Total Pts vs Avg – MIDs & Rucks

(Written & Created By Macca)

The third instalment of these articles comparing total points verse averages, when deciding on your initial starting line-ups. Arguably one of the most difficult lines to select as there are many options across the clubs, and they usually cost you the most – so getting them right first up is potentially paramount to a successful year.

What are the key factors, aside from points and averages, that you will consider? Clearly, their role must be important. Player changes around them (trades etc – think Beams into that Pies midfield – will it make him or Treloar any better or worse, especially Treloar with a high average, BUT only 13 games and what must be dodgy hammies!) will also come into play.

If you’re a risk taker, you’ll also be looking at trying to find that elusive breakout (aka Champion Data favourite … excuse my sarcasm!) player. Who will be the next MacCrae, Cripps or Oliver? Are there any injuries to consider from the off season? And finally, can you afford the players … are there enough rookies across all lines to let you run that one extra mid or breakout player?

OK, total points first.

HIGHEST TOTAL POINTS
Name	Club	Position	Start Price	2018 Total	2018 Games	2018 Avg.	2017 Avg.	2016 Avg.
Mitchell, Tom	Hawks	M	$700,800	2,840	22	129.1	118.9	104.0
Cripps, Patrick	Blues	M	$648,200	2,627	22	119.4	97.7	107.6
Dangerfield, Patrick	Cats	F M	$660,500	2,555	21	121.7	136.4	131.8
Oliver, Clayton	Demons	M	$622,600	2,523	22	114.7	111.5	70.3
Neale, Lachie	Lions	M	$607,300	2,461	22	111.9	109.0	112.6
Macrae, Jack	Bulldogs	M	$689,700	2,414	19	127.1	106.9	94.1
Yeo, Elliot	Eagles	M	$585,500	2,373	22	107.9	102.1	75.2
Selwood, Joel	Cats	M	$570,500	2,312	22	105.1	102.2	111.5
Ward, Callan	Giants	M	$568,000	2,302	22	104.6	99.7	105.6
Coniglio, Stephen	Giants	M	$588,600	2,277	21	108.4	91.4	105.9
Sidebottom, Steele	Pies	M	$551,700	2,236	22	101.6	96.0	106.2
Heppell, Dyson	Bombers	M	$551,500	2,235	22	101.6	99.6
Westhoff, Justin	Power	F M	$549,500	2,227	22	101.2	87.2	85.2
Merrett, Zach	Bombers	M	$544,800	2,208	22	100.4	109.2	111.5
Menegola, Sam	Cats	F M	$543,100	2,201	22	100	100.4	99.3
Martin, Dustin	Tigers	M	$563,800	2,181	21	103.9	119.3	108.1

 

A couple extra listed here, from what I have done on the other lines which had double the number of positions in your side to review. Obviously because Titch is gone and Danger really should be in your forwards, if you are serious (from this list, a couple more of the duals sneak in with Menegola and the Hoff showing – exclude them too)!

For me, the top speak for themselves and are in most teams being posted on the Rate My Team threads. You can’t really go wrong with any of them as your starters I think … and it may just come down to questions of: Is Oliver’s shoulders up to it after surgery; will Macrae reproduce his stunning breakout (fuelled by CD favouritism!) form again or be impacted by the other Dogs mids; will Neale continue in the same vein at a new club or be impacted by potentially being the main tagger target?

Interestingly, in all teams and discussions, Geelong’s captain fantastic, Selwood, isn’t being mentioned and neither is Ward. Based on total points, you really wouldn’t be wrong having them either.

 

So, what do the total averages tell us and is there a ‘smoky’ in there?

HIGHEST AVERAGES
Name	Club	Position	Start Price	2018 Total	2018 Games	2018 Avg.	2017 Avg.	2016 Avg.
Mitchell, Tom	Hawks	M	$700,800	2,840	22	129.1	118.9	104.0
Macrae, Jack	Bulldogs	M	$689,700	2,414	19	127.1	106.9	94.1
Dangerfield, Patrick	Cats	F M	$660,500	2,555	21	121.7	136.4	131.8
Cripps, Patrick	Blues	M	$648,200	2,627	22	119.4	97.7	107.6
Oliver, Clayton	Demons	M	$622,600	2,523	22	114.7	111.5	70.3
Fyfe, Nat	Dockers	M	$618,100	1,708	15	113.9	108.8	105.4
Kelly, Joshua	Giants	M	$617,800	1,707	15	113.8	114.3	87.1
Neale, Lachie	Lions	M	$607,300	2,461	22	111.9	109.0	112.6
Treloar, Adam	Pies	M	$594,200	1,423	13	109.5	101.4	111.3
Coniglio, Stephen	Giants	M	$588,600	2,277	21	108.4	91.4	105.9
Gaff, Andrew	Eagles	M	$587,400	2,056	19	108.2	93.1	90.7
Yeo, Elliot	Eagles	M	$585,500	2,373	22	107.9	102.1	75.2
Ablett, Gary	Cats	M	$580,600	1,925	18	106.9	114.8	114.1
Duncan, Mitch	Cats	M	$576,500	2,124	20	106.2	109.8	92.3
Selwood, Joel	Cats	M	$570,500	2,312	22	105.1	102.2	111.5
Ward, Callan	Giants	M	$568,000	2,302	22	104.6	99.7	105.6
POTENTIAL BREAKOUT PLAYERS
Redden, Jack	Eagles	M	$517,400	2,097	22	95.3	79.7	64.1
Steele, Jack	Saints	M	$512,600	1,983	21	94.4	91.1	63.8
O’Meara, Jaeger	Hawks	M	$503,200	1,854	20	92.7	63.8	0.0
Brayshaw, Angus	Demons	M	$526,900	1,844	19	97.1	72.0	64.9
Miles, Anthony	Suns	M	$342,000	90	1	90	71	90

