The Fallen Premiums – Rd 12

Written by Chillo on June 12 2019

Enter Round 13, and cue the Imperial March in the background….

Fear of the number 13 is known as Triskaidekaphobia, and if you can correctly pronounce that on the first attempt, then I think you should find Supercoach fairly easy by comparison! From the moment the fixture was announced, all forward-thinking Supercoaches have known that this was going to be by far the trickiest of the bye rounds to negotiate. To really emphasise just how many points we all have riding the pine, here’s a not-so-shortlist of players missing from our teams this weekend:

Max GAWNMELruc$706,000129.450.8%
Brodie GRUNDYCOLruc$676,200125.854.9%
Lachie NEALEBRLmid$578,300123.843.0%
Jake LLOYDSYDdef$592,900117.645.9%
Shannon HURNWCEdef$599,700113.517.6%
Luke PARKERSYDmid$621,100111.62.0%
Mitch DUNCANGEEmid$587,500109.81.9%
Andrew GAFFWCEmid$564,600108.73.5%
Tim KELLYGEEmid/fwd$575,700108.348.4%
Clayton OLIVERMELmid$539,300106.824.9%
Adam TRELOARCOLmid$507,900104.912.5%
Elliott YEOWCEmid$583,400104.03.8%
Luke SHUEYWCEmid$549,900102.03.5%
Tom STEWARTGEEdef$496,800101.311.0%

All these guys are genuine premiums. Throw in popular picks such as Hore (47.5% ownership) and Heeney (36.7%), and it’s very clear that Round 13 is going to be about as much fun as a poke in the eye with a burnt stick.

The good news is that there are some prime trade targets this week coming off their bye, and they’re all set to play both the remaining games in this annual three week trial. Here are the Fallen Premiums!


Michael HURLEY (ESS), $455 100 (-$36.7K), avg 87, BE 86 – Hurley is an outstanding intercept defender when given licence to roam, but can get stuck with a lockdown role which affects his scoring. The effect is so pronounced that just looking through his scoring history gives you a great guide as to what his role was in each game that he played. Nevertheless, Mick is having another solid year as the Bombers’ backline marshall, and is coming off a season-high 132 against the Blues.

How can you possibly say no to this?

James SICILY (HAW), $491 600 (-$78.8K), avg 100, BE 94 – Sicily skated on the thin ice for about the millionth time in his relatively short career, but managed to escape suspension for his latest act of dimwittery against the Lions before the bye. After a red-hot start to the season, he has cooled off a little of late, but his price has probably bottomed out now. Sicily is a lock for a top 8 defender on talent and role alone, just be prepared to ride the rollercoaster of emotions that comes with being an owner!

Connor BLAKELY (FRE), $455 700 (-$6.1K), avg 87, BE 98 – Blakely was a pre-season favourite in anticipation of a midfield-oriented role at the Dockers, but a twinged hammy put paid to that. His return has been slow and steady, and scores of 88, 69 and 105 look promising. Blakely has averaged 89 and 85 in his past two seasons, and while we’re all crossing fingers, legs, everything for no further injury woes, a slight improvement on those numbers will make him a worthy member of your defence.

Backing it up….
Shannon Hurn, $600K, BE 160 *BYE*
Lachie Whitfield, $564K, BE 156 *injured*


Nathan FYFE (FRE), $606 100 (-$12.0K), avg 120, BE 90 – Fyfe is a captaincy option every week and has scored nine tons in 10 games, with his only miss being the game where he tried to tackle Josh Battle with his head. There’s not much else to add here – Fyfe is a modern day champion who is also a Supercoach beast, and is virtually a must-have at this stage of the season. Yes there are always injury concerns, but remember that as an upgrade option, Fyfe only has to get through the next 11 games to make his selection worthwhile.

I’ll let you write your own caption for this one…

Limbo land….
Rory Sloane, $536K, BE 181
Mitch Duncan, $588K, BE 155 *BYE*
Jack Macrae, $574K, BE 153
Josh Kelly, $660K, BE 148
Zach Merrett, $565K, BE 148
Elliott Yeo, $583K, BE 143


With both the big guns taking a break this week, obviously I advise against trading either of them out! This was actually going to be the week to grab swingman Rory Lobb (FRE), $483 600, avg 92 BE 63 and move him into the ruck, but the big galoot went and fractured his foot and is also sitting down for the time being.
Given that unfortunate timing, your only other viable options for some ruck coverage this week are either of the Power talls Justin Westhoff $362 200, avg 73, BE 65 or Scott Lycett $410 400, avg 85, BE 74. Clearly neither of these guys can command a starting spot in your team based on their numbers, but a bit of insurance against a future late out in the rucks is always a wise manoeuvre – if you can afford it.


