The Pre-Fallen Premiums – Rd 2, 2021

Written by Chillo on March 24 2021

To answer the popular question: no price changes this week, and no break-evens either. Normal service has officially resumed, and we’re back to the 3-game rolling average. Even better: we get 75,000 people at the G on Thursday night! In your face, COVID!

So we have no Fallen Premiums this week, but I’ve rolled out the wheel of fortune to try to predict who the players of interest are going to be in a couple of weeks. There’s plenty of value here and some decent alternatives to the uber premiums. We only have one week’s worth of data to formulate these predictions, so write these down in pencil rather than ink, but speculation is always fun….


Hunter CLARK (STK, $438 900) had one of those round 1 games that gets the POD spotters all fired up. 24 possessions, including 12 contested, is a fantastic return for a mid-priced defender. Maybe he’s actually the Zac Williams we were hoping for at this time last month? Projected Rd 3 BE: 55

Not sure about the shoelace, but Hunter can footy.

Steven MAY (MEL, $507 900) averaged 95 last season as one of the best key defenders in the game, including six tons in his last 7 games, and continued in similar fashion last weekend. As an added bonus he takes the majority of the kick-ins for the Dees, so the new rule that gives him an empty paddock to run into is basically a licence to print money. Projected Rd 3 BE: 63


Tim TARANTO (GWS, $453 700) is already reasonably popular at 28% ownership, but he’ll be scorching hot after he pumps out another ton against the Dockers this weekend. Timmy T is about $100K underpriced by my count and might just be good enough to end up at M7 or M8 for your midfield. Projected Rd 3 BE: 61

Andrew MCGRATH (ESS, $510 000) could actually improve on his 2020 breakout season in 2021. The top draft pick in 2016 tweaked an ankle just as he was peaking late last year, but he was in superb form in knocking up 133 against the Hawks last Saturday. The Power midfield will be a true acid test this week. Projected Rd 3 BE: 65

Rory SLOANE (ADE, $471 900) is an old Supercoach favourite of mine, so it warmed the heart to see him back to his old ways in the Crows’ massive upset win against the Cats. At 31 years of age he’ll be ignored by all and sundry, but look across town and see what Travis Boak is doing and you’ll soon realise that age is no barrier. Projected Rd 3 BE: 60

Thor-y Sloane! Yep, it’s Bad Pun Wednesday.

These are tumultuous times we live in, but you’ve probably heard that the best of the big men were not so big last week. There are going to be big cash losses for the likes of Gawn (proj rd 3 BE 212), Grundy (proj rd 3 BE 194), O’Brien (proj rd 3 BE 181) and NicNat (proj rd 3 BE 157) in a few weeks time, so start planning your upgrades now!


Dustin MARTIN (RIC, $541 600) ultimately dominated the opening game of the season for about the bazillionth time and recorded 158. You’ve probably got him already, but for those of you who don’t and are lumped with Danger instead….well, you don’t need me to tell you what to do here. Projected Rd 3 BE: 39

Isaac HEENEY (SYD, $454 500) played deep forward against the Lions, as expected. What wasn’t expected was that the Swans would run roughshod over Brisbane on their home turf, with Heeney bagging three majors in typically impressive fashion. Better still, Buddy returns this week which opens up more midfield opportunities for the Swans tyro, and the enhanced scoring that comes with it. Projected Rd 3 BE: 51


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9 thoughts on “The Pre-Fallen Premiums – Rd 2, 2021”

  1. Thanks for the great work Chillo!

    What are people’s thoughts on either S. May or H. Clark being top 8 defenders by year’s end?


    1. Steven Mays role is locked in.

      Think May has the higher chance of creeping in but if I were to bet; they both finish just outside.


    2. Sometimes I think we can place too much stock in whether a player will be top 8 at the end of the year. Especially when we might be waiting a long time for Whitfield to return to his best.

      That said, I think with Brad Crouch, Zac Jones and the general depth of St Kilda’s mids and defs, I’d be little concerned about Hunter Clark retaining an SC friendly role every week.


  2. Also struggling with the Rowell & Danger combo:

    T/U – Titchell & Ziebell (looks like a must have) – $252k bank
    T/D – Mills & Dunkley (swing Orazio FWD)

    Already have Dusty & Brayshaw who seem to be 2 popular trade in options


    1. I would be going Ziebell and Dunkley. Ziebell a must have IMO, especially with McDonald set to miss another couple of weeks. Dunkley looking like top two forward this year and underpriced compared to Titch and Mills. Retains the DPP then as well.


      1. With the proviso that Dunkley is extremely subject to his coaches’
        whims and the volume of mids the doggies have.
        And Mills is subject to impacts of Buddy and use of Heeney into the mids.

        But so much of this caper is about taking a chance / risk!!


      2. Dunkley was set up at half fwd quite a bit against Collingwood and the Dogs dominating possession and getting a lot of ball into their fwd 50 helped keep Dunkley around the action. Against better sides I feel he’ll have quiet spells if kept in this same role and will put up some average (for him) scores. Very similar to Butters from PTA I think.


        1. Dunkley had 14 CBAs, Libba and Bont 15, Macrae 17. Not bad considering Dunkley started on the bench



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