.
    What I mean is, your team score at certain parts of the season.
    I. E. Your lowest score that’s exceptable (on average) for the start of season, culling time, byes etc. Obviously a rough guide. But something to work off with starting structures, byes and such.
    Pretty sure there’s definitely a trend to be analized and capitalised on.


    1. I did a look at season totals a few times in the past. If I recall that changes season to season though, which made it tricky.

      This year I’m pushing the limit of what I can do in the pre-season with the player by player stuff. Maybe you can talk someone else into trying though.


  3. Good stuff! Thanks for doing all the research for us – especially age. Wish we could see that alongside career stats in SuperCoach app!


  4. Based on this I’m dropping Lloyd and bringing in zac Williams. Some great stats there FD. Well done on all the research you do. Where do you find the time?


    1. I pretty much set aside my free time from mid January until first bounce for Supercoach research and writing. With some time dedicated to keeping me from going mad from it all. Well, more mad…..


  5. FD, love your work.
    Can you do a graph for the alcohol that you can drink at 18 and the average per age each year afterwards? 😛


  6. Great write up mate! I did the exact same things in my trusty supercoach book at home with similar results!


  7. Great content as always!

    I do question your confidence in zac Williams though. To me he seems as likely as not to spend less time in the midfield this year given the midfield depth the giants have and that he played midfield due to injuries last year.

    Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Taranto, Hopper, Whitfield are all midfield locks. Add Toby Greene, hately, caldwell and now tom green to that mix and there’s a lot of competition for midfield minutes.

    I just don’t see his midfield time going up unless injuries strike GWS heavily


    1. I’m not counting on midfield time going up, just some natural progression. I mostly think he won’t go backwards and might get better.


      1. Ahh but you’re not considering that his midfield time could go down?

        I felt like his best scores last year were from playing in the midfield which shifts his average (and TLA) a fair bit. No doubt he’s still a gun defender but I see a big difference between his rds 1-9 and 12+ last year (notably his tackling increasing) as he spent more time on ball.


        1. Given the Giants mids history of getting hurt, I expect him to spend some time there again. I don’t expect enough of a decrease that it would be an issue.


  8. Hey FD, any issue with Daniel only playing 17 games last season? I currently have him but that’s worrying me a little. Has the new position presented greater risk of injury to the little man where as all his past 20 game seasons were playing foward?


  9. Im going to take you ceilings of Williams at 106 and Daniel at 105, and hope they shidt closer to those numbers.

    D1 williams and D2 Daniel for me. Yes they could both average 95 and ruin my year,but i like them as somewhat pods



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