Robbie GRAY (PTA), $405 900 (-$119.6K), avg 84, BE 31 – Absurdly cheap for a player of his reputation and ability, Gray should be near the top of your shopping list this week for a number of reasons. Let’s tick those boxes: Price tag. Since returning from a broken hand, Robbie has scored 89 and 122 playing in the midfield (italicised for emphasis). He comes with DPP status. And he plays seven of his eleven remaining games at the Adelaide Oval, where he has dominated over the course of his career to the tune of 107 points per game. Unfortunately, I have to mention FLAG! The imminent return from injury of midfield beasts Ollie and The Rock may see Gray return to the forward pocket, which equates to Supercoach death. Have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?

Forward thinking….
David Mundy, $554K, BE 198
Tim Kelly, $576K, BE 130 *BYE*


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23 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 12”

  1. Thanks Chillo.

    I was all over Blakely this week, ( to finish my backline) but I have gone a little cold.

    I still may find a spot for him,( maybe for B Smith next week) but at this stage I feel it would be better to keep Duursma at D6 and wait for Hurn or Whitfield to return and drop enough $ to complete my defence. My Defence is ..
    Lloyd,Williams, Sicily,H Andrews,B Smith, Duursma.

    I feel I have enough trades to take the punt on R Gray. At that price with DPP he is hard to ignore.With the success of Boak in the middle
    I’m hoping Kenny see’s the light and keeps playing Robbie there as well.

    Lastly I need to decide if I think ruck cover will be needed.

    This is the week to get on Lycett or even Westhoff for the brave.

    It sounds like Dixon had a great game in the SANFL and is not too far off. This could free up the Hoff to play back up on the wing again. Lots to think about anyway.

    Thanks again Chillo!


    1. Like your thinking FT. Looks/sounds like Dixon had a good game kicking a bag in his first game back. That may make Westhoff imminently attractive … but not this week!
      I too have gone a little cold on Blakely and would like to wait and assess what impact LTIs to Lobb and Pearce have on the Dockers overall structure and roles. Same applies to Ryan sadly who I would have been all over.
      Robbie has only ever disappointed me in the past (both times bringing him in for the back half of the season). I just can’t do it, especially with Wines and Rocky likely back this week and/or next.

      So, am likely to jump on the Sicily train for now, with TKelly and Hurn next up upon returns. Similar to you, am keeping Duursma and Hore at D6/7 until Whitfield is back and has price-dropped or Ryan’s output is proven undiminished. Nobody else is worth the risk for mine.


      1. I took your advice a couple weeks back @allsaints and bought Weller in. Has payed off and been well worth the risk at the moment. Can hopefully continue to produce!!!


        1. Well done. Solid pick who last year had a big second half too. Things are looking up. Maybe post-bye for me.
          Good luck!


          1. Just looked him up based on this conversation. Hmmmmmm…. will closely monitor his score this week for a possible post bye pick up. Could be a great rare gem.


  2. Thanks Chillo. No comment on the Fyfe photo, but “gee, he looks good!”

    Good luck all with the impending doom that is Rd13!


  3. I probably wouldn’t call Blakely a fallen premium. Especially since his BE is still higher than his average.
    Boak, Daniel & Johannisen might be worth a mention, and even Bont who is coming down (Cripps & Danger probably deserve a special comment even though they haven’t had their byes yet)


    1. Daniel, Johannisen and Boak are all good players, but your price has to fall to qualify as a Fallen Premium. Bont’s BE is still a bit too high, and Cripps and Danger may get a mention in future episodes…


  4. Awesome Chillo! Love the “do you want to dance with the devil in the pale moon light” quote!! How relevant for Mr Gray!! Just such a risk – is a clear gun if allowed to play middles- surely Rocky has to move forward yeah??


  5. Fantastic article as usual Chillo.

    Gray is a certainty for me this week and will likely be paired with 1 of Sicily/Ryan/Dunkley.

    Surprised by the lack of love for R Gray. A player of his calibre with dpp and forward eligibility for just under 410,000 and has the potential to comfortably avg 100+ or even close to 110 for the remainder of the season. At his price point even an avg of 90+ would be considered as a pass mark.

    Worst case scenario he suffers an injury or averages the high 70’s/low 80’s he can be sold to the likes of Dunkley/Danger/T Kelly etc or he could be held as a F7/M9 loop. Whilst there are concerns on how he is utilised in regards to receiving more fwd time than mid time he has still managed an avg of 94.21 between 2017-2018 inclusive of injury affected matches. Chillo also made note of his superb avg at AO and the Power’s remaining fixture and hopefully with the Power aiming for a top 8 spot he will be utilised more up the ground.

