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Anyone sacking their DEF “premiums”?
Crisp > Hall ?
Or give it another week? Don’t like to trade after 1 round.
Tu or Td
Wait a week IMO.
If you’re convinced that his “mid” role is not as effective as it should be, then definitely consider the trade. Although you’re potentially asking for trouble trading to Hall … potentially swapping one problem for another.
Personally, if I had Crisp, I’d consider trading for cash, and bringing in a Hewett / Sicily type of player.
If my team performs like this every week, I’ll be out of trades by round 12.
Holding off til next week, just need Nicki Martin at this stage.
My def was
Stewart Ryan short Chapman hinge mcartin
Gibcus de Koning
For 482 pts
Gonna leave them for now.
How many pts would Chappy have got the the fist of god
Think Chapman got around 23 points for that “fist of god” – as he went from around 57 points to 80.
Absolutely magnificent if he spotted his team mate, and punched the ball down to him (which is what I would have told the coach when he asked) 🙂
Absolute nightmare if he had punched it straight to a Adelaide player – who then kicked a goal (and Adelaide win by 5 points)!!!
Fortune favours the brave they reckon 🙂
Not wrong. I reckon most would have gone the safer option and punched it through and taken the draw.
Not bad composure for a seven game player.
I was regretting my decision to pick him and stopped checking his scores as he was scoring crap
I would have loved that….414 from Ryan Ridley Short Whitfield Gibcus and De Konning. Still managed 2342 somehow….deliberately went light down back. Got Hinge and McCartin on bench so no trades this week.
SDK to NMartin will be my only trade
If that’s your worst rookie to trade (SDK), then I’d hold for a week. Potentially other rookies will get dropped, or under-perform. We need warm bodies in the DEF line, and SDK will be back for R3.
Seriously considering axing one. Or I can wait for Round 3 teams and then burn 3 trades.
Options for berry?
Seems it was just a stinger. Should be right from what I’ve heard.
However if he isn’t.
Use DPP to grab rookies you missed in Nicki Martin / Hayes
Find funds to grab Lippa / Rowell / Xerri / Brodie / Mitch McGovern
I think Rowell is a must have, talking $74,400 for the upgrade. Berry has a ceiling but Rowell is WOW. If you are wrong am sure most will be in the same boat.
Agreed. If Berry is your only avenue to get to Rowell, then go for it (especially if you can do it with only 1 trade).
Not panicking about my back premos, I’ll give them another week to do better. Short did well, Crisp and Ridley should bounce back
Only trade I was thinking for this round would be Dixon to Hayes. I know it’s a sideways trade, but I’m thinking there’s way better JS now for Hayes and more money to make.
TU: Get Hayes in!
TD: Wait until Rd.3
Definitely wait. I’ve been burnt in the past going a week early on Rookies that looked like must haves.
Don’t learn that lesson the hard way lol.
Think I’m waiting on trades this week despite really wanting to out Crisp and Ridley.
Biggest focus for everyone this week should be picking up any rookies you missed who look the goods.
Save your trades, even with the extras, there will be covid/injury carnage multiple times this season I reckon.
nah – rookies after the second round … if you are going to trade this week, make corrective trades on the ones you think you got wrong (and that may not be good either – beware chasing last weeks points!)
OR, just for PBuzz – get Heeney back in again!!!!
l can get Heeney in for Berry by swinging Brodie in miss , if Berry misses but if Berry comes up and Zorko out it might be a wasted trade .
l have 216,000 to spend so many options .
With that much cash, I think there are better options than Heeney. He’s by no means a “must have”, or at the very least, you’ll be able to pick him up later when he has one of his 30-40 games. I’d focus on cash generation, either with rookies (Martin / Hayes) or mid-pricers (Rowell / Lipinski).
Unless already going for ioa, why would you trade anyone this week ?
In preparation to slaughter your first H2H opponent would be a good reason!
Thomas gets another crack at it then Wighty? 😉
Already got my first h2h opponent well covered Ninjas…my poor performers will bounce back and with 2342 already banked, imagine when they do !!!
He reminds of a good horse who missed the start of the Melbourne Cup WW….long way to go !!
Pity about his SC score because he’s a bloody good footballer. Just needs to be more willing to put his head where most people wouldn’t put their foot.
One – Is Darcy going to be playing next week
Two – Is Berry going to be playing next week
Three – Is Ward to Stephens a good option? Ward looked to be playing a lot of time down forward
Don’t really want to make any trades. Already have martin Rowell and hayes
Definitely wait a week on Ward, has a good role, had decent CBA’s, I’m certain he goes 60+ for the season.
Darcy, unsure, club seems to believe he’ll be fine to play.
Berry looks set to be fine. Was just a stinger from looks and was walking with team and moving alright post game.
Thanks. Good to hear that Darcy and berry should be back next round. Hopefully ward gets more on ball time
Bont to Rowell & Ward to Neale ?
Wait a round
Both Bont and Ward are injured and they are sure fire Premos based on history when healthy
You didn’t start either Rowell or Neale, so it’s definitely worth consideration (especially for this round, gives you room to work with trades in R3).
I have a big green rocketship with Boost next to my trade icon, what’s that all about? I scared if I push it that’ll activate something I don’t want to use just yet.
Due to Covid we have all been given ‘trade boosts.’
Essentially 5x throughout the season we can use 3 trades in a round as opposed to just the standard 2.
And four in a bye round !!
It’s ok, you can push it without activating it
No trades this round.
