(Written & Created By Adam)
Stefan Martin prefers to Ruck alone……..
Premium history (Avg>95):
2014: 111.67 from 12
2015: 0.75 from 20
2017: 98.23 from 22
2018: 105.68 from 22
Avg VS Opponent:
Adel: 111.4 from 5 (low of 105 and a high of 120, 1/5 120+)
Carl: 119.5 from 4 (low of 104 and a high of 145, 1/4 120+)
Coll: 96.2 from 5 (low of 62 and a high of 135, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
Ess: 110.75 from 4 (low of 95 and a high of 126, 1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Freo: 117.5 from 4 (low of 95 and a high of 142, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
Geel: 93.75 from 4 (low of 57 and a high of 135, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
GC: 117.71 from 7 (low of 97 and a high of 133, 2/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)
GWS: 97.6 from 5 (low of 68 and a high of 128, 3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
Haw: 107.5 from 4 (low of 79 and a high of 142, 2/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
Melb: 87.5 from 4 (low of 63 and a high of 117, 3/4 below 100)
NM: 97.67 from 6 (low of 72 and a high of 133, 4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)
Port: 92.5 from 4 (low of 68 and a high of 154, 3/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Rich: 99 from 5 (low of 86 and a high of 131, 4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
StK: 122.67 from 3 (low of 111 and a high of 132, 2/3 120+)
Syd: 113.5 from 2 (low of 93 and a high of 134)
WC: 106.5 from 4 (low of 90 and a high of 140, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
WB: 112.17 from 6 (low of 88 and a high of 159, 2/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)
Avg at Venue:
Gabba: 105.05 from 38 (14/38 below 100, 12/38 120+)
2014: 115.17 from 6
2015: 111.7 from 10
2017: 102.73 from 11
2018: 95.82 from 11
Interstate: 105.31 from 35 (17/35 below 100, 8/35 120+)
2014: 108.17 from 6
2015: 108.11 from 9
2017: 93.3 from 10
2018: 113.8 from 10
Gabba Wins: 115.1 from 10 (2/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
2014: 131.5 from 2
2015: 118 from 3
2017: 115 from 3
2018: 94.5 from 2
Gabba Losses: 101.46 from 28 (12/28 below 100, 8/28 120+)
2014: 107 from 4
2015: 109 from 7
2017: 98.13 from 8
2018: 96.11 from 9
Wins: 119.47 from 19 (4/19 below 100, 9/19 120+)
2014: 125.4 from 5
2015: 124.75 from 4
2017: 107.6 from 5
2018: 121.2 from 5
Losses: 101.25 from 57 (28/57 below 100, 13/57 120+)
2014: 101.86 from 7
2015: 107.25 from 16
2017: 95.47 from 17
2018: 101.18 from 17
Pre Bye: 106.13 from 32 (14/32 below 100, 10/32 120+)
2014: 0 from 0
2015: 108.8 from 10
2017: 104.2 from 10
2018: 105.5 from 12
Post Bye: 105.57 from 44 (18/44 below 100, 12/44 120+)
2014: 111.67 from 12
2015: 112.7 from 10
2017: 93.25 from 12
2018: 105.9 from 10
2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 18.73
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 19: 111.69 from 13 (low of 79 and a high of 154, 4/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 19: 97 from 9 (low of 63 and a high of 142, 5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
Kicks: 8.82
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 9: 114.89 from 9 (low of 90 and a high of 154, 3/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 9: 99.31 from 13 (low of 63 and a high of 142, 6/13 below 100, 2/13 120+)
Handballs: 9.91
SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 10: 113.71 from 14 (low of 79 and a high of 154, 3/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)
SC Avg when handballs below 10: 91.63 from 8 (low of 63 and a high of 134, 6/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
Marks: 4.05
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 5: 111.9 from 10 (low of 82 and a high of 154, 3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 5: 100.5 from 12 (low of 63 and a high of 142, 6/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)
Contested Possessions: 9.82
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 117.92 from 13 (low of 90 and a high of 154, 2/13 below 100, 4/13 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 88 from 9 (low of 63 and a high of 133, 7/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
Tackles: 2.55
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 114.8 from 10 (low of 63 and a high of 154, 4/10 below 100, 5/10 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 3: 98.08 from 12 (low of 68 and a high of 114, 5/12 below 100)