    A low risk/high reward move and very shocked that he has seemed to fly off most people’s radar.


    1. It’s all relevant Adam. His best scoring is when he spends most of his time in the mids not the forward pocket.

      That said depending on what people want / need in a forward, if they are struggling for trades then they don’t have the luxury to trade him out again.

      If they need points and he goes back to more forward pocket role and only is getting 80’s that may not be enough either.

      He’s also getting that little bit older and that bit more susceptible to injury.

      I think all of that comes into play when looking at him. He’s definitely the definition of risk v reward for me – particularly with low trades


      1. But his scoring in the forward line isn’t too shabby or poor for the requirement of a forward eligible player and at his price point his potential avg for the 2nd half of the season would likely outweigh what others around the same price range can dish out.

        Contingency plans must be developed such as grabbing a fwd/mid to possibly loop or switch covering a potential injury,etc for prospective owners.


        1. All trade no. dependent though! AND to win this comp, it’s not averages that does it – it’s total points! Add in the risk factor of his role and it makes him a risky prospect to at least 6 other guys that would get a stray before him.

          Don’t get me wrong, I get where you are coming from – if I had the luxury of spare trades (injuries are a killer) he would be a great F7 option.

          BUT – you have to remember people on here are playing / making choices in a variety of ways. Again pure definition of risk v reward!


            1. Will be very interesting to see how he performs for the remainder of the season. Similar case to my starting of R Sloane and Z Merrett as I can’t knock back his value and would rue not selecting him. I’ll have singular trades this week after executing 3 again and looking forward to the remainder of the season.

              Good luck for the remainder of your season.


              1. hey Adam

                i had a look at Robbie’s scoring this season, based on games when Wines, Boak and Rockliff played. Of course the sample size is appalling (Robbie’s only played 8 games), but the numbers still concern me:
                – when only 1 of Boak, Wines and Rocky also played (sample = 1): Robbie scored/averaged 122.
                – when two of them played (3 times): ave. = 95.33, and
                – when all three of the others played (4 times): ave. = 65.5

                That concerns me despite the sample being so small, with at least two of the other 3 likely to play out the remainder of the season. Of course it will depend on roles, but the other concern is that their collective averages fall as more of them play:
                when 2 of them play: they average 126.5 between them,
                when 3 of them play: they average 103.44 between them, and
                when all 4 play: they average 92.69 between them.

                if you stick with the plan then i wish you well. just not convinced and am trying to help someone out who helps everyone else on here when they ask, even when they dont’t 😉

                Cheers mate and good luck


                1. Thanks. Pretty set on the selection, likely won’t be swayed and if he turns out to be a poor selection then so be it.

                  With poor cash gen and limited trades I’d rather save the cash to potentially turn Goldy into Gawn or Duursma/Hore to S Hurn. Very happy with the rest of my selections which will hopefully compensate for potential poor finishes from my F5 and F6 (Hoff and Gray).

                  With our remaining fixture and possibility for a finals berth I think Gray will play a pivotal and integral part in hopefully securing a finals berth thus positively affecting his SC.


                  1. Also in regards to R Gray:

                    Below 20 disposals 3 time for an avg of 57 in comparison to the remainder above 20 for an avg of 99.8.

                    Since 2018:
                    Disposals Avg: 21.14
                    Sc avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 111.08 from 12 (low of 89 and a high of 145, 3/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)

                    Sc avg when disposals below 22: 78 from 16 (low of 37 and a high of 109, 14/16 below 100)


                    1. yep, with all of our above collective thoughts and info, this also points to his numbers are up and good when playing mids and poor when playing forward – he simply doesn’t get enough possies and CP’s etc and doesn’t kick enough goals to make up for the lack of possies …

                      That said, he is a very tempting $30K more from say Baker!!

                      I am also very tempted by AS’s man, Marshall – he looks value if continuing to play Ruck. That said, he has scored down when faced with strong rucks (Gawn, Grundy and Kreuzer) and up against all others. He faces Witts, S Martin and Goldy over the next 4 weeks and then also Gawn and Kreuzer again and maybe even Sauce / ROB as well … hmmmm


  6. Is anyone else looking at Sidebottom as a fallen premium after his bye.
    Fund are getting thin need value where I can get it.


    1. Not a bad call. Will benefit more than most from Beams being OUT and Sier IN to do the dirty work.

      Why not?! And good luck if you roll the dice



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