Fallen Premiums – Round 9, 2024

Written by Abs on May 8 2024

Talk about a carnage week, the SC Gods really need to tone things down going forward. Was really hoping my Hawkers not only walked away with the win, but also seeing Luke Beveridge coach his last game. Alas, seems more likely Luke Ryan becomes SC irrelevant than the latter happening.

Update on my team: Have climbed to 169 overall (somehow), now just waiting for the wheels to come flying off! Can anyone also tell me if they actually took any inspiration from my Tom Green fade (and grab post-bye) logic last week, and didn’t bring him in?

A tale of two images…


Green and Ryan scoring 200+ between them was a round saver.

Tom Stewart (GEE, $523.4k, (-$111.9k), 98.4 AVG, 132 BE) How the mighty have fallen. I’ve been a massive Tom Stewart naysayer this season, but now that he’s bottomed out at a healthy 523k, I have no qualms with those keen to pounce. I do believe considering his age, and the likes of Max Holmes now playing distributor that Stewart’s ceiling has been capped. I can’t see him averaging 110+ from here-on, but as a D5-D6 you could do much, much worse. Me personally, I prefer Hayden Young at a similar price, but going tried and true with Stewart can’t be argued against!

Backing it up…
Harry Sheezel, 613k, 168 BE
Dan Houston, 607k, 145 BE
Tom Stewart, 523k, 132 BE


I wonder what bedtime story he read Rowell after the Q-Clash?

Josh Dunkley (BRL, $618.8k, (-$25.2k), 116.9 AVG, 69 BE) I did flag Dunkley not too long ago (did any of you jump on?), and the only reason I’d be personally hesitant is due to the bye which is only three games away. Dunks has been largely going under the radar, scoring reasonably consistent with no real down games. If Lions find a semblance of form, I still have faith he can finish top 8! He’s one I’ll be looking to bring in fresh off his bye, but can also understand those that are light in R12 looking to jump on this week!

Clayton Oliver (MEL, $476.7k, (-$197.4k), 89.9 AVG, 48 BE) a bit of a vintage performance for Satan this past weekend has many coaches (including myself) keen on the Dees Midfielder. 31 touches, 17 contested, 81% DE, 4 tackles and a monster 141 points. Jon Ralph had flagged during the Dees bye, that Oliver was dealing with rib, foot and finger issues (in which he actually had to receive surgery on the finger). All of which have been resolved in the time since. Simon Goodwin also had a fair bit of praise for Oliver after the Cats game. “He (Oliver) is really close to being back to his best… We couldn’t be prouder about the way he’s going at the moment.” Last week against the Tigers he actually looked quite good to the eye. It was a low-stoppage game (lowest of the round), with the Tigers sitting behind the ball which hindered his ability to score, Clarry did still manage 82 points. The lack of pre-season is a concern, but the CBA’s have spiked post-bye, 81% v the Tigs, 78% v the Cats. The Demons also have another bye which allows the man to recoup in a handful of weeks. Can continue to see Oliver build into form and fitness as the season progresses. Can understand the skeptics wanting to wait another week, that’s definitely the sensible thing to do in a situation like this. The only caveat is you’ll be paying an extra 25-30k for the additional data.

Darcy Parish (ESS, $528.6k, (-$75.6k), 95 AVG, 28 BE) with two big scores back to back, Parish definitely deserves a mention this week. 81% CBA’s, second only to Merrett (88%). 36 disposals, 8 contested @75% DE, with 5 tackles for a whopping 148 points. At this point, while I still personally believe some shuffling can and will happen with the midfield mix, a healthy Parish with some great upcoming fixtures IS Supercoach relevant, and I won’t be surprised if he gets up to around 600-620k at his bye. I’ll also quickly just flag Darcy’s soft-tissue injury history, quite frankly it’s not pretty, and something to be wary of. Now, the big question I’ve seen thrown around is “Oliver or Parish”, and while I think the potential upside and value is more apparent with Oliver, those outside the top 1000 looking for a little bit of spice could definitely consider going the Dons midfielder. Not for me (I still prefer paying up for Zach Merrett),  but I completely understand the temptation.

Limbo land…
Will Day, 545k, 185 BE
Tom Liberatore, 616k, 169 BE*
Matt Rowell, 634k, 159 BE
Connor Rozee, 522k, 153 BE*
Patrick Cripps, 586k, 149 BE
Zak Butters, 621k, 148 BE
Sam Walsh, 599k, 146 BE
Tom Green, 541k, 144 BE*


Don’t want to discuss Tim English again, so here’s another pic.

Sean Darcy, 568k, 137 BE
Max Gawn, 714k, 133 BE


Charlie Curnow (CAR, $498.6k, (-$46.7k), 91.5 AVG, 122 BE) if your first thought is “a Key-Forward, really?” Well I don’t blame you… the two-time Coleman Medalist however has been quite consistent with his scoring prowess, and has found him (like many KPF’s) having fallen down to a reasonable price. The beauty of KPF’s comes from looping them, instead of targeting the Zorko’s of the forward-line (*cough burn-man), I’d rather personally angle for a Curnow type with an F7 that allows loop potential with a completed team. Post-bye the Carlton fixture does open up a fair bit, he’s one I’ll be personally looking at fresh off the bye, definitely keep a close eye on Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow til then (and I wouldn’t blame you for hopping on sooner then later).

Forward thinking…
Shai Bolton, 521k, 194 BE
Isaac Heeney, 639k, 135 BE


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12 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 9, 2024”

  1. Always a good read, look forward to it each week!
    One bloke I’m thinking of is Neale, now $595k, average about 116, although like Dunks, has the bye coming up. Rowell also one to look at in a few weeks, he could be under $600k also.


    1. I’m getting Lachie this week. A Brownlow medallist who is going at 117 ppg at 2.6% ownership for under 600K???!!! Stuff the byes, sign me up.


  2. Got to love how so many of these fallen premiums have the Rd 14 bye. Has everyone been planning out their bye structure?


    1. I’m taking a hit that week so much value I’ve gone that week, hopefully the value outweighs the points lost


    1. Absolutely mate, still has a somewhat high BE and a harder matchup this week v Blues, but jump on this week if you’re keen!


  3. Out Z Williams, Roberts and Jackson
    In Ryan, Oliver and jones

    Pros – getting two gilt edged premiums for the season
    Cons- using last boost, losing top 6 fwd in Jackson and selling Jackson at his low ( as an alternative l could trade Whitfield instead of Jackson)

    TU good trades DO it
    TD no don’t do it


  4. It’s not until you realise how far down the list of players you need to scroll to find Oliver, you realise his value


  5. Wow great effort Abs on such a high ranking. Keep it going. Glad I didn’t bring Green in and got Serong instead. Unfortunately now have to deal with both libba and Rosie . But that’s SuperCoach for you.



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