However Crisp and Mitchell are on notice.
Hall and Danger on the watch list.
Dangers was superb – but the big concern with him is Chris Scott – who can’t bloody help himself from wasting the on-ball beast down forward whenever Jeremy Cameron misses…
Has anyone got any thoughts on the following players?
Tom Green, 430k, scored 164
Jai Newcombe, 261k, scored 119
Luke McDonald (NM), 372k, scored 140
Obviously it’s just 1 round, and I’d certainly be waiting another round before considering any of these. But watching the games, each of them looked primed for a big season
I’ll be very interested watching McDonald next week. He’s a former premium def/mid and every chance of dpp come round 6.
Tom Green looked phenomenal on Saturday and appears set for a breakout year. Enormous contested and clearance work. Priced as a keeper however, so you’ve got to back him to do triple figures to stay at M8.
Newcombe was one I considered prior to a non-descript injury before Round 1, but he looked fine. Healthy MID and CBA role but use issues. Game was very open yesterday, so probably not an accurate picture of how he’ll go long term but could be interesting if Berry’s shoulder rules him out.
McDonald was great. 27 touches, pretty much all kicks, great intercept work. Was able to do all of that with Hall in the side and when McKay went down it was Ziebell who got stood accountably on Lewis. Role looks to be good and North backline set to be to under siege again in 2022.
All interesting picks with upside but definitely wait for a bigger sample size and watch them closely over the next weekend.
Of the 3, definitely McDonald, as he’ll likely get D/M status after R6, and should easily sit in the Top 6 defenders.
Green is too risky at that price, won’t make enough money to trade, and can’t see him averaging enough to be a MID keeper.
Newcomb would only be as a replacement for Berry (if his injury proves to be a problem … wait a week).
Keen to hear thoughts on Ryan – someone made an interesting point early days, that when Young plays, Ryan doesn’t score well. Seems validated, and seems like Jordan Clark has exacerbated that problem. Hold or trade Ryan?
I think Gunboat said he was on Rachele yesterday – that didn’t go well. Played like a witches hat yesterday and I’ll be interested to see the kick-ins breakdown.
Here I was thinking Crisp was my biggest conundrum until Sunday afternoon…
To everyone holding Crisp, what’s the hope there? He looked way out of his depth in the midfield (speed, agility, positioning) until the sting went out of the game.
Anyone considering Doc or Saad? What about Houston given Port’s injuries?
Doc looks the goods.
I’m going with Hewett who I’ve made post after post about but didn’t feel comfortable leaving 200k on the bench if I took.
But that big war chest is now a thing, especially if Berry underperforms or is injured.
Crisp obviously affected by Lipinski which we all missed but also Maynard out makes him more accountable elsewhere on the ground. My first thoughts watching him play was definitely Monday rage trade but I reckon he gets more mid time once Maynard is back. Whether or not he finishes top 6-10 defenders is another question so if I do trade him, it’ll be because I’m not convinced he will.
I have eye’s on Tom Green (430k) , George Hewitt($399) and Lipinski ($360). Was so close to having the latter 2 in the side but thought having Rowell, Cogs and Berry was a bit too much of mid price madness, seems like it’s a changing of the guard here, Greens a beast and Lipinski likely to hold down the main midfield role for a few years to come, They’re roles look as though they’ll be keepers by years end, even if they do fill an M7 and M8 spots.
Lipinski the best option here. Not guaranteed he ends up a MID keeper, but he should score well enough to get to $500k+, eventually trade him to a top-tier MID.
I’m getting Rowell. There’s keeping a level head and not trading, and then there’s cutting your nose off to spite your face.
Worth trading Ward to a cheap rookie who is likely to play soon/loophole option In order to trade Berry to Rowell??
At this early stage, Rowell definitely classifies as a “must have”, so yes, do it!!!
Too right Based..
I’m getting Rowell this week. If I wait, and he goes big again at that ownership. That’s pretty much my season shot. If ( Heaven forbid ) he goes down . We all go down together, and I’m only one trade lighter. The key is, who makes way ?
It’s Mc Gov or Brodie to Durdin,( I know I’m going early, but I already have Rachele , Martin and Hayes and Durdin has by far the best JS and scoring potential ) This is needed to finance Berry to Rowell. Berrys shoulder maybe also be ok, but theres’ really no other way to get to Rowell without dropping a Premo.
So Brodie or McGov ?
McGov is made of glass but he’s definitely best 22. I don’t own Xerri either so if he breaks he could become Xerri . I may do it anyway next week, as it likely frees up cash.
Brodie has the backing of the coach so far, but I’m still unsure what happens when Fyfe returns. His 65% time on ground on the weekend was a red flag, for not only his JS, but also his scoring. Freo had a few needing g extended bench time. Tucker and a young Henry managed with 70% and 71% . The good news is both Brayshaw (85%) and Serong ( 77%) were both up on previous seasons. If Fyfe comes back underdone he may need extra bench time too. I could be wrong on Brodie, and he dominates.I just still have some doubts.
I would rather back in Rowell.
Yeah I was just gonna do Ward to Macdonald and Berry up, but with it looking like Owens and Hough will be outs this week I might need to keep Ward for stability.
I’ve got Xerri and Brodie too, but really liked their games. Fingers crossed everyone keeps their spots and I can go with the original plan.
I want to be clear that I don’t think moving Ward is a fantastic idea but it’s probably the only real option available.
In this case, wait another week for more data.
