Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows
Another week of data, and more frantic fiddling with numbers. I wasted a fair amount of time this week thanks to a missing set of (), but am at least feeling good that I figured the problem out with enough time left to run some useful numbers.
The biggest thing I found was the breakevens from Supercoach do appear to take the money supply expansion price drops into account this season, and while they were not 100% accurate, they were close enough to be useful, at least last week. I’d like to see that trend keep up before I reach a firm conclusion, but so far so good. The predictions are more accurate the higher the player’s price, which I suspect is rounding error related but I don’t know for sure. Papley, for example, remains an outlier, but not by enough to stop projections for him being useful.
Last week I concluded the SC multiplier was about 0.9875 and the real one appears to be about 0.986. That 0.0015 difference means about a $900 difference for a player prices at $600,000. There is a good argument for trying to figure this out being a waste of my time given the small variances, but it interests me so what the heck. If nothing else I have hopes of improving my season price projection sheet for future years. And I don’t know yet if their SC projections are going to stay accurate(ish) or not.
Above is the actual sheet I used for this week. I calculated the price with no Multiplier (#) and the price with 0.9875 and also a R4 price using a multiplier based on the SC BE. I also compared the SC projected score R4 prices using that multiplier against the SC price gain/loss projection. They came out pretty close.
It looks like the SC multiplier for next week is about 0.986. If not, it is close to that. If I have time I’ll test that more, but I am seeing this as a big project for the off season right now. Hopefully my saving the projection and BE web pages each week will work and I’ll have the data to crunch before 2017. (Arrgh) I’m also thinking I will need to use high priced players for calculating as much as possible, since there is less issue with rounding. And if I pick fewer players who miss the week after I run their numbers, that will help too!
Next week I’ll talk about when to harvest cows, which is far from an exact science but I can at least give pointers on, and after that I’ll be back to making projections since some cows will be be wandering towards ripe.
Looking at the above, I’m not feeling it so useful, so here’s something perhaps more interesting. For this round (and this round only) every point above or below a player’s breakeven is worth about $443 in price at the start of next round.
As always, if you have anything you want me to look into, please say so in the comments.
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