The final bye-weekend could be easily summarised with the following: Patrick Cripps may have appalled a few of you, however as a season-long holder in 2021, it was nice to see him with a vintage performance. Massimo D’Ambrosio is roughly translated to, “The Saints are pretenders.” Zak Butters was doing his best Coniglio impression, before the SC-Gods put a bounty on his head, and historic burnman Isaac Heeney at concurrent time was trying to bait non-owners with a magnificent performance. Geelong finally beat historic rivals (the-bye). Preuss scored 8 points less than Sub-Maurice Rioli Jr (no Preuss wasn’t a late-out), and while Macrae was phenomenal and Bontempelli was getting points for turnovers (shocking I know). Toby Greene was disappointing, scoring just the 7 goals, when he was required to score 13. And of course, there’s Sunday, Witts, Touk, Keays? Let’s just skip Sunday. With normal-programming having returned, let’s get to the Fallen-Premiums – Round 15!
+3 points – Bontempelli (effective sip of water).
DEFENDERS
He’s no James Sicily…
Christian Salem (MEL, 467.4k, (-$47.1k), 64 AVG, 88 BE) I remain confident, that if Salem didn’t get injured in round 1, that he was primed to be a smokey defensive-premium! Since returning from injury, Salem has found his feet scoring 83 points against the Swans, followed by 104 points against the Pies. With the bye under his belt, at a reasonable price, and apart of a Melbourne team that will be looking to fire-back at the competition. Salem for mine, is a superb D6 for any coaches looking to complete their teams.
Daniel Rich (BRL, 510.9k, (-$71.8k), 99.2 AVG, 63 BE) we discussed Rich a few weeks ago, and I continue to believe he has an elevated ceiling due to the return of Coleman. Tagged tightly by De Boer in round 11, minus that score from his total, since the return of Kiddy Coleman in round 6, Rich is averaging 110 points! Fresh-off the bye, Lions currently thriving, and Rich a crucial piece to the Lions success. Anyone seeking a defensive-premium shouldn’t look further.
Backing it up….
Tom Stewart, 584k, 210 BE
Luke McDonald, 485k, 171 BE
Jeremy McGovern, 405k, 164 BE *injured*
James Sicily, 630k, 157 BE
Dan Houston, 541k, 144 BE
Isaac Cumming, 511k, 141 BE
Midfielders
Christian Petracca (MEL, 487.3k, (-$118.9k), 106.7 AVG, 118 BE) while many have opted to trade the 2021 Norm Smith Medalist out last week. Petracca at sub-500k after a week off is mighty tempting at M8. Post-bye last season, Petracca lifted his game and averaged 119.6 points to close out the year. Hampered by illness and a knee-complaint this season, a week-off should have both the Dees and Petracca roaring to go. Coaches that can’t quite afford the upper-echelon of midfielders, Petracca presents an amazing option, unless you can wait for the man I’ll be discussing next.
Jack Steele (STK, 590.8k, (-$95k), 109.6 AVG, 199 BE) I know what you may thinking “So what the beautiful Jack Steele looks set to return? His BE is high and his shoulder may not be 100%.” And I must say, both are valid points. With a large break-even, this is more of a PSA for those that forgot the beautiful man is most likely set to play this week, and could easily find himself around 550k in two weeks time. Assuming Steele looks to be close to 100%. Some, like myself, may look at off-loading their worst-performing midfielder to Steele, others may be waiting to finish their teams with the handsome St Kilda captain. Regardless, Steele at a cut-price, with low-ownership is someone we need to all keep a close-eye on!
Patrick Dangerfield (GEE, 435.8k, (-$132k), 85.5 AVG, 123 BE) quote regarding Dangerfield’s availability last week: “He’s been training really well but we just don’t feel going to Perth this week justifies the interruption to his training for his preparation for the last 9 games of the season for him” – Chris Scott. If you’d like a simplified translation. “We are going to beat the Eagles regardless of his availability, he can come-in next week against proper opposition as he prepares for the run-home!” Dangerfield has had an unfortunately interrupted year thus far, he however, did showcase that massive ceiling we’ve all been accustomed to over the years against the Bombers in round 1. Returned post-bye last season (again, after an interrupted first-half of the year), and had three scores of 150+ points! Has Richmond this week (165 points last season), followed by North Melbourne and then of course a handful of games at Kardinia Park. He’s also a sneaky chance to be granted DPP in round 18, keep an eye out on his percentage spent forward. Now I’ll just quickly clarify, if you can loophole a Petracca, Boak, Merrett type with Dangerfield, this is the only situation in-which I believe Dangerfield offers a spectacular pick (assuming he isn’t granted FWD-DPP). Question is, are you brave enough to roll with Dangerfield?
Limbo land….
