First Glance 2019 – RUCKs

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 12 2019

As always, we only need to choose two Ruckmen on the field for Supercoach. Yet these two positions will have the greatest influence over the rest of our starting line-ups. It’s basically the same question that we’re answering each year of taking a ‘set&forget’ policy or taking a chance on some mid-pricers.

Brodie Grundy (COL) $708k & Max Gawn (MEL) $692k – At first glance most team structures will begin here and be influenced from the ‘set & forget’ option of Grundy & Gawn. Apart from Ablett, Pendles & Danger, it’s been a struggle for anyone to back up a 120+avg season. This might just be the 2019 key question as with Ablett in the past…….start both or risk it?

 

Grundy and Gawn were in the Top3 overall scorers for the 2018 season and are now priced accordingly for 2019. By starting with both, you can be fairly certain that you’ll have two of the top Ruckmen for the season (even if they drop off slightly in output). If you’re taking a chance with one or two mid-pricers then you’re probably gambling that Grundy or Gawn might get hit early with injury (or Gawn dropping his output by playing with Preuss).

 

 

Todd Goldstein (NTH) $548k – Preuss is gone, although they didn’t play together in 2018……plus he had that monster season in 2015 with the 127avg. After an indifferent start to 2018, Goldy scored 12 tons in his last 14 games. Having said that, his highest score was 133……Grundy’s avg (more or less). So the $50k question is has Goldy got one more big year in him?

Billy Longer (STK) $261k – To be brutally honest, I’ve never really rated Longer. With Hickey off to the Eagles, Billy is now the #1 Ruck at the Saints. It’s his spot to lose. If you want to risk starting without Grundy and/or Gawn for any reason, then Longer might just be the best stepping stone option.

Which way are you leaning at the minute?   Set & Forget?  Mid-Pricers?

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28 thoughts on “First Glance 2019 – RUCKs”

  1. Those are the 4 I’ve been looking at aside from a very brief fling with Kreuzer and Mummy.

    Despite my better judgment not choosing the previous year’s #1 ruck as they never seem to back it up I do have Grundy as I have more concerns around Gawn.

    Was running Grundy and Goldy for most of the preseason so far but just switch Goldy to Longer allowing me to slot in Whitfield down back. I have a lot of question marks around ruck this year and just planning on having to adjust mid-season.

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    1. Mummy looks very promising but that suspension is the killer. if he wasn’t suspended he would be in at least half the sides.

      If there is a standout cheapie named for round 1 he has to be in contention at R2, or else Grundy/Mummy/Longer looks quite viable now Titch is down

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    1. I like to think so, but have been (semi-)convinced otherwise. All the signs are there for him to improve; age, # of games, draft-pick, # of (pre-)seasons etc. all point to him delivering an elite output in the next couple of years. Statistically, his window is wide open.

      I can’t however offer thoughts on his ability as a RUC, because I don’t know enough about the subtle nuances of the role/game. I’d love to hear the real footy-heads on SCT give their thoughts on why/why not he might make the jump …

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    2. Too small to ever make a huge impact. He was cut for the swans due to having the least potential on their list… A string of injuries would have made that a dumb move but long term I think they made the right choice

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  2. Thanks Schwarz.

    At this stage, I’m going Grundy and Longer. While I believe Grundy and Gawn will back it up, I actually think Grundy may improve(!!), I do have the odd question around Gawn (which I’ve mentioned numerous times before) and think there’s one question-mark too many. Them having the same bye is the sealer for me.

    To convince myself, I’ve actually looked at it another way:

    I can either:

    i. start Gawn as well and be forced to start an extra mid-rookie, because of the associated costs, for $749 500 (692 100 + 102 400), delivering 127.5 pts per week, assuming that this EXTRA rookie is my last chosen, and therefore worst-performing, he will never get on the field (and I had two average similar scores last year from my starters – Barry and Garlett), or

    ii. I can go with Longer ($260 900) with a view to upgrading him, start Miles ($342 000) in the MIDs too (upgrade or keeper) AND have an extra $191 600 in my pocket (which almost covers the costs of two trades). Further, you’d think these two will deliver a combined min. 150pts (70 + 80) on field every week. That’s a better aggregated ‘team score’ every week, equating to c.$11 250 ‘value’ each week (a total of $123 750 come the first bye). It also means that my worst performing on-field rookie each week (taking this approach) will be one better than the Gawn option, since I will require one less rookie on field every week as a result. Also, unless either of these two get injured/dropped, they will make me a lot more money (if I need to trade them) than the other approach. Finally, we will have a far better idea come the byes, who we wish our R2 to be for the back half of the season.