Crisp to Houston/Saad or Sicily
Berry to Lipinski
Will probably wait a week but that doesn’t mean I won’t make the trades today then reverse them later on just to dream haha
Do you already have the seagull? I’m looking at Crisp to Lloyd, and Ryan to Doc as correction trades, and now rather than later.
No don’t have Lloyd yet, the crisp to Houston/Saad or Sicily was more so I had funds to upgrade Berry to Lipinski. So tempting since I only scored 2330 and don’t want to lose sight of top of 10K but I know I should “wait and see”
It was such an interesting round and like everyone, there are probably about 10 players I wish I had from it. Tough choices now with what we don’t have, in terms of blowing trades, not missing out on cash generation with the upside of lots of points on the ground, and building the list of end-game keepers.
The end game keepers are where my head’s at with premium defender corrections.
Gunboat makes a great point about enjoying watching your keepers run around every week (with Miller just about qualifying as his man crush). I’m fine with watching Crisp and Ryan tearing it up if I don’t own them, because if I had them I’d be nervous about another insipid effort like they both served up being only a week or two away. I prefer to back players who play the game in the right spirit because with them it is so much easier to get over their low scoring weeks, and not be dirty on them for costing you a tight league match-up.
This happens every year. Theres always a few under performers
( mostly defenders this week ) and a few lower priced guys that explode. Theres a fine line between holding firm on your Premos and jumping off someone. Lets take Neale from last year ,Neale clearly wasn’t right and although the Brisbane medicos were tight lipped you could see the way he was playing something wasn’t right. Those that jumped off before price change had a win those the held lost a heap of cash, and points. Of course the opposite can be true. Gawn started last year with 93 and heap jumped off. He averaged about 135 for the next 5 weeks Savaging those that jumped ship. Father D wrote a great article about reverting to the law of averages . Something like if you have a Premo that averages 100 and you get a 70 first up, it’s more than likely their low score for the year. This means they average 102 for the rest of the year. Basically if you trade them you have already suffered most likely the worst , only to forgo the better scores. The same can be done when chasing points. Just because someone comes out with a 160 doesn’t mean they’re going to keep it up. In fact it most likely means this was one of their best scores for the year ( that you missed ) and the rest of the year they may actually score less than their projected average.
Mostly what I’m trying to get at is correcting Premo’s can go horribly wrong , The replacement may, not only score less, but it also costs a trade. Something like say a Crisp to Houston trade is fraught with Danger. Houston has had purple patches in the past with a few weeks of great scores , only to be sent back to defence and resume trading in the 80’s. Crisp is usually a pretty solid performer ( that’s why you chose to start him I gather ) Unless you fear he’s injured or your sure the new game style is definitely going to affect him negatively, I would hold.
At minimum we should at least have another look at how Ryan and Crisp go before their price changes. They are both proud footballers and should bounce back.
“Reverting to the norm” – very sage advice on premiums. Chasing last week’s scores is fraught with danger ( no pun intended!)
Roger that FT, thanks mate. It’s not the score that bothers me with those two, I still managed to get 547 from my backs, and had Gibcus and SDK on the bench.
I don’t think there’s anything physically wrong with either player.
I think it’s a combination of role, new players in the mix, and the fact they are both senior leaders who look set to sacrifice their personal games to mentor those in their playing groups.
That’s all well and good when you look at them as a supporter of their clubs, but when it comes to SC, I much rather the hungry little seagull types. who shark everyone for chips
Get in Short,
Richmonds midfield is quite poor without the meatball. He should have plenty of chips to scavenge.
Started him. Backs are Crisp, Dawson, Ryan, Short, Hewett, P.McCartin (Gibcus, SDK).
Or, was that meant for Bucks?
Houston certainly carries risk. I wouldn’t be rushing in on a one game sample, especially on a player with a high variation.
They are a different team from a couple of years ago, and with a string of injuries in Round 1 and some role changes I am reasonably confident in him.
But thats definitely one guy I’d wait an extra week on.
TU – Hall
TD – Docherty
Looking to bring in Rachelle
TU – rookie correct Ward to rachelle as a Mid rookie (forward line is stacked
TD – trade a 500k disappointment premo defender to Hewett and trade Owes to Rachelle going deeper on mid rookies but having no loophole on that line
Made a few mistakes with late changes.
Berry ahead of Rowell, Baldwin ahead of Martin and McInerney ahead of Hewett.
Baldwin>Martin a fair corrective trade for this week, leaving room for possibly another next week?
TU: Do it
TD: Nah theyll both be yo-yos
Martin looked very good against strong Geelong
Doing this also. as we may need the three next weeks for other corrections. Baldwin near certain to be dropped for Stringer
Should i wait next round to trade?
TU: Trade Berry to Rowell
TD: leave to next round
All of us have done the rage trade before- only to regret due to player getting injured or previous player going on a spree.
Hold off this week- as I’ve been caught out where the player I bought in got injured and I stuffed 2 trades for no reason.
Alright then, I’ll hold those two slack arse premo defenders – and probably get a rage trade boil pop out the back of my neck when they tank again, and Doc and the Seagull cream it 🙂
Rowel = MUST HAVE
If Berry is your best avenue to get him with only 1 trade, then do it!!!
Tu- leave team as is and re assess next week
Td- ridley> hewitt and berry> lipinski or mcdonald
Currently got Crisp and Ryan in the backline, and not feeling great about either.
