Popular Picks and Trends – Mar 2019

Written by Chillo on March 19 2019

Back in January, shortly after Supercoach opened to all for the year, we had a quick glance at the wisdom of the masses when it came to selecting a starting squad of 30 for this season. Eight weeks and 18 JLT matches later, those who have been paying attention have a little more information upon which to base their choice of stock. Here’s a look at a team made up of the most popular picks* amongst all coaches, as of 8pm on March 18th:

Most popular picks, March 2019

Note: For salary and structural purposes, Jake Lloyd (29th overall) did not make the cut, and Bailey Scott (30th) and Darcy Fort (31st) were replaced by Fyfe (36th) and Bines (most popular loophole option at around 11% ownership), respectively.

So how does this compare to the January version of Popular Picks?

Most popