Every season we search for the one or two premium players who will jump in average sharply and set our teams aside from the competition. Picking the same premium midfielders as everyone else can be handy for winning your Supercoach Leagues but to win the overall prize you need an edge on the competition.
So this season I thought I would look at those players just below the elite level who look primed for a break-out or are under-priced due to injury. These players will join the highly esteemed +10 Club.
Today it’s time to induct a ruckman.
Name: Todd Goldstein
Team: North Melbourne
Position: RUC
Price: $548,000
Bye round: 14
2018 average: 101ppg
2018 games played: 22
Why will Goldstein improve by 10 points?
He hasn’t done it since 2015, but Todd Goldstein has averaged 128ppg in the past and looks a decent, and under-priced, option for the second ruck position.
What makes him under-priced was his slow start, and fast finish, to 2018. As the Roo’s solo ruck to start 2018, many coaches started with him and after two promising 100+ scores to start the season, he was disappointing. For some reason he was down on form, both in his ruck tap work and his around-the-ground efforts, and he only averaged 88ppg in the first 8 weeks.
Many coaches traded him out during that poor run which made it doubly frustrating when he suddenly returned to the Goldenstein of old with 12 scores over 100 points from his final 14 matches and an average of 110.6ppg. There was no mention of injury and he certainly wasn’t forced to share the ruck role, so there was no explanation for the sudden reversal of fortunes. Perhaps the much-publicized struggle in his personal life had impacted on his form and he simply needed to regain his confidence.
Whatever the cause, Goldy has spoken of his high motivation levels at the end of 2018 that drove him to shed 5kg in the post season. He wants to extend his career and play finals again so he should be fired up for 2019. To further push Goldy’s case, Preuss has made the odd decision to join Melbourne and poor old Majak Daw is unavailable so Goldy will definitely ruck alone.
Why won’t he improve?
As mentioned, Goldstein hasn’t scored 128ppg since 2015 and that was a once off. Can he really push his scoring back up to the heights of 110+ ppg?
What really limits his scoring is his lack of disposals around the ground. In his career he has peaked at 15 disposal per game in 2015, so he relies quite heavily on hit-outs and as we all know, ruckmen that rely on hit-outs can suffer some really poor matches. This was evident against Gawn in Round 3 when Goldstein scored just 57 points from 15 hit-outs.
In that impressive 2015 season Goldstein managed a crazy-high (or Gawn-like) 45 hit-outs per game, a peak he has never come close to attaining again. So, barring a surprise ‘out-of-the-box’ season, Goldy won’t average more than 37 hit-outs per game which will cap his scoring.
That said, there are few real criticisms you can make of Goldstein. True, North don’t have the best midfield to tap to, but their midfield is competitive, slightly stronger this season than last and Goldy actually recorded higher Supercoach scores late in 2018 when North were losing more than they were winning.
The fact is: Goldy has averaged 100ppg of more for 5 of the last 6 seasons with a low of 94ppg, so he is more consistent than most ruckmen.
Prediction
110ppg!
I think I can safely say that 2015 was a once-off performance and Goldy will never average over 120ppg again, but he proved in late 2018 that he can maintain a 110ppg average over an extended period of time.
With Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy super-expensive, Goldy should be a safe second ruck option.
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While I currently have Goldy in my team those stats actually concern me a bit. The talk of teams playing two rucks regularly means I’m slightly concerned he’ll lose the taps in the ruck and doesnt get the disposals to make up for it.
Definitely food for thought, might have to look into R2 more deeply.
To be fair, that disposal count is above average for a ruckman and level with Max Gawn. If Max rucks less, he may not average a lot more than Goldy unless he plays behind the ball like he did in late 2018.
Locked since Hutta’s team picker came out.
One of my favourite players from a fantasy and non fantasy perspective and with the addition of Polec, Hall and Tyson as well as his superb finish to 2018 the Goldstein of old should be returning.
Only 2 of his last 13 games in 2018 he recorded less than 10 Hitouts to Advantage compared to the 13 games prior to RD10 2018 where he recorded 8/13 less than 10 HTA. The SC averages in those games were
RD10 2018 onwards: 110.54 from 13 (2/13 below 100)
RD20 2017-RD9 2018: 85.92 from 13 (9/13 below 100)
Goldstein also achieved 5 20+ disposal games post bye (averaged 121.6 from those 5) which was the first time since 2015 he has recorded more than 1 20+ disposal game in a season.
Also regarding the ruck setup Grundy and Goldstein could be the answer as Grundstein in German translates to cornerstone/foundation.
| Grundstein in German translates to cornerstone/foundation.
That is fantastic!
Have to do this now because of the Grundstein factor…..M.
Grundstein…….very clever 😉
Will be in my side only if Pruess is a headache for Gawn in JLT.
I’m not sure I’d read too much into the JLT when it comes to premo ruck choices. Gawn has a huge tank for a ruckman.
All that said, I’m likely starting the ‘Foundation’ (cf. Adam above). Different byes and Goldy has such a lovely run v opponents upto Rd13, that he may just be priced at a straight swap for Gawn come Rd14. He does have a tough start though!
A lot could go wrong of course and I may yet go G&G if the rookie drops allow, but this provides plenty of food for thought.
Thanks Thommo.
Duffer said exactly what I was thinking?
Does any one know who will back up ruck for Kangas? Wood? Brown?
Stef Martin might be the one the benefits from these new rules as he already played with another ruckman. Grundy also, but that’s obvious.
Could also mean Zac Clarke could get a game for Essendon, even with Bellchambers.
Quality piece!
I reckon Brown pinch hit last season but expect Goldy to do most of the ruck work.
A lot of clubs will be looking to tall FWDs to play that second-ruck, punch-hitting role. Am thinking the likes of McKernan ESS and Rowan Marshall STK are more likely than a dedicated second RUC.
* pinch doh
Was that a GAFFa?
You’d only get punch-hitting when Toby Greene is playing in the ruck.
I was gonna drop him in there, but thought better of it! Definitely the king of kick-hitting. And yes, that is a thing!