TU: Worth flipping one of them for Lloyd, Hall or even Doc this round
TD: hold tight for another round
Keen to bring in Lloyd, Hall or maybe even Doc but not sure about pulling the trigger
Pretty unanimous TDs there MPS, on the back of FT’s comments to me bitching on the same two.
I could give Crisp another look if they took him.out of the midfield, but Ryan? Is there an upside to being a witches hat in your natural position?
That’s what’s worrying me too…didn’t like the look of Ryan at all and hesitant to hold just for the sake of holding
Think I’ll be holding out on any trades this week if I can (as tempting as it might be).
Nic Martin is right at the top of my list and waiting to see what happens with Crisp and Berry. Hoping that both can bounce back and if Berry is fit to play then he could have a little more mid time with Zorko likely to miss.
Otherwise it’ll be time to activate Boost Mode for round 3, which will probably be:
Crisp > Sicily
Berry > Lipinski/Cripps
Long > Martin
I would consider Long to Martin this week to potentially save the Boost.
You only get 5 boosts and I will be trying to save mine for either an injury during upgrade season . This should keep my upgrade cadence so not to fall behind. Or, If there’s two promising rookies on the Bubble. Then I will boost to go 2 down 1up.
I’d hold off on Day until his bubble, Walshy. Coming back from an ankle injury, and has had a slow pre-season. There are murmurs of him playing in the midfield this year so definitely one to look out for – at an awkward price point though.
Blakey got a lot of the pill and rebounded well on the weekend but there are many cogs in that Swans half-back which makes me question if he can replicate that.
I’d hold off for now unless you’re desperate!
ive got to trade Salem and thought might swell go berry to Rowell while im at it
Don’t expect that from Blakey every week. Lloyd was out and he usually takes most of the kick ins.
so would you go day or Blakey?
Days a future star but I’m unsure on his role and he probably needs to be a keeper at that price.
You don’t need to spend all your money. You want the guy you bring in to make money or be a keeper.
I would look at Foley from WC $244K defender. Looks to have good role, he’s 22 so been in the system a while. Theres a heap of opportunity at WC so he could step up.
There’s also Richards from the Bulldogs. $261K. Looks to be back in favour with a HB role .
You could always back in my boy Chappy at $275K . He should get some confidence from last week .
Best of luck whatever you decide.
If you don’t have him already, I’d go Hewett. Berry > Rowell only requires $74k so Salem to Hewett accomodates for that. Otherwise, perhaps Chapman? Mid-price (and rookie) defender options are few and far between this year.
Sinn and Skinner will most likely both Debut for Port this week.
How bout going for someone like CJ
On CJ..He can score. I would be more worried about him breaking down. He had a very interrupted preseason. If you think his body can hold up he maybe a shout. He won’t have North kicking it to him every week though.
What are people’s thoughts on Treloar?
I watched the game and was a bit underwhelmed.
I am thinking about turning him in to Hewett via DeKoning DPP.
I have Rachelle, Martin and Hayes which I can put on field.
It will allow me to put another backline rookie on the bench who were not great.
I also want to turn Berry in to Lipinski.
My other concern is Ryan. But I think I will give him one more week.
T/u – trade Treloar and Berry
T/d – hold this week
Reckon hold of on de koning- just out one week- and not bad score for half game. Should get a game and make a little. Not many rookie backs as well.
I am keeping DeKoning.
Just moving him to the forward line so I can turn Treloar in to Hewett.
Adam Treloar – 16 kicks, 10 handballs, 5 marks, 2 goals, 457m gained, 4 clangers and the killer was 69% DE. for 79 points.
That’s always been treloars problem, even at pies he gets plenty of the pill but either kicks or handballs quickly which results in poor disposals. Will have better games but not worth the risk IMO
I might give him 1 more week.
As Forbucksake said below his DE is typically low.
I was referring more to that when underwhelmed than the amount of ball he gets.
But it was a tough game against the premiers so I will hold this week.
Treloar’s game was worthy of more than 79 pts.
In the same game: Bont – 13 kicks, 4 handballs, 7marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal, 380 gained, 3 clangers and 76% DE. for 105 points.
The SC gods have their favourites. It is in our interest to identify who they are.
This is the single biggest problem I have with supercoach.
But then again, they have toaward points for what the umpires give too.
Crisp (role change) To Doc
ZGuthrie to Hewett -no brainer hopefully . Dont normally get into blues.
Curnow to Martin – dont expect him to get any where near his rnd 1 score
Very early in the week but am i headed in the right direction ?
Back line -Doc Ridley Hewett Whitfield Hinge McCartin – Gibcus ,nuff
No Role change for Crisp same Midfield/Half back role. Did good in JLT also.
Zuthrie to Foley
Ward to Lmac
Curnow to Martin
I need to build my scoring and differentiate my team a bit.
Doing this now allows me to address the Crisp /Ridley / whitfield issues that are maybe’s next week
PS – Will be in Indo for a month in 2 mnths time and it will be hard to ignore the better half so willing to punt with these guys now and hope.
Main strategy is to gather enough cash to go Brodie -> Heeney after next week. Gross error of judgement on my behalf, needs to be fixed.
Martin has to come in, either Ward or Berry go (injury dependent)
Sinn and/or Skinner next week for Hinge etc
Why trade Brodie? The coach is backing him so has good JS.
If he’s getting 65% TOG this week, what is he going to get when Fyfe comes back?
Fyfe, Brayshaw, Serong, Mundy. Doesn’t leave much space.