 

So, the dual players drop out from the total points scored, and Fyfe, Kelly, Treloar, Coniglio and Gaff appear – as does the little master!! Could Gaz give us one last season, playing all games and maintaining or improving last years average?? … Wouldn’t it be nice? OK, lets look at those five mentioned above, or more importantly, three of them. Fyfe, Kelly and Treloar. Great averages, but total points and games limited due to injuries … are they worth the risk? Treloar also has the added potential impact of Beams returning – so factor that in as well.

Coniglio may well be worth starting with Shiel moving on and Gaff should be top 10 … after he serves his suspension. So, who are you selecting?

Note also the listed and much discussed possible breakout players with O’Meara included after losing Titch and another season under his belt. Certainly their averages increasing each year lends itself to the possibility they could step up to become elite. Miles in that Suns midfield … umm no.

 

Finally, the Rucks to look at – and this looks like the easiest choice … right?

RUCKS

On face value, it would seem that it doesn’t matter which way you look at the big men of the AFL … there are only two stand out choices … so let’s get to it!

HIGHEST TOTAL POINTS
Name	Club	Position	Start Price	2018 Total	2018 Games	2018 Avg.	2017 Avg.	2016 Avg.
Grundy, Brodie	Pies	R	$708,200	2,870	22	130.5	97.3	95.7
Gawn, Max	Demons	R	$692,100	2,805	22	127.5	91.6	118.6
Martin, Stefan	Lions	R	$573,700	2,325	22	105.7	98.2	89.7
Goldstein, Todd	Roos	R	$548,000	2,221	22	101	94.8	108.1
Sinclair, Callum	Swans	R	$528,000	2,140	22	97.3	79.5	63.7
Nankervis, Toby	Tigers	R	$533,000	2,062	21	98.2	88.8	74.8

 

Basically, dollars permitting, and your planned tactics … maybe bye numbers considered, if things stay much the same in 2019 as they did in 2018, then you only have two choices … they scored 500 more points then the next best!! That’s a lot of points to give up! And to win this thing, as I have said before, it’s all about points!

There has been much mentioned of Preuss potentially impacting Gawn. Will you let that affect you? Are you worried about the new 6-6-6 rule at centre bounces? (if you have read Ben’s recent article, Pracky Match: Blues V Hawks, 22 Feb, then it is his opinion that the rule will affect nothing – so premium rucks, with strong mids, that hit to advantage, will be the way to go!)

Can the others lift themselves up a few hundred points across the year and lift their averages by 10 or more? Do they have the mids around them to help this? Do they offer more than just rucking for their stats?

Factor all of this in … and let’s look at the top averages and a couple of discussed breakouts …

HIGHEST AVERAGES
Name	Club	Position	Start Price	2018 Total	2018 Games	2018 Avg.	2017 Avg.	2016 Avg.
Grundy, Brodie	Pies	R	$708,200	2,870	22	130.5	97.3	95.7
Gawn, Max	Demons	R	$692,100	2,805	22	127.5	91.6	118.6
Martin, Stefan	Lions	R	$573,700	2,325	22	105.7	98.2	89.7
McEvoy, Ben	Hawks	R	$553,100	1,732	17	101.9	95.2	66.8
Goldstein, Todd	Roos	R	$548,000	2,221	22	101	94.8	108.1
Nankervis, Toby	Tigers	R	$533,000	2,062	21	98.2	89	75
POTENTIAL BREAKOUT PLAYERS
Witts, Jarrod	Suns	R	$480,900	1,949	22	88.6	94.3	50.0
Longer, Billy	Saints	R	$260,900	267	5	53.4	78	0

 

Hmm not a lot different is it? Although McEvoy replaces Sinclair – can he play all 22 games this year?

I think you will need to make your decisions based on your appetite for risk and whether you think it is better to have an extra mid (or potential breakout mid) as opposed to the two premium rucks. Ie you want cash on other lines. For me though, it’s about total points and trades – no point trading a ruck in later in the year if the top two from 2018 remain the top two … and it is hard to see why they won’t barring injury.

I’ll try a quick calculation (and am sure I will be corrected by those much better than me with these things and there is also some discussions on the site already along these lines):

If you choose Goldy over Gawn and use those dollars for say Miles at M6, and Goldy and Gawn continue to score the same, then I think the following applies: Over the first 10 rounds, you lose 27 points playing Goldy over Gawn. Thus, to even break even on the choice, Miles (or whoever) has to outscore the rookie you had at M6 (possibly Walsh) by at least 27 points per game to break even. More than this though, as you want that decision to net you greater points because, all things being equal, you will end up probably using another two trades getting Gawn in!! … (OK, shoot this bit down anyone, I’m sure it’s not that simple … but you get the idea!). In the end, it’s what makes the game interesting … and it will come down to taking risks and luck!! So good luck!!

On the above point, re trades, I can’t see either of the potential breakouts listed offering enough to be worth the trades – neither have midfields that will help their ruck scoring higher … But that’s just me!!

 

OK – that’s it from me … hopefully these articles have been useful and generated some great discussions! Good luck for your years, bring on JLT and please lets find some great rookies!!

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