The Fallen Premiums – R18

Written by MJ on July 26 2017

Defence

Taylor Adams $474K (-$53.2K) AVE 103, BE 54 – Just as ripe for the picking this week than last week. With two hundreds in succession, his price is going nowhere but over $500K. He’s the second best defender in the league this year, so don’t go without him come SC finals.

Dylan Roberton $444K (+$29.3K) AVE 97.7, BE 72 – An early season revelation for the Saints in a new role flying off half-back also saw him rise up the SC ranks to relevance in 2017. With the sixth highest average of any defender this season, hats are off to him. While Roberton hasn’t been as prolific in the second half of the year (3 tons in his last 11 games), last week he finally arrested a price decline that saw him fall from $557K. A 101 and 91 in his last two games prove he’s not done with yet.

Coming down:
Docherty $632K; BE 162
Rance $433K; BE 121

Midfield

Lachie Neale $529K (-$83.2K) AVE 110.5, BE 112 – Another consistent season from the young docker means that this is the first time he’s dropped below $540K for the whole season. Priced as high as $652K in R9 after a run of six games of 119 or more, he’s now as cheap as you may see. He’s not in the best of form, with three 90s in his last five, which may put off some prospective buyers.

Joel Selwood $482K (-$123.9K) AVE 105.8, BE 67 – He’s still super cheap, so if you missed him last week because of other trade matters to attend with, don’t forget about this man! 127 in the loss to the #1 team in the comp is nothing to sneeze at in the form department either.

Will Sloane attract the tag again after another big performance?

Rory Sloane $475K (-$115.5K) AVE 110.3, BE 66 – With six scores of 135+ under his belt this year, there’s no question the Sloane Ranger can pull out monster scores. Heck, he’s even troubled statisticians with 168, 177 and 169 thus far in 2017. However with 9 scores of under 100, there’s also no question that Rory cannot handle a tag and gets bullied all match resulting in frustration for owners. Will you board the rollercoaster ride for the remaining five weeks knowing he could lose you a final just as easily as he could win you one?

Coming down:
Gibbs $560K; BE 195
Danger $774K; BE 179
Zorko $611K; BE 169 (will not play this week)

Ruck

Shane Mumford $462K (-$74.1K) AVE 100.0, BE 49 – As per last week’s write up, Mummy seems to be back in some form just in time for SC Finals. As the #2 SC ruckman this year, it makes sense to slot him in if Kreuzer is outside your budget. Backed up his 120 with a 107 against Richmond.

Coming down:
Goldstein $524K; BE 124

Forward

Josh J. Kennedy $428K (-$103.3K) AVE 95.8, BE 81 – He’s played two games back from injury and has returned 79 and 95. Granted, the Eagles aren’t playing the best footy right now, so a turn of form should see Kennedy bag a few goals in the run home. They are heavily reliant on him to make finals. A risk, but undervalued and has a high ceiling (174 and 141 in rounds 1 and 6).

Mitch Wallis $445K (-$27.8K) AVE 95.3, BE 33 – He’s now scored two big tons in succession (110 and 124), racking up plenty of pill in the Dogs’ midfield. In just 8.9% of sides, he poses a great differential in your forward line. I know all about that, as I was touched up by 25 point at the hands of Andy B in our cash league this week and guess who one of his PODs were!

Coming down:
Greene $508K; BE 136 (not playing for two weeks)

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6 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – R18”

  1. Not sure there’s a BE that Danger won’t chase down, I think he looks at his BE at the beginning of the week and says ‘challenge accepted’ !

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  2. Yes Wallis is one too many, as the aforementioned trio struggle to post high scores in losses as their average in losses vary from 10 to 15 points below their average in wins.

    WB Avg in Losses:
    M Bontempelli: 102.25 from 8 (low of 81 and a high of 141, 6/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
    L Dahlhaus: 87.5 from 8 (low of 60 and a high of 124, 6/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
    J Macrae: 98.88 from 8 (low of 70 and a high of 123, 3/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

    Compared to their avg in Wins:
    M Bontempelli: 113.11 from 9 (low of 80 and a high of 140, 3/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)
    L Dahlhaus: 102.56 from 9 (low of 76 and a high of 145, 3/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
    J Macrae: 108.22 from 9 (low of 85 and a high of 124, 3/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

    I wouldn’t consider Wallis due to his unsustainable contested possession ratio and his tendency to handball rather than kick.

    Contested possession ratio in his 100+ games:
    RD9: 132 CPR: 76.92% (20/26)
    RD13: 114 CPR: 69.57% (16/23)
    RD17: 110 CPR: 64% (16/25)
    RD18: 124 CPR: 61.54% (16/26)

    Handball ratio: 65.35% (132/202)

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