Fyfe returning will change his role and perhaps scoring, Chillo, but won’t have anything to do with his TOG.
Historically had a poor tank, first game of the season, 30 plus degree heat and for a chunk of the 4th the play was on the other side of the ground, all repeat stoppages and no interchanges could be made.
Reasonable to expect Brodie plays 70-75% TOG and scores 75-80.
Heeney is definitely NOT a must-have early on. He’ll inevitably throw up a 30-40 somewhere in the next 5-6 weeks, and be at a reasonable price later. At $455k, he’s not currently AMAZING value.
Pretty happy with my MID/FOR rookie selections, for the most part:
Xerri, Martin, Hayes, C Macdonald, Gibcus, JHF, Daicos, Ward, Tsitas as a MID loop (with some potential to score later), and J Williams as a ruck loop.
After a lot of agonising, I selected left Rachele out of my squad in favour of some lower priced rookies + McGovern and Brodie.
In light of Rd 1 performances, I’m thinking about a couple of rookie trades;
Out: Hough (questionable long-term JS?) and Ward (ankle)
In: Mead and Rachele.
TU: Good idea.
TD: Too early to pull the trigger; hold your trades.
Great reading so far. can anybody put some light on Ridley and Steele poor scores?
Steele still 28 touches and 9 tackles but a whopping 9 clangers (70% DE) didn’t help. Probably a little down on his CP and clearance work as well, but not cause for concern LT.
On Ridley, very difficult to say. His role, on paper, was good. For most of the game he was played as the spare, Kelly on the smalls, even after Laverde went down and they had to re-shuffle. Little f*ckery at the end when he pushed up quite high along with Kelly. So role was fine, the problem was the Dons backline were under siege all day and set up incredibly poorly. Constant entries from the Cats and no team defense answer from the Dons.
Also doesn’t help Essendon’s backline is basically all half backs; just there to pad their stats, get 20+ touches and think they’re having an impact. Eating into his kick ins was always to be expected but they often leave him picking up defensive slack with how poor they are 1v1 and the rate at which they peel off – Heppell, McGrath, Hind, Redman all culptrits and even their ‘key defenders’ are pretty useless.
It’s a question of which one is worth “one more week”.
Ridley was particularly unimpressive. Without the kickins he’s been dependent on he’s merely yet another middle of the road defender in a team with a half dozen similar players as GD says. That’s why I wasn’t keen on him, but with so many options having limited preseasons (Hall, Dawson, Docherty) it seemed safer.
Crisp I think has lost his role from both ends. With Pendles and Daicos going back, and Lipinski and more centre time for De Goey he’s the one who got squeezed the most.
He just didn’t look like he knew where he was meant to be or what he was meant to do while Lipinski and Daicos thrived.
If it was round 10 and Ridley and Crisp were averaging 105 would you trade them after one poor score?
They are proven scorers who had a bad first round so stop jumping at shadows. It’s only two weeks ago they both had big scores in the last practice match and everyone was talking them up.
Crisp is a hold at this stage, but it’s worth remembering that he scored that ton in the preseason game after Lipinski was subbed out in the first quarter….
Fair and reasonable position to take on strategy Champ, but we aren’t making risk-adjusted decisions if we ‘believe’ history will repeat itself through blind faith.
Not so-much jumping at shadows: – when forecasting outcomes in a landscape of so many variables, it’s equally helpful to thrash out the discussion that has transpired. I reckon it has been solid. If you read it all carefully there’s decent analysis and reasonable prediction in there – and some great footy brains. Sure, there’s consensus that trading early is bad, but also that action this week could either blow up in your face or help you nail the price changes next week. It’s 50/50.
FT gives terrific example of Neale last year, and has Harbour Heroes put the writing on the wall for Crisp in my eyes? Probably, I think he is bang-on the money.
Yes, it’s the right call to give Crisp another week, but does it leave you with too much to do in three trades next week, if the shadows we’re jumping at do in fact turn out to be real problems?
Father Dougall makes compelling points on the faith we should place in the strength of historic numbers, but his pre-R1 discussion on potential break-outs also concedes that he didn’t factor reasons for historic numbers at various stages in player careers. In ensuing chat, even he agrees that some reasons are significant in hindsight, but difficult to work into the numbers.
It’s those reasons that are being fleshed out in the chat, and isn’t that what this whole site and trade chat is about? Using group consensus to test analyses and assumptions, challenge the norms and status quo, and help one another avoid mistakes that we should have seen coming?
If the outcome is “there’s nothing in it, hold on the trade”, surely that’s still worthwhile discussion?
WW, I don’t think it’s wrong to wait another week and then use a trade boost to resolve.
Other than pre Round 1, Round 3 is the most critical round and using every resource you have if unhappy with your team is legitimate.
But equally, trading out preselected premiums is obviously a big choice, and goes against a lot of people’s perceptions on the “best” ways to play supercoach, and the RULES (well, more like guidelines).
The way I see those rules is when the risk outweighs the return you make a move. Treat your trades like an investment.
Last year I copped a LOT of heat for publicly stating the need to trade out Neale, and then backing that decision against popular opinion. To be honest it was my single best trade of the season, despite the controversy it created.
I’m not as certain on either Ridley or Crisp yet. But both are giving me serious doubts, on top of doubts I already had in the preseason.
In investment terms there is also something called “opportunity cost” which often means that while you stick with a bad decision and lose money, you also lose out on the benefits of a right decision and making money instead. (No I’m not an investment banker and don’t need any hate on for that lol).
