I’m going to defer the rabid ranting that usually fills this space each week, and instead offer my condolences and sympathies to the good people of Melbourne who read this article each week. You didn’t deserve this and I’m really sorry this has happened, and I know some of you will be affected more than others. The next six weeks are going to be tough…BUT then it will be mid-August and finals footy will be almost here! So stay home, stay healthy, and we’ll see you again real soon. And if you need someone to philosophise with/ramble semi-coherently toward/type rank obscenities at during this time, you can find me on the tweety @ChilloSCT.
Here are the Fallen Premiums!
Dan HOUSTON (PTA), $ 430 100 (-$54.7K), avg 81, BE 57 – You didn’t really think I was going to ignore Dynamite Dan this week, did you? Port spent the first month of this season trying to turn Houston into a midfielder. Even with the powderpuff schedule Port have had, it’s very fair to say that this move did not work as Dan averaged just shy of 70 points per game. But with Ollie Wines back in the Power engine room, Houston reverted to his regular duties on the halfback line and posted an eye-catching 117 for his long-suffering owners last weekend against the Lions. That effort included 21 disposals at 71% efficiency and seven rebounds 50s. Is this the sign of better things to come? Or does Houston still have a problem? (sorry)
Luke RYAN (FRE), $471 100 (-$49.3K), avg 86, BE 86 – Ryan is now in his fourth season and has spent a lot of those four seasons tempting Supercoaches. Is he a genuine premium defender? Or just another erratic pretender? Ryan’s four matches so far this year have done nothing to dispel that reputation, with his scores reading 123, 76, 79 and 109. The good news is that Freo are heading home soon and Luke averages 97 on his home patch, including nine tons in 22 games. Has shown a high ceiling and is worth considering if you haven’t got the dough to get to the likes of Lloyd or Haynes.
Just quickly – Rory Laird ($495 100, avg 92, BE 95) is worth a thought if you’re looking for a steady option at the back. The Crows are still playing that irritatingly slow chip-mark style of footy which is right in Laird’s wheelhouse.
Backing it up….
James Sicily, $515K, BE 142
Shannon Hurn, $500K, BE 137
Elliot YEO (WCE), $478 900 (-$105.5K), avg 84, BE 98 – It’s no secret that the Eagles have not enjoyed the hub to start this season, posting three consecutive losses before getting the better of the similarly struggling Swans last weekend. The Yeo-yeo’s form had mirrored that of his team, but watching him closely in his last match it looks like he might have decided to switch back on again. Elliot’s trademark ferocious attack on the footy was back, recording 12 contested possessions and nine clearances among his 121 points. Luke Shuey’s hamstring means Yeo will be firmly entrenched in the middle as the Eagles head back into friendlier territory in the west. Has averaged 108 in each of the previous two seasons and faces the cellar-dwelling Crows this weekend.
Josh KELLY (GWS), $588 500 (-$49.2K), avg 108, BE 100 – Hands up if you panicked and traded out Kelly after his calf injury caused him to miss round 3? Keep your hand raised if you’re now regretting it? Yep, me too. One of the smoothest movers in the league came back after the extended break looking a bit short of a run and consequently missed the following week with a calf niggle, setting off alarms bells for battle-shy owners. However Kelly came back the next week and posted 120 against the Pies and followed it up with 122 (30 possessions, 12 marks) in the win over the Hawks. Absolute class operator who can win the footy inside or out and is probably priced at his low point for the year. His last three season averages read 114, 114, 117, and despite all that he is at less than 12% ownership. What the hell are you waiting for?
Just quickly – Patrick Dangerfield ($556 600, avg 101, BE 80) has posted back-to-back tons after a slow start. I get the feeling Danger is just warming up and has started climbing the Supercoach scoring mountain. He won’t be this cheap again for a while!
Ben Cunnington, $563K, BE 205
Lachie Neale, $763K, BE 167
Jack Macrae, $590K, BE 161
Nat Fyfe, $671K, BE 153
Andrew Gaff, $597K, BE 152
Rowan MARSHALL (STK), $526 900 (-$71.8K), avg 98, BE 61 – After a massive breakout year in 2019 where he played every game and averaged 110, Marshall was reduced to mere mortal at the start of this year. A modest 81 ppg in his first three games, playing alongside Paddy Ryder in the dreaded dual ruck setup, left Marshall in the realms of Supercoach irrelevancy. Then coach Ratten decided that Ryder should be ‘managed’, and lo and behold – Rowan bounces back with scores of 117 and 128 in crushing victories for his Saints. There’s obviously big question marks here, but if you reckon Marshall can recapture his form of last season, he is well under-priced and has a friendly schedule in the next couple of weeks.
Todd Goldstein, $696K, BE 152
Lachie WHITFIELD (GWS), $441 200 (-$162.9K), avg 78, BE 78 – We’ve often wondered about this in the past, but in the case of Lachie Whitfield, it seems that getting hit really hard in the head is not beneficial for one’s ability to play footy. The GWS road runner was knocked flying early in round 3 against the Dogs and failed his concussion test. That 8 point effort leaves his price cycle this week and puts Whitfield’s break-even at a very manageable 78, but he now comes with a $160K discount on his starting price! For a guy who posted 150+ on three occasions last year alone, this is completely ridiculous and for the 51.1% of coaches who don’t yet have him in their forward line, the very definition of a no-brainer.
Bailey Smith, $460K, BE 171
Isaac Heeney, $495K, BE 145
Michael Walters, $586K, BE 136
Dustin Martin, $531K, BE 146
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12 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 6, 2020”
Great write up as usual Chillo ,
when can we get another week to blow 5 trades on. I really need it.:)
Chillo. Love your work. To answer your question about what are we waiting for re Jelly, for me its simple….his next injury.
Welcome aboard recruit Yeo !!!
Houston will burn again this week i held due to no choice but can see him scoring 70 this week thus me trading him to Haynes next week 😛
With the injuries at west coast who else besides yeo will enjoy more midfield / on ball time , with home ground advantage ( after they smash adelaide)?
Surely there is some cheapness across a few more heads ….
Tim Kelly was the other one to consider, about the same price as Yeo and should relish the shift back to Perth
Whitfield priced at around an 85 average is an absolute steal!
Even with his so far unassuming start to the year he is still averaging 96 when his injury game is taken out. Injury history always a worry but with extra trades this year can’t see much of a risk here. Will be joining my team this week.
With the form he’s in and a date with Bellchambers or Phillips, Goldy’s every chance to nudge that breakeven.
Phillips did well against grundy
Yeah, and Grundy scored 151!!!
Grundy runs like a midfielder, head to head on the tap down Phillips did well.
I like Grundy no doubt, bell chambers may need to find some GRUNT or Phillips may become a regular
Who to trade in