    The only other things to consider with this approach are:
    i. they will more realistically ave. 75 and 90 each week (165pts), making the argument even more emphatic, and
    ii. what to do with the spare $191 600!?!?

    Both decent conundrums to have to consider 😉

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  3. Just a question allsaints , when you are calculating the points scored each week, 75 plus 90 against maxys 127 wouldn’t you also add on the score of the lowest scoring rookie you have to field in place of Miles for the aggregate score?

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    1. I didn’t really articulate it properly Bruce, and thanks for pointing it out.

      The point I MEANT to make was that the extra $191 600 SHOULD add more points to your total onfield score than any last onfield rookie could to Option 1. You also need to subtract the difference between the last ave. rookie on either side. Another positive for Option 2.

      Hope that makes sense? It starts to get more complicated the further we consider the implications, but I’m certain it all works in favour of Option 2.

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  4. Why are people giving so much thought to Longer? With Marshall regularly playing and Lewis Pierce having a good stint at the end of the year I have little confidence in Longer scoring decently or even holding his position in the team long term.

    To add to this, the risk of longer being a bust is enormous. You cant trade him down and the gap from him to another usable ruck is huge. You’d have to have either a playing R3 (pierce could also make sense) or coverage with a ruck/fwd in the forward line.

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      1. HH

        I think what Duffer meant is, if your silly enough to start Longer at R2 then put Pierce at R3. Kinda makes sense.

        I’m really trying to afford the Grundie / Goldie combo and still keeping Miles at M6.

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  5. This probably isn’t going to be the most popular choice, but I’m not starting either of Gawn or Grundy. Or any premium ruck, for that matter. I’ll be starting the two most promising cheap options – one of whom will almost certainly be Mumford, assuming I can find a way to cover his absence for the first two rounds – and waiting to see who the top-2 rucks turn out to be this year.

    Now, right now most of you are probably screaming “But you NEED Grundy!!! You’re stuffed if you don’t start him!”. The thing is, I can remember heading into 2016, when Goldstein was supposed to be a must-have. And last year, when Kreuzer and Ryder were the only two rucks worth trusting. Maybe things really will be different this time. History says they probably won’t.

    I don’t know who the top rucks will be this year. Absent a crystal ball or a time machine, I can’t know that. None of us can. If I try and guess, I’m more than likely going to get it wrong. That will mean spending a couple of trades mid-season correcting my mistake. So, if I’m going to have to trade them out anyway, I might as well save some money upfront. So long as my chosen players over-perform relative to their starting price, I’ll come out ahead on a points-per-dollar-spent basis. And since total points = points-per-dollar-spent x dollars-spent, that can only be a good thing.

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  6. Grundy is a lock for me. I think Gawn is slightly overpriced mainly due to the uncertainty of Pruess’s role.

    I don’t like any of the mid pricers with the exception of Mumford.

    Rookies look promising. Sweet, Fort & Clarke. If 2 of these are named I will pick both. If only 1 is named, I’ll probably go with Mumford at R2. If no rookie rucks are named, I likely cough up the $ for Gawn.

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    1. Would go Nank ahead of Witts, but Nank just doesn’t rack up disposals like Grundy or get enough hitouts to advantage like Gawn

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  7. Long time reader, first time poster. Grundy/Gawn hasn’t left my pre season side yet. Lot of pre season to come and I’d really like to drop Gawn down for someone cheaper for structure. I feel with titch out it almost solidifies gawn and grundy personally as i wont be picking many if any uber priced mids to start with. There are some really nice priced mids to start with this year.

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    1. Same here, also loving that a potential 130pt player is a pod. If he goes bad use a ‘corrective’trade, but he will smash it and everyone else will struggle to upgrade to him with the carnage thru the season. I’m hoping.

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  8. Last pre season after buckley confirmed cox had cemented his spot in the 22, everyone was worried about the impact this would have on grundy. Grundy became a huge pod and dominated the season. Gawn is a generational player he is a beast and nothing but injury will stop him, people are silly if they think preuss will effect his output. At this stage preuss isnt even in there best team.

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    1. Grundy is a rare case where he doesn’t get his points by dominating the hit-outs, he acts as an extra midfielder almost. He scores well off of getting lots of contested possessions and clearances.

      Gawn on the other hand scores well by absolutely annihilating the other ruckman and getting a lot of hitouts, and that’s something that can be easily taken away by a pinch hitter or second ruck like Preuss. Just look at how Preuss destroyed Goldy’s scores when they played together.

      I personally don’t think Preuss should be getting games at Melbourne, but it is a legitimate concern that he might.

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      1. Is it also a factor that Gawn is the face of Melbourne and they want him dominating? Preuss just let’s him rest up so he can get settled and nail those 30m goals.

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