Rather than throw statistics at you like I usually do in the preseason, today I am going to give you a JLT warning.
My warning is this: Beware ‘Groupthink’ and overrating JLT performances!
That’s right, Groupthink, the condition where a group of people arrive at a conclusion together and accept it as fact without any real thought. Needless to say conclusions made in this fashion are often poor! Just because everyone in a community says the same thing, that doesn’t always make it true!
Seasoned Supercoach players will be well aware of this condition but nobody is immune to it and it reaches a frenzied level during the JLT competition. Every season there are a group of guns and break-out contenders who are popular selections but one or two in particular capture the attention of the Supercoaches. Their names are bandied back and forth until they are eventually traded into a huge percentage of Supercoach squads. This is particularly evident if those players perform well in the preseason competition.
Just look at 2018. Many coaches who had not previously considered Michael Hibberd traded him in after hearing his name raised a lot during the JLT competition. At the same time, we all turned away from Grundy because it was accepted that Mason Cox would steal too many points from him. Those decisions were accepted as good ones by the wider community but soon proved to be rubbish.
Not that we should feel bad about Groupthink; we are programmed to find comfort in numbers. You know, the whole pack- or herd-mentality thing!
I generally don’t suggest you look at other Supercoach sites – I don’t condone infidelity – but just this once have a quick search of other Fantasy football communities and you’ll find each separate group of Supercoaches have their own over-hyped players. Mind you, that doesn’t always mean the hyped players are necessarily the wrong ones. If you look at 2017 there were a group of Supercoaches who were convinced that starting with discount ruckmen like Witts and Sandilands ahead of Max Gawn was a great idea. It worked and those coaches were way ahead of their competitors from the start of the season.
As JLT statistics appear online, you will see some crazy Groupthink going on as reactionary coaches jump on the top performers. I imagine we have all made a few changes since last Friday night!
But how do you avoid this trap? My personal preference is to make a checklist and stick to it.
THOMMO’S JLT CHECKLIST
- Choose your uber-premiums before reading the JLT statistics. As long as they play don’t change these selections.
- Stick to your guns! If you have a POD that you have researched and you are confident he will break-out, don’t let other people dissuade you.
- Don’t select PODs simply to be different or because other Supercoaches support you, only select a POD because they will be a top shelf premium or earn you heaps of cashola.
- Don’t worry if your guns play poorly in the preseason, only worry if they get injured or don’t play at all. See point 1!
- Use the preseason to see what role your mid-pricers play but don’t get wrapped up in their statistics. They will be frantically working to make the best 22 or break in to the midfield group so their stats will be inflated.
- Pay close attention to who is missing. Ignore mid-pricers who play well simply because their star teammates aren’t playing.
- Remember that team lists are expanded during the preseason which lowers Supercoach scores and gives teams a chance to experiment with extra ruckmen and kids who won’t appear in the regular season.
- Think logically. If a player has never shown decent Supercoach form, why will they suddenly perform better in 2019? I wish I had asked that question when I selected Mr H. Lumumba.
After JLT1 I have seen a surge of interest in players like Nic Newman, who has never scored consistent premium numbers, Brad Crouch, who has never played a full season and numerous other risky prospects on the basis of one preseason match. Some of these players will have a spike in 2019 but many won’t, so select JLT stars with caution.
Let us know in the comments which JLT hype players are the real deal and which are preseason traps…
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