Last year Neale was definitely not just a double sided loss, but a quadruple sided loss – the loss of points and money, and the opportunity cost of money you could make by trading in a player massively outscoring his PTA.
Right now the data set on Ridley, Crisp, Steele, Gawn (to select 4 big guns and analyse them) isn’t big. It’s a sample size of 1.
If you choose other such underperforming players, this is the same situation.
The problem is that when you wait to a sample size of 2, then you’ve lost half your opportunity to fix it, and have limited resources to do so (in lack of trades). You’ve also sucked up half the opportunity cost in points and lost half the opportunity profit – you just haven’t lost the salary cap yet.
Looking at those players (ignoring who’s in my team and who isn’t):
Gawn – will not get so many frees against him this week, and therefore likely cracks 100 pretty easily. Yes, like we all forecast in the preseason he’s on a slow downward slide with less defined role and more job sharing. But he’s still going to be there or abouts a top 3 ruckman.
If you took him you were probably taking him as a safe option and prepared to wear a small cash loss to save a trade and have a reliable R1. Nothing has changed at all.
Steele: Equal 5th best on field in DT/Fantasy. 28 possessions, 12 contested, 5 marks and, at 7, plenty of tackles (which did worry us in the preseason). 2nd highest possession getter on ground. Just 9 clangers, which hurt his score badly. Based on that his “poor” game is more a Supercoach Scoring anomoly rather a poor onfield performance.
Crisp: 16 possessions, only 5 contested, with 1 mark compared to Lipinski’s 30, 13 and 5 marks makes for some pretty sobering reading.
Add Adams 25 possessions 16 contested, De Goey’s 27 possession and Daicos’ 27 possessions, and Noble Howe and Pendles getting another 68 between them as defenders and I wonder where all the possessions he needs to be able to maintain a 571k price are coming from.
He looks by far the biggest risk.
Ridley doesn’t look a whole heap better. I’m more willing to forgive a bad score in a team that gets wiped of the park but when you look at the stats, McGrath (29 possessions), Hind (23) and even Redman (20) all saw a LOT more of the ball than Ridley’s 17 possies.
Both Crisp and Ridley start to look like serious structural risks.
But, once again, that’s a sample size of one “real” game. How much you count the preseason data is up to you.
Really important to separate contact free practice matches and the real deal. Every year we get played for suckers on players playing bruise free footy, and players out of position.
Preseason matches are great for CONFIRMATION of previous knowledge but not really as useful for making new ideas as people might think.
Honestly it’s like comparing playing Monopoly to buying a house.
Ridley to Hall
Ward to N Martin via DPP
Leaves $106K in the bank.
I actually didn’t even realise Hall was playing week 1 – how silly of me.
T/U – Yep Hall much higher ceiling than Ridley. Go hard go early.
T/D – wait another week.
Comment – other
Sholl did OK 108 SC points for just over 60% TOG is he worth a look or JS going to be poor
Fact he wasn’t named Round 1 and came in as the med sub is a red flag.
Wait till he has a clearly defined role. Won’t be this year.
Should I look to got crisp and berry to hewett and Heeney or just wait
Thinking of trading Curnow to Dixon and then Ward to Rowell
TU- pull the trigger
TD- hold and wait for next week
Mid/Fwd rookies so far
JHF, daicos, stephans, ward, hough, owens, macdonald, rachele, durdin, martin, baldwin
With Darcy out I was mulling over either Oscar McInnerney or Witts but then Hayes’ 127 had me looping him so need to get an actual ruck in now. Have all the rookies except Martin but $300k in the bank so probably one of Berry, Ward or even Hinge to go out to bring in a ruck. So who needs to go?
14 team, 22 man rosters, who should I pick up?
TU: Lachlan Sholl
TD: Harry Morrison
depending on how long mcinerny is out for, dont think its anything serious, but just in case I have to trade I can only downgrade and already have hewett
shocked at how many people are already trading premos….Crisp and Steele in most traded out…don’t trade Rd 1 unless for injury or suspension, sc 101…its a game of holding your nerve
Trade after Rd2 when the SC prices change for me, if there are any stand out big $$$ lossess trade them and possibly get them back in cheaper if you need. Might have to take a hit in round 1 but thats OK by me.
T/U- Will Brodie
T/D- Tyson Stengle
Both B22 and capable of decent scoring and cash gen but don’t see the need to trade either of them in, Allin?
Neither are must haves. A lot of the midpricers less dynamic than expected so far.
Thanks Gunboat. Cheers, GG
Which defender to get around 430k?
Already got him
Ward to Brodie
T/U – Yes
T/D – No
Hi everyone – thoughts on who at this stage would have the better job security?
Brayshaw too Titch 5 minutes before hawks bounced the ball hurt alot. Shoulda just went my gut after having Andy all pre season. Would love to get Brayshaw in somehow but it’s just not possible so I’ll have too grab him at the byes like 80% of the comp will. He’s a jet
Sorry if I put you off Brayshaw Mav. He had 85% TOG and his scoring really showed. He was awesome in a close game, and was scaled quite well as well.
If I knew his TOG was going up, I wouldn’t tried to talk you out of him 🙁
I also realised he only missed one game last year through injury as he was suspended the other game.
na all good, FT! Don’t blame you one bit I asked the question and always respect your opinion and appreciate ya taking the time too reply, i did agree with just about everything you said.. I musta had doubts myself or else I wouldn’t have asked the question in the first place. I’m sure Titch bounces back he had the stats it was just a scrappy game V north. I will grab Brayshaw down the track.