Clangers: 3.09
SC Avg when clangers below 4: 103.06 from 16 (low of 63 and a high of 142, 6/16 below 100, 3/16 120+)
SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 4: 112.67 from 6 (low of 82 and a high of 154, 3/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
Hitouts: 33.91
SC Avg when hitouts equal/exceed 34: 114.8 from 10 (low of 63 and a high of 154, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
SC Avg when hitouts below 34: 98.08 from 12 (low of 68 and a high of 142, 6/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Hitouts to Advantage: 10.73
SC Avg when hitouts to advantage equal/exceed 11: 120.45 from 11 (low of 82 and a high of 154, 2/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
SC Avg when hitouts to advantage below 11: 90.91 from 11 (low of 63 and a high of 114, 7/11 below 100)
Time on Ground%: 88.68%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 89%: 109.42 from 12 (low of 63 and a high of 154, 4/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 89%: 101.2 from 10 (low of 72 and a high of 142, 5/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Premium career stat averages:
Disposals:
2014: 22.42
2015: 21.65
2017: 17.41
2018: 18.73
Kicks:
2014: 10.17
2015: 11.9
2017: 8.64
2018: 8.82
Handballs:
2014: 12.25
2015: 9.75
2017: 8.77
2018: 9.91
Marks:
2014: 5.75
2015: 6.4
2017: 4
2018: 4.05
Contested Possessions:
2014: 9.25
2015: 10
2017: 8.95
2018: 9.82
Tackles:
2014: 3.25
2015: 2
2017: 2.59
2018: 2.55
Clangers:
2014: 3.33
2015: 3.9
2017: 3.14
2018: 3.09
Hitouts:
2014: 28.17
2015: 32.5
2017: 35
2018: 33.91
Hitouts to Advantage:
2014: 6.92
2015: 8.1
2017: 10.5
2018: 10.73
HTA Rate%:
2014: 24.56%
2015: 24.92%
2017: 30%
2018: 31.68%
Time on Ground%:
2014: 88%
2015: 91.35%
2017: 88.32%
2018: 88.68%
Disposal Efficiency%:
2014: 64.1%
2015: 65.6%
2017: 67.4%
2018: 69.9%
Contested Possession Rate%:
2014: 41.57%
2015: 46.73%
2017: 53.68%
2018: 51.55%
Observations:
Averages 110+ against 8 teams (Adel, Carl, Ess, Freo, GC, StK, Syd, WB) with 7 pre-bye and 3 post bye.
Gabba wins avg of 115.1 from 10 with 2/10 below 100 and 4/10 120+ with 3/4 seasons exceeding 110+.
18.22 win/loss differential with 3/4 seasons exceeding a 120+ avg in wins with a 10+ differential between wins and losses in every season.
0.56 pre-bye/post bye differential.
25+ differential when contested possessions equal/exceed 10 and hitouts to advantage equal/exceed 11.
Increased his avg by approximately 7 points in 2018 largely thanks to recording a career high hitouts to advantage rate in 2018. Has the potential to average 110 as evident by 2 successive seasons in 2014 and 2015 of recording a 110+ avg but is largely dependent on his work around the ground as in both of those seasons he managed to average 20+ disposals. If he can maintain or increase his hitouts to advantage to rate whilst slightly improving his disposal average he could return to a 110+ avg. S Martin is an alternative to Grundy or Gawn that frees up approximately 150,000 which could be used to turn a mid-pricer into a premium but he might also require a trade if his average isn’t sufficient enough and a large differential still exists between him and Gawn/Grundy.
Verdict: Consider as R1-R2.
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Excellent Adam. He has to be considered with Brisbane likely on the improve and particularly in the engine room (more wins tends to +5 to 10 pts per player, per win).
That said, 2019 will be the fourth/fifth year since the vast majority of his best key stats and SC scores.
If he had the Rd14 (or even Rd12) bye I would strongly consider. Alas, he doesn’t, so it’s a NO from me at this point.
Thanks again.
Great Analysis Adam.
I had Martin & Gawn as rucks last year.
Was more than happy with Martin’s output but cost me in the finals as several opponents had Grundy who was getting another 30 to 40 points each week.
Same dilemma this year as see Martin as being a good scorer and is durable but he’s a step below Grundy and Gawn
Good write Adam, I considered him when I was thinking G+ Other, however he shares the bye with G+G, so I am with All Saints on that , No deal. May still consider him after JLT if Gawn and Grundy’s monster scores are affected by the new rucks rules and they share too much ruck time with others.
Had Martin last year mcmalaka ruined him with the pinch hitting =[