(Written & Created By Adam)
Can the young gun from Brisbane make a leap into the Top6 Defenders?
SC 2018: 83.81 from 21
Gabba Avg: 84.8 from 10 (6/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
Interstate Avg: 89.9 from 10 (8/10 below 100)
Gabba Wins Avg: 85.5 from 2 (1/2 below 100)
Gabba Losses Avg: 84.63 from 8 (5/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
Wins Avg: 72.8 from 5 (4/5 below 100)
Losses Avg: 87.25 from 16 (11/16 below 100, 2/16 120+)
Pre Bye Avg: 83.83 from 12 (9/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Post Bye Avg: 83.78 from 9 (6/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 22.43
2018 SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 23: 103.11 from 9 (low of 66 and a high of 131, 3/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
2018 SC Avg when disposals below 23: 69.33 from 12 (low of 13 and a high of 92)
Kicks: 16
2018 SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 16: 101.27 from 11 (low of 77 and a high of 131, 5/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
2018 SC Avg when kicks below 16: 64.6 from 10 (low of 13 and a high of 92)
Handballs: 6.43
2018 SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 7: 89.67 from 12 (low of 64 and a high of 125, 8/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
2018 SC Avg when handballs below 7: 76 from 9 (low of 13 and a high of 131, 7/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
Marks: 7.24
2018 SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 8: 95.9 from 10 (low of 43 and a high of 131, 4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
2018 SC Avg when marks below 8: 72.82 from 11 (low of 13 and a high of 94)
Contested Possessions: 3.76
2018 SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 4: 95.75 from 12 (low of 66 and a high of 131, 7/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
2018 SC Avg when contested possessions below 4: 67.89 from 9 (low of 13 and a high of 105, 8/9 below 100)
Tackles: 1.62
2018 SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 2: 96.18 from 11 (low of 66 and a high of 131, 7/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
2018 SC Avg when tackles below 2: 70.2 from 10 (low of 13 and a high of 105, 8/10 below 100)
Clangers: 1.81
2018 SC Avg when clangers below 2: 87.18 from 11 (low of 13 and a high of 131, 7/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2018 SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 2: 80.1 from 10 (low of 42 and a high of 125, 8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Time on Ground%: 78.24%
2018 SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 79%: 87.6 from 15 (low of 43 and a high of 131, 11/15 below 100, 2/15 120+)
2018 SC Avg when time on ground below 79%: 74.33 from 6 (low of 13 and a high of 117, 4/6 below 100)
Disposal Efficiency: 78.6%
Contested Possession Rate: 19.36%
Observations:
In his 30-game career he has never scored 100 with less than 27 disposals.
14.45 avg differential between losses and wins in 2018.
30+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 23 and kicks equal/exceed 16.
Slightly under-priced due to an injury affected 13 in Round 23 as his average excluding the injury affected game was 87.35 from 20. Witherden will be one of the main beneficiaries if there are any changes to the scoring system due to the kick in rule change. He took 50.81% or 126/248 of Brisbane’s kick ins from Rd1 to RD22 and 41.27% of the time (52/126) he played on from the kick in.
The main deterrent is his dependence on amassing 27+ disposals to ensure a score over 100 but achieving an increase in other categories should compensate for below average disposal games and potentially help him convert 22-26 disposal games to 100+’s. If he can start converting the majority of his sub 80 scores (9/21 below 80) to 80+ or 100+ then he should push a 90-97 avg.
Verdict: Consider for D2-D4/Upgrade target
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he’s cheap with new kick in rule he could be a bargain!
Great work on all the stats on these write ups.
Should we look at Witherden as well as Harris Andrews?
Or do you think it should be a one or the other. I rate them both fairly highly at this point
By end of the year I think you will want to have Lloyd, Laird, Sicily, Whitfield who will likely be the top 4 scorer. I think Williams will be right up there too and it wouldn’t surprise me in Hurn/Simmo are gold this year too especially with the new kick in rule considering Hurn took 62% of them for WCE last season.
That said, one is definitely worth the shout to start off on the cheap – I’d opt for Witherden due to a more friendly SC game style at a cheaper price than Andrews who relied on a lot of spoils.
Really want to start with him at D3 however the round 13 bye is proving to be a real issue for me as i currently have Lloyd, Witherden, Yeo, Gawn, Grundy, Heeney and Danger which is 1-2 premos too many for that bye round i think.
Witherden may have to be sacrificed for this reason
Does that mean you are limited to only bringing in premo’s with byes in rounds 12 and 14 leading in to the byes then Zac?
Seems to me there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge before round 12. It’s definitely worth considering the byes as we set up our teams but there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge before them. I kinda think we can make adjustments as we go. You can do a lot of setting up for the byes in the 3 or 4 rounds before round 12. And who knows if all of those guys you mention will make it through unscathed?
Just my thoughts.