Jack Steele, 591k, 199 BE
Josh Kelly, 597k, 175 BE
Lachie Neale, 638k, 166 BE
Darcy Parish, 608k, 165 BE
Sam Walsh, 590k, 164 BE
rUCKS
Preuss just had to take English down with him didn’t he…
Luke Jackson (MEL, 381.2k, (-$8.6k), 82.8 AVG, 89 BE) with big Maxy on the pine for the next few weeks, Preuss achieving the holy trinity, (getting injured, suspended and concussing Tim English). Luke Jackson is suddenly a tempting choice for a fair few coaches. A serious chance to make a quick 100k, DPP flexibility, while also potentially offering premium-like scoring in a Melbourne team that needs to come out firing! No Majak Daw is also a positive and allows Jackson to be firmly a solo-ruck. Let it be of note, Jackson’s HO numbers are pretty poor (21.9% HO to advantage, ranked last of all the top 25 ruckman this season). But similar to Tim English, his scoring stream isn’t to come from HO’s. His fixture is a bit rough, Lions and Oscar McInerney, Adelaide and Reilly O’Brien, and Geelong with “Mr Restrictive” Rhys Stanley over the next three games. A tough run, but it’s time for Luke Jackson to step up. It should also be noted he could be a viable R3/F7 swing for added cover on the lines!
Oscar McInerney (BRL, 481.5k, (-$28.1k), 86.8 AVG, 134 BE) before you scroll down shaking your head, let it be of note, Big O averaged 110.6 points post-bye last season, after an eerily similar (albeit worse), slow first half of the season (78.2 point average). Regarding 2022, Darcy Fort’s inclusion into the side has seen McInerney sharing ruck-duties, which in-turn has effected his scoring potential. The good news however, is that with the return of Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher, the Lions opted to run Big O solo, and Fort was delegated to the medical-sub. Those have brought up the underwhelming 79 points that McInerney scored against Ryder and Marshall (who are restrictive ruckman), it should be of note the following players failed to ton against St Kilda. Max Gawn (82 points), Jarrod Witts (88 points), Toby Nankervis (91 points), Sean Darcy (72 points). With a much needed rest for the Lions, and the aforementioned Luke Jackson (who as we’ve discussed, isn’t a great tap-ruckman). This Thursday night, the Big O could make a sensational debut in the teams of those brave enough! Now, there is risk associated with the Big O, mainly in the form of an injury to the Lions talls resulting in Darcy Fort coming straight back-in. It’s a risk, but that’s the name of the game.
Timberrr….
Sean Darcy, 558k, 179 BE
Tom Hickey, 453k, 170 BE
Tim English, 605k, 166 BE *Preuss’d* – 1 week
Jarrod Witts, 591k, 163 BE
Reilly O’Brien, 544k, 145 BE
Toby Nankervis, 567k, 142 BE
FORWARDS
Only Isaac Heeney could start the season as well as he did, and still piss owners off.
Isaac Heeney (SYD, 453.1k, (-$1.4k), 102.3 AVG, 47 BE) considering where Heeney was price-wise and form-wise, to where he is, while also being slightly under his starting price, I don’t even need to justify his status as a Fallen-Premium, he just is one. To some, he’s the ultimate burn-man and #1 most wanted on their “never-again” lists. To others, he’s the All-Australian lock we saw in rounds one through seven. Coming off of the bye, Isaac Heeney was superb, his ground coverage was elite, he had good marking prowess, was magical in bursts and was back slotting goals. One thing of note in regards to Heeney’s ability to score large does eventuate from his goal-scoring. Averaging only 82.7 points in games where he’s failed to score, or only scored a single goal. While averaging 125.2 points in games where he’s slotted two or more. While I have ragged on him, I do truly like Heeney as an option for those strapped with cash and unable to get the likes of Stephen “3 votes”, Libba, Bont, or teammate Luke Parker.
Marcus Bontempelli (WBD, 575.3k, (-$76.4k), 111.6 AVG, 110 BE) FWD-eligibility, a healthy 76k discount from his starting price, and Champion Data as loving as ever. Might sound must-have on-paper, but a dodgy AC-joint had left coaches cautious when it comes to the Bont. However, fresh-off of the bye against GWS. Bontempelli was near-vintage, looked good on the eye-test and was also favorably scored via Champion Data (same old, same old). Even with a dodgy shoulder, Bontempelli is comfortably a top-3 forward, if he’s to be over any concerns with the shoulder? Well he’s F1 and easily an uber-premium. The Doggies are fighting for a top 8 finish, and I’d be expecting The Bont to be a big part of that push. Quite simply, if you can find the funds, there isn’t a better player to upgrade Butters too.
Forward thinking….
Tom J. Lynch, 540k, 186 BE
Josh Dunkley, 605k, 166 BE
Charlie Curnow, 446k, 146 BE
Adam Treloar, 505k, 128 BE
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Great read – thanks Abs.