Still scored a solid enough 2300 with Titch, crisp and Whitfield all underperforming and Rachele and Hayes on the pine.
In the last moments on Saturday afternoon before the cats vs Essendon game I decided in changing Sicily to Ridley in the last minute before the rolling lockout But my uncoordination made me click on Heppell instead of Ridley and by chance heppel scored worst then Ridley. So I want to change. Now I don’t think I want Ridley now or even Sicily now.
So it’s a toss up between Hall and Docherty.
I would wait to make that trade until next week… traded Sicily out myself with the rumoured COVID scare… that was a mistake but I did bring in Hewett who looked good and scored well
Hall averaged something like 117 in the role last season. And stayed healthy due to low impact nature of the role.
You don’t know how points at Carlton will be redistributed when Walsh gets back. You know hall will score well and might be 100k underpriced
Made a mistake by picking Rayner as a POD- not sure whether to go…
Should I hold off? Scores don’t adjust till after 3- that’s correct isn’t it?
If you want a pod strengle. (He kicked a few)
If you don’t xerri. (just played a game)
But have to make the trade at completion of round 2 to beat price increases.
But what pts do you need you player in that position scoring? Can you see Rayner accomplishing this, or the other 2.
Was wondering where Chaos Theory got all of his updates and coaches quotes from?
Thats a real mystery even to those that work with him .
Theres rumours he works for the AFL . I personally think he has a chip inserted somewhere and he’s linked directly into the matrix.
Lmao thanks FT
When do the new dpp’s happen? Is it after round 5 or after round 6?
I think they’re announced and available for rounds 6, 12 & 18.
So, after round 5 (I think).
Whitfield I am watching you.Last weeks insipid performance and his score would have been 40 if not 4 kick ins. Aish perryman and Cummings all kick in and Whitfield one to two weeks from breaking in half .I might be wrong but I am starting to have second thoughts on whitfield
GWS is always a bugbear team to select players in. Between the levels of talent and the coaching decisions that could honestly be made by a enraged mongoose with Alzheimer’s we all hate to rely on their players in Supercoach.
meh we know his potential. Very contested game and he plays well when the game opens up more. patience he will come good
Don’t like making trades after round 1 – we do have extra trades this season though to cover for COVID uncertainty. 2314 is a reasonable start with a missed opportunity having Hayes on bench.
Only one I’m considering at this stage is Baldwin > Martin
Then Hayes on field he would need to come on for Brodie or Rachele (assuming he won’t kick 5 in his 2nd game).
Baldwin > Martin will also allow me to make a MacDonald > JHF next week as well.
Thinking of jumping off the Luke Ryan train and going to Hewitt, banking 319k.
Backs : short, Whitfield, Hewitt, Chapman, bowey, Richards. ( sdk, mcartin )
Mids : parish, Brayshaw, Neale, Cripps, Rowell, j.clark, jhf,daicos, ( brodie, Naish, ward)
Rucks : Marshall, pruess. (Hayes )
Fwds : dunks, English, butters, cogs, xerri, gov, ( Martin, Hollands)
In the bank 319k
Unsure on brodie might hold for now and change when need be.
TU-Dixon to Martin this week
TD-Hold trades but might need to use boost next week
Martin played great and has job security with Langford out 8-10 weeks
Do it now and save your boost for another trade later
Any reason to not jump on for a stepping stone? His role, injury history, hold his spot, SC friendly game etc?
Any SC friendly relevant information would be much appreciated. Basically can he get near making 150k by round 6-8.
Who to captain I have vc on Macrae
Steele Miller Neale?
Neale for me with the options.
Captaincy Candidates out Thursday midday.
Always a great read GD. Look forward to them every round.
Who would you rather in your draft team
Omera thumps up
Matthew Kennedy thumbs down
TU Hayden Young
TD George Hewett
Thinking of switching things around what do you think
T/U – Trade Crisp, Owens, Steele for Houston, Lipinski, TGreen
T/D – leave team alone?
Love the possibilities and players incoming… but will still be the same price next week… So hold off for now.
All you need is Houston to do the shoulder half way through first, score 20 and bad decision.
Our one round we can wait… use it!
Why would the odds of a Houston shoulder injury be any different than Steele or Crisp?
That’s certainly a bold move to burn 3 trades and cook 2 “premos” after round 1.
I’ve just posted a write up of two of those guys up above and I think most likely one of them has to go.
However, I do like the 3 you’re looking to bring in.
Thoughts on getting stengle in the team for a couple weeks to generate cash, he’s projected to go up by 100k at rnd 3?
Thinking the same Matt with Stengle.
And Ward now been traded out 4.4% by coaches and Hawks have said he’s ok for this weekend, so many decisions!
Reckon I might trade in Stengle, get rid of Rayner- last minute bad decision- and keep Ward. Really happy with his practise matches- just had quiet first game, but should generate good cash. Contested beasts are hard to come by.
Got Martin, Hayes & Rachelle, so some things good.
TU trade out Ridley, Ward and Baldwin
TD trade in Lipinski, Hewitt and a 102k fwd ( like a Ned Long)
Instead of ward, it could be Hinge
Who to have on field this week?
Who to have on field this week?
Was about to ask the same thing. Surprised at results. We thinking Xerri will be more consistent?
Shared duties with Goldy and ended up in more ruck contests overall v my Hawks.
