The Fallen Premiums – Rd 18

Written by Chillo on July 25 2018

As previously postulated by the esteemed Father Dougal, PODs for the sake of PODs are a bad idea. Not picking good players for the sake of a POD is a bad idea. Picking a low scoring player for the sake of a POD is a bad idea. BUT….(there’s always a but)

You can salvage your whole season if you choose wisely, right now. The risk of a bad POD is mitigated by the small number of games remaining, and all you really need are one or two great games from a player with low ownership to make that seemingly dicey choice worthwhile. With that in mind, this week’s Fallen Premiums (mostly) focuses on players who, despite their exceptional recent form, have received low interest from the Supercoach community.

DEFENDERS

Heath SHAW (GWS), $ 420 900 (-$37.2K), average 90, BE 51 – Heater has gone from saviour to Supercoach pariah over the past couple of seasons. His form this year certainly hasn’t been up to those halcyon days of 2015/16, but he’s been solid enough and at this price he’s a feasible choice for a D6/D7 for these last five games. The Giants face Saints and the Blues in the next fortnight.

Alex WITHERDEN (BRL), $453 800 (-$25.1K), average 87, BE 53 – While the Melbourne-centric media salivates over Jaidyn Stephenson, fellow Rising Star nominee Witherden has been quietly going about his business up in Brisbane. Already the Lions’ designated delivery man after only 26 career games, Withers continues to impress and piled up a career-high 131 against the Crows last weekend. Averaging 110 in his last three, and only 4% ownership.

Backing it up…
Kade Simpson, $533K, BE 166
Jake Lloyd, $584K, BE 159

 MIDFIELDERS

Dustin MARTIN (RIC), $476 000 (-$180.4K), average 103, BE 42 – Dusty was here last week, and replied with 139 against the Saints. You know who he is, you know what he can do. Last chance, kids.

September is Tiger Time!

Dion PRESTIA (RIC), $453 700 (-$2.3K), average 90, BE 56 – The Tigers’ “Mr September” is back again, just in time for the big dance. Since he returned from a two month layoff with a calf injury, Prestia has compiled scores of 91, 99, 97 and 125. Dion averaged 111 in his last seven games of 2017, including his memorable finals campaign, and this year nobody owns him….nobody!

Taylor ADAMS (COL), $490 300 (-$100.7K), average 92, BE 68 – Some thoughtful commentators would call it “a season of two halves”. Taylor averaged 78 in his first seven games of 2018; he has averaged an outstanding 105 in his last seven, including a season-high 125 at his last start against the Roos. Adams averaged 108 as a defender last year, but is a midfielder this year, and in typical fashion he has been almost completely ignored in Supercoach. Highly recommended!

Limbo land…
Joel Selwood, $513K, BE 163
Josh P. Kennedy, $490K, BE 162
Scott Pendlebury, $559K, BE 147
Dayne Beams, $548K, BE 145

RUCK

Dawson SIMPSON (GWS), $425 200 (+$134.9K), average 95, BE 18 – Not a fallen premium, but I’m so happy for big Dawso that I decided he deserved a run in the Fallen Premiums. The Giants have been struggling in the ruck for most of the year, but Simpson has hit a hot streak lately and has posted back-to-back 120s in the past fortnight. His 3699 owners are no doubt over the moon, as are those who picked him up as a free agent in draft….

Just for information purposes….
Max Gawn, $641K, BE 169
Brodie Grundy, $617K, BE 166 

FORWARDS

Isaac HEENEY (SYD), $436 400 (-$99.9K), average 100, BE 76 – As one of the outstanding forwards of 2018 (in an admittedly mediocre field), Heeney is already in 50% of teams. But if you are somehow still Heeneyless, you really can’t afford to ignore him any longer. Isaac is as cheap now as he has been all season, and you can be sure that Horse will have the Swans primed for Friday night against the Bombers. Jump!

Goalz meanz Heenz

Sam MENEGOLA (GEE), $440 500 (-$111.3K), average 95, BE 77 – I know I said I wasn’t going to mention Menegola again this year, but seriously listen now. Sam bounced back to form with 114 against the Dees, and plays the last two games of the season at home, against the Dockers and Suns, in a Cats team that will likely have to win (and win big) to slip into the eight. You know what that means: it’s going to be a Cats fiesta to finish the season!

Forward thinking….
Luke Breust, $528K, BE 163
Justin Westhoff, $488K, BE 129

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10 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 18”

  1. I have two trades left. Sitting 810th and in the top 4 of 9/10 leagues.

    I want dusty. Mainly to negate the fact half my opponents have him and I am stuck with Curnow.

    midfield is
    Titch, Danger, J Kelly, Cripps, Coniglio, Neale, Parker, E Curnow.
    mid cover is Ahern/Phillips/Holman

    also have cover fwd and def.
    full premo since round 12.

    T/U – bring dusty in for Curnow and gain 20 points a week minimum.

    T/D – Hold the trade for injury

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    1. I think I’d hold mate. Still five rounds to go and you may need all the cover you can get. Especially if a ruck goes down.
      Ed Curnow’s recent drop in form will likely be followed by a return to the mean, ie all things being equal, he should return to his season’s average. Obviously no guarantees but probably the safer decision overall.
      I have two trades left too and kinda need Danger. With both Sicily AND Doedee out this week, I’ll have to field Mihocek with no loophole. He’s due a miserable 40-odd this week, especially against the Tigers.
      Am currently 1009th and would LOVE to finish top 1000, but am gonna hold onto my trades until an even worse situation pops up. It’s inevitable.

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      1. I don’t reckon Ed Curnow comes back up, in the context of his career he’s now returning to what he’s been for the majority of his time in the league. A breakout year like his is rare at his age and it’ll be even rarer if that form lasts. However, I still think the trade is a bit too risky with 2 trades left, you should hold it and see if you can make a trade in R22 or 23

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  2. Alright just for arguments sake, I’ve got a mate who is a complete nob and he’s tryna tell me that Ben Stratton is a top 5 defender. I’m convinced Jeremy McGovern is better

    T/U McGovern
    T/D Stratton is better

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    1. They’re two totally different types of player, and if I wanted a pure shutdown defender, I’d go for Stratton.
      Overall though, I’d rather have Gov

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    2. Stratton plays tall and small more than McGovern but McGovern is one of the best marks in the league. They are too different in role to really compare.

      I’d select McGovern for talent and Stratts for hairstyle.

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  3. 2 trades left, sitting on top of a cash league. I have held fyfe with rookies taking his spot each week. is it time to get rid of him?

    TU: Keep him and hope he is back for prelim week
    TD: Time to use that second last trade

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  4. I own Prestia! In draft. Another free agent steal! Him and Zaharakis as dropped injured players will go alright.

    Well done on grabbing Simpson!

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    1. I’d like to say it was all part of The Plan, but the truth is 211 got injured and there was no one else available!

      Great get on Prestia.

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