Top notch Abs. Big effort coming off the bye, thanks for the great work in the article as always!
Any chance Petracca gets granted FWD status in the next update? He abs Danger would be amazing loophole options….
Any update on Butters?
Last reports coukd just be only 1 week!
I’m interested in this too, I heard the same but injury reports are a bit vague. I’m considering a hold and fielding Rosas (assuming he is named) for a week if that’s what it turns out to be.
Lord help me!!!, but I think I have decided to hold Butters as well – and instead upgrade M Rioli to Bont this week (using all the cash in my bank from a Bowey downgrade to D’Ambrosio).
It looks like Rosas will be back this week 🙂
Another “smallish forward” Joel Jeffrey is apparently now out for an extended period, and Rosas is not even listed on the GC injury list after being crook.
So with some injuries down back, and Jeffrey out – Stewy Dew will really need Rosas to play I reckon
Awesome stuff Abs but let’s face it, Jackson isn’t exactly a premium and faces tough opposition as solo ruck as you’ve said so what are people’s thoughts on 2 METER PETER – 50k cheaper, BE 32, averages 9pts/game less than Jackson and has a huge ceiling (albeit a shitty floor).
For Preuss owners with limited trades (me) and limited funds (me), Wright could very well be an option so what do we think:
TU – Jackson and Heeney (safer play, high ownership)
TD – Wright and Libba (more of a gamble, PODs!!)
Prior to the Saints game he was goalless 3 weeks running. He however, has a solid recent history at Marvel Stadium, and that’s where these larger scores have been coming from.
He has the Eagles this week which regardless of venue, you’d have to think he can score at least 75+. Then has Sydney and Lions at the MCG and Gabba, before returning to Marvel.
While Jackson has hard fixtures (Wright with worse in the short-term IMO), but he has the right role in a top team that could see him score like a premium. If Darcy Cameron can do it, you’d think Jackson could also.
Thanks Abs and you’re right, Jackson is a shed load better than Darcy so could very well do it.
If I assume Preuss is back next week, English the week after, then it’s really just a decision between having Libba or Heeney since Jackson/Wright are simply there to cover for Preuss this weekend (until the SC Gods strike again that is).
Cheers
I have a watch on English as I think Dogs listed him as 1-2 weeks on their injury list. They may take a very cautious approach.
Any love for Aaron Hall? 496k, down 76k from starting price?
love this article and the memes too
Thanks TT.
I mentioned him last week I believe. He has a huge ceiling that can match the likes of Sicily, Stewart and Sinclair. The obvious downside being his injury-profile, but considering the discount, there’s a lot of reward to counter the risk.
If you’ve got trades to spare or don’t mind taking a punt, I personally love the Hall pick.
Haha. Who doesn’t like a good superhero reference – thanks Abs.
Hahahah cheers BB!
OG Spiderman 1&2 is in GOAT superhero movie discussion.
Gees Preuss has mucked up all my plans!
Finally hit full premium- but in a few minutes of carnage he takes out English and himself and all my plans to upgrade him over the next week/2.
With his cash gen- would have been swapping him to Darcy or Witts in the fortnight.
Now, have 8 trades, his $440 and $80 in the bank and totally desperate.
Have thought about 2 metre Peter- surely him & Ess finish off year well, and big O, big effort after byes to finish season!
Have also considered trading Rioli to Clarke- but really not sure on his JS, then using second trade to Witts.
TU- take a donut in the rucks this week
TD- do the 2 trades, get Witts and suffer later on with no trades left for finals
Searching the bargain basement to replace Jeffrey with someone who could be my M9/F7 after I get through some carnage this week due to DeGoey/Butters and Preuss.
Some interesting names come up who all finished last year on fire but are high-risk and been disappointing so far in 22. I reckon one of these guys will fire but need some opinions on which one you think it will be…
TU: Stringer
TD; Wingard
Comment: T Thomas (providing he gets selected)
Interested in thoughts on these 3..
Hey mate, I owned Stringer and TT last season and Wingers is obviously apart of my mob.
I’ll touch on Wingard first. His scoring influx last season was due to being deployed on-ball with a vast amount of CBA’s. He’s playing a lot more forward this season, and can’t really see that changing with what S.M is going for.
Thomas was an absolute delight to watch last season. Was great around the contest and then would drift forward and score some nice goals. Has not looked up to it at all this year unfortunately, haven’t been following North too closely, but instincts say to avoid him for the time being.
And finally, my boy Stringer. He’s the pick of the bunch. Last season his scoring was defined by his CBA load (where he is a threat), the stoppages near the Bombers fwd-half, and then his amazing ability to drift forward, grab a mark and slot a goal. As he’s gaining fitness, Stringer will find himself in the same role. If the Bombers can compete on the run-home. No reason Stringer can’t push 95+.