Looked solid in the contest and around ground (with CCJ under-performing) and with Goldy getting up in age, Xerri’s role in the ruck is all but locked in.
Should be good for a 70-80 average which is more than sufficient!
Feel a little crazy going for 2 sideways trades after Rd 1 but really didn’t like what I saw from Crisp (didn’t play anywhere near as much midfield as expected) and Ridley (scored badly even though the ball was permanently in his area). So:
Crisp/Ridley > Lloyd/Sicily
TU: Get it done son
TD: Wait a week then re-evaluate
If you are judging premium players by their one game every weekend. You’ll be trading every week.
Is it worth berry to Horne-Francis
T/U Wait a week
T/D Do the trade
Damn it I don’t like seeing that injury symbol next to Berry so hear me out.
IF Berry isn’t named to play this week I trade Gawn&Berry to English&Lipinski. Gawn is going to go down in value anyway unless he pulls out a huge score and English should post a decent score against the rucking abilities of Carlton. Plus I’ll have $100K left over. If Berry is named then i just roll the dice with no trades. Thoughts?
TU Hmmm seems like you’ve thought this through.
TD Honestly go to a doctor and get your head checked….
Berry will play.
Pretty simple. Don’t trade Gawn.
Cerra sidelined this weekend. Covid protocols.
are either hayes or martin field options this week?
after last weeks performance they both look like good field options
but you never know could drop a thirty next week
i prefer martin because hayes mostly played as a key forward on the weekend and martin got lots of touches
Martin now out due to Covid.
TU:- Jai Newcombe
TD:- Jade Gresham
How does the price projections work? Are they implemented at the start of round 3 or the end of round?
End of rd 3.
I’ve still got room in a league if anyone is interested…..(Hopefully you can still enter)
Finished in the top 500 last year so hopefully looking to repeat this year.
Must play out the whole season
why not, cheers 🙂
Am I a fool for not starting Neale?
T/U – little fool
T/D – big fool
T/U Mitch Owens -> Soligo
T/D Mitch Owens -> Meade
I need to Trade Out one of:
But why after one round ??
Looking to trade out (likely Ridley) to Hewett plus cash for an upgrade
Wait a week and see how Hewett fares with Walsh back and a solid midfield in the Doggies. Bit of a shame no Cerra to see how the midfield rotations look like at full strength.
Sidewaysing a Premium after only 1 week of data is never advised…
Bro, have some faith. You’ve picked these guys for a reason. You need a bigger sample size. I’ve got both of them too. We gotta hold for this week for sure. Re-assess next week if their roles aren’t what you expected and both produce another poor score.
Calling it here – top two trades in players in Rd 3 will be nic Martin and Sam Walsh
Apparently Martin out due to Covid…
Who to field this week
TU – Durdin
TD – Hayes
Who To Field up later today.
TU: Crisp to Skinner , Owens to Neale
TD: no trade
Have all high scoring rookies from round 1, only concern is no Neale. Downgrading Crisp is the only way I can get him in
Am in the same boat but feeling that we’ve unfortunately missed Neale for now – the only way I’d consider your above trade is if Crisp pops out another 60 and Neale goes 140 again.
Any word on Berry?
Insta trade is injured?
Playing mate cleared of injury
If both are still in this week, who’s the better on to play onfield?
Dusty out indefinitely, should I trade him for Heeney?
Taking a few days personal leave is not the same as out indefinitely
TU: Martin & McInerney to Heeney & Sicily
TD: Keep trades
Ok since Cerra got HS proto
TU trade for Cripps or other Mid
TD field rookie of either Ward,macdonald or soligo
I have picked Dusty.
TU – Wait a week…. (no trades)
TD – Downgrade Dusty to N.Martin (Playing either Martin or Hayes on field for week 3) Then upgrade Berry to Touk Miller.
N Martin out with covid
McInerney under an injury cloud after last week’s 55 and I really got him wrong swapping back n forth with Hewett.
Looking at a corrective trade to Hewett and guaranteed warm body this week.
You think Hewett could slot into D6 at least long term?
I heard he played a different role than in pre-season (didn’t see the game on the weekend), so it could be worth waiting to see if the inclusion of Lloyd helps.
Having said that, he has a knee sprain and given he’s a running machine, it doesn’t sound like an ideal scenario.
Any Swans fans with insight? Wingman are generally pretty volatile (Gaff, McCluggage etc.), so you could hold and wait for a big game to spike his price.
TU crisp and ward to Hewitt and lipinski
TD don’t do it, give then another week and save the trades until week 3
DEF: Lloyd, Crisp. Whitfield, Hewett, Gibcus, McCartin (Sinn, O’Driscoll)
MID: Macrae, Steele, Oliver, Neale, J.Berry, JHF, N.Daicos, Ward (D.Stephens, Hollands, C.MacDonald)
RUC: Gawn, Grundy (Dixon)
FWD: Dunkley, Butters. Cogs, Brodie, Rachele, Durdin (SDK, N.Martin)
$90,600 in the bank
Any advice or feedback is greatly appreciated!!
Good to see you around again.
Excellent side. Only move I can think of would potentially going Berry -> Rowell next week.
See how they both look this round. If Berry’s flat and Rowell again looks phenomenal it’s an easy fix on your end.
Should also look at getting Hayes from (STK)
T/U trade in hewett and lipinski for Whitfield and berry
What’s the difference between a pre season league in Supercoach and a normal one ?
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