With many of us now thinking of upgrading (if we can get past the injury curse), I thought a little article supplied by Zachary might be of value as a discussion point, given the many upgrade questions on the site since the end of the round. Let us know your thoughts.
Lessons when upgrading: Written by Zac
Hey everyone! Hope all is well, and we are ready to attack another Supercoach upgrading season this year.
Last year I feel that I learnt some valuable lessons with Supercoach. They aren’t complex and really seem quite obvious, yet I failed to realise it when
I was making my upgrades so thought it may come in handy. So, what are they?
Firstly, when upgrading we often pay close attention to the break-even of the player we are trading in as a gauge on when their cheapest price point will be. However, I’m suggesting we stop paying so much attention to premiums’ break evens. If you can afford the player, you want often its best to bring them in even if they have a 150+ break even. Why? Because it can cost you points. And for my strategy of playing for overall as important as money is, points are more important.
A prime example I have from last season is when I decided to wait for Stewart to drop to 400k as he had a 150 BE. The problem was he went and pumped out a 140 meaning I had to pay the same price I could have got him for the previous week and missed out on the points in the process!
This can also be applied to when we are deciding between two players. Often, we will decide to trade in the player with the lower break even. Why do we do this though? After you trade in a premium player as an upgrade you shouldn’t have the attention of trading them back out. Therefore, there future price shouldn’t matter, right?
The practical example I have of this is when I was deciding between Clayton Oliver and Hugh Greenwood. Greenwood (no premium scoring history) was coming off a 3-round average of 134 and had a very low breakeven. Oliver on the other had a high breakeven (despite still scoring well). We all know Clayton Oliver is the better Supercoach pick. Yet I chose Greenwood with the logic of getting Oliver cheaper later. Subsequently, Greenwood didn’t get a 100 in the next 5 games and Oliver averaged 152. We should be looking to upgrade to the best player available rather than focusing on the break-even of said player.
My second point is very similar to point #1 but when upgrading don’t ‘save’ money for future upgrades if you don’t plan to use this money by the week after. You are theoretically losing points by having money sitting in your bank. We should just get the best guy and worry about funds at a later round. Chances are a rookie will debut and you will be alright! No point saving money for a rainy day when the rain never comes!
The example here comes from when I chose Luke Shuey over Tom Mitchell to save 100k after the both came off their bye. I tried to save money for future rounds as I thought the 100k would help with future upgrades, but I was without a clear plan to use these funds. The choice of saving money cost me a lot of points as obviously Tom Mitchell outscored Shuey easily.
Through these 2 examples I lost so many points and I don’t want to know how many spots in the ranks! Moral of the story is just upgrade to the best player as a soon as you can afford them. After all points is what the rankings are decided by and we want to maximise points not money!
Hopefully you all found this a little bit useful and something to keep in mind come upgrading season. Good luck for the rest of 2021!
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