Defender TLAs Batch #1

Hi Everybody!

Here I go, about to take the dive into making predictions.

You’re mad I tell you, clearly mad!

I know, but, well, I’m owning up to my madness, and embracing it. Stating it up front. Do you know what another word for predictions is?

Guesses!

Exact-a-mundo! I am totally guessing. There is data used in my guesses, and I am showing it, and talking about it, but in the end these are just semi-educated guesses. The Craggy Island Guarantee is so in force for these.

All predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Right, unless it turns out money is actually involved, in which case you get no money back.

Or Pumpkin seeds!

Right again! Those are agricultural products and probably illegal to ship anyways. So, one more time, this post, ‘cause I’m gonna have a disclaimer in every TLA post, that unlike the rest of my stuff where I try to stick to either math based things or non-math theory stuff, I’m using not math that looks sort of like math, which might lead the unwary to think I’m using math, when I’m not.

Not math, just you eyeballing player histories and making things up.

With as much explanation as I can manage. I might even just say that my gut feels something as a reason.

(faints)

Heresy!

It is too early in the season for cries of heresy, no matter how warranted. So, without further disclaimers, my TLA thoughts for the first batch of defenders.

Jake Lloyd

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA	%
2014	18	58.4	20
2015	20	69.3	21
2016	22	84.6	22	85	0.995
2017	21	87.3	23	85	1.027
2018	22	112	24	110	1.018
2019	22	108.9	25	110	0.990
		107-113		110	OR
		95-101		98

He has established a level over two seasons and is only turning 26. In theory he should be about the same for this season. However, as we mostly all know, he had a drop off at the end of the season right after I finally brought him in. Some bloke stole his points. That bloke is still there. Points might be stolen yet again. So, for my very first defender I make two predictions. The one I don’t think is right, is the one at the top, where he keeps up his 110ish average. That would involve his role staying just the same and him being mostly unaffected by the new people around him. My actual thinking is the people around him are going to ruin the seagull that lays the golden eggs, and he’ll drop ten or so points. So, really I’m saying 95 to 113, which is very safe from a prediction point of view but minimally useful. If you think he will be unaffected by the changes around him, then he’ll do about what he is priced at. If you think he will be affected by the changes around him, then he’s gonna take a hit, and score well below what he is priced at. I’m in the “he’s gonna take a hit” camp, and thus staying away at the start of the season.

Bachar Houli

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2007	4	39.2	18
2008	10	84.2	19
2009	7	73.4	20
2010	5	83.4	21
2011	22	89.2	22	90
2012	22	83.1	23	90
2013	20	91.5	24	90
2014	22	83.2	25	90
2015	22	95.6	26	90
2016	12	89.3	27	90
2017	18	94.1	28	90
2018	13	73.6	29	90
2019	19	105.3	30	90
		90-97		90

Can you say career year? Let’s all say career year together. There is no way he had a breakout season at 30. He’s playing Frogger, and I think going back to his 2016-2017 output is a good result to hope for. He could easily drop into the 80s. If there is a really clear reason that I do not know about that he could keep up the 105ish average, please tell us all in the comments. Barring such a revelation, I wouldn’t even suggest hard-core Richmond fans pick him. Oh, and I just realized the kick in rule, I’m an idiot. Still, would not pick him.

Shannon Hurn

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2006	6	46.5	18
2007	22	67.1	19
2008	6	53	20
2009	22	93.4	21	87
2010	15	84.6	22	87
2011	22	82.3	23	87
2012	22	91.4	24	87
2013	12	87.5	25	87
2014	18	86.9	26	87
2015	22	75.7	27	87
2016	22	82.4	28	87
2017	21	88.6	29	86
2018	22	96.4	30	85
2019	19	103.5	31	84
		90-100		83

Like Houli but a year older, and with two years of surprise rise! Kick in rule helped last season I bet. Goodness the first three guys are all weird…and at the top from last year. Ohhh, the top guys last season probably had luck going for them! Duh. No way would I pick a 32 year old who just has a career year. That’s the main thing.

Zac Williams

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	11	58.7	18
2014	8	64.9	19
2015	12	69.6	20
2016	20	88.2	21	88
2017	20	93.9	22	93
2018	0		23	96
2019	20	101.6	24	99
		99-106		102

I think he is likely to get at least a little better, and if he does move to the mids could get even more better. (Apologies to any English teachers.) I don’t see a reason other than luck for him to go backwards.

Caleb Daniel

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	9	54.7	18
2016	20	79	19	78
2017	20	79.3	20	78
2018	20	77.1	21	78
2019	17	99.1	22	100
		98-105		102

He is only 23 (!) and moving into defense sure helped him, I expect him to get at last a bit better. I’m not sure he can get too much better, but second season in the position and turning 23 are small bumps to me. I would not be shocked if he had more upside then we are expecting.

Tom Stewart

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2017	18	67.4	23
2018	21	85.3	24	85
2019	22	98.2	25	98
		97-103		99

Wow, I just had the first possible change to my team show up as a result of doing these. A small bump for turning 26, steady progression up so far. Has only played 61 games, so he is still learning and there is room for improvement. Tom going up to 105 would not look crazy, if things fell his way. The main thing is I would not expect him to go backwards much if at all, and he might be a nice safeish pick down back. My memory is that he passes the eye test too.

Dane Rampe

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	20	59.5	22
2014	22	76	23
2015	22	84.9	24	85
2016	22	86.1	25	85
2017	15	77.7	26	85
2018	22	77.8	27	85
2019	21	97.2	28	85
		88-95		85

It looks like that 2017 injury depressed his scores for two seasons. Still his 2019 is a surprise. It is hard to think he has broken out at 28, so some downturn seems likely.

So, seven down, lots more to go!

Thanks for reading!

Defender TLAs Batch #1

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