Going to keep this post pinned as a place to drop any thoughts, bookmarks, statistics and ideas heading into the long winter (well, summer) between now and SC 2025.
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SC 2025
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Satan will be 470k next year.
Mills 370k and looks to have nabbed DEF status.
Both key discounted 2025 decisions.
Will Tracc get an injury discount?
Don’t think he gets full discount, Mark.
So still avg x5 +60k. That’s the deal Miller got last year with the same 13 games played.
575k~.
GD…I have run the abacus over a lot of possible for 2025 and had Mills at 343.2…how did you get 370 ??? In any event, if he is a def…he’s a lock.
Hey, Wighty.
His last game ticked him up from a high 60s to 73.7 avg. That times 5 should be about right?
CD’s Fantasy Freako also put out the same number. CD sometimes don’t give that full games missed discount so as not make too many autopicks. Eg. Miller this year.
I’m not certain – I know you’re great with this stuff.
Either way, he’ll be in the mid 300s.
You got any other interesting prices?
Fair enough. I was using r23 prices and a magic number of 5.5, and a 30% discount. Where can I find final prices ??? I’m working on a spreadsheet that looks at final 2024 prices and compares with likely 2025 prices….happy to share any stand out results.
Cheers
Can say at this stage that if Zach Reid is fit he’s no 1 def rookie with Gibcus and W Dawson close behind. Curtin looks a mid rookie lock as he should have dpp again. In the mids, K Brown from Dees, and Ed Allan look like rookie prospects….Cam Guthrie might be a tempting starting M6/7/8 at under 300. Rucks look to be set and forget from among the usual suspects, plus a c loop…I personally wont be paying up for Xerri to start. The real rookie value next year might be in the fwds with cheap rookies like Bauer and Woewodin, W Dawson all going to have appeal. Cats Henry and Caddy around 250 could be prospects.
I’m spewing bombers Roberts played 4 games….looks a long term prospect.
Cheers
2024 Final 5 Round Averages
Key stat, big indicator for next season, data goes away when SC ticks off to next year, jotting down here, done top 6/8 and any other interesting ones
DEF
Whitfield – 128.2
Daicos – 123.2
McGovern – 120.4
Sheezel – 120.0
Newman – 114.0
Roberts – 113.6
Ryan – 107.8
McKercher – 104.8
Young – 104.2
NWM – 103.2
D’Ambrosio – 102.2
MID
Bont – 129.8
Butters – 126.4
Brayshaw – 125.0
Flanders – 121.1
Treloar – 120.6
Newcombe – 119.6
Neale – 119.2
Green – 115.2
Hewett – 110.2
Horne-Francis – 109.8
Serong – 108.2
Richards – 98.8
Ashcroft – 92.0
RUC
Xerri – 148.8
Marshall – 130.6
Gawn – 124.6
TDK – 124.4
Cameron – 124.2
English – 102.4
Briggs – 100.8
Sweet – 96.0
Grundy – 89.4
FWD
Flanders – 121.2
Daniels – 119.0
Zorko – 111.0
Hogan – 111.2
Moore – 106.4
Cameron – 99.4
Heeney – 98.0 (-18.8 on season avg)
Peatling – 93.2
Powell – 91.0
Rankine – 87.8
Big watch on Matty Roberts
Gidday Nateo,
fully agree with that , but can add Burgoyne, was high on my starting list but never had balls to do it because of price.
Nick Hind has just been dropped by the Bombers. Assuming a club picks him up, he could be a good money maker to start next year.
Season average of 51 due to 6 games as sub from 15 games.
Went 121, 68, 113 and 101 from round 9-12 and has really performed in previous seasons. Will be an interesting watch if he gets another go
SC 2025 avoid Carlton and WCE players, burnt again this year think one would learn
Doch will be very cheap I think.
For when we all inevitably forget by 2025:
Stay away from players with interrupted pre-seasons, under an injury cloud, carrying a niggle, coming off surgery etc.
Giddy GD, can you please advise how discounts work
Generally discounts have worked like this and I’m sure will be similar to this next year with some exceptions of course.
30% discount for rookies that have played 1 or 2 games that averaged between 50 and 70, 20% if they averaged under 50 and 40% if they averaged over 70. 3 games discount is 20% if they averaged under 50 and 30% for over 50. 4 and 5 games played is 20% and 6 and 7 games played is 10%.
So a player playing 1 game can ruin his price for next season as we have seen with many players this year. Toby Conway is a great example, in Round 24 last year he played 1 game scoring 46. This saw his price for 2024 start at $180,000 which was a 30% discount on his price for an average of 46.
If you use a players average (115.26 for Merrett) and multiply it by 5600 (rough numbers) it should get a close estimate of their price for next year. Merrett will be priced at roughly $645,500 next year. There could also be some inflation which may be around the 1% mark which would make his price around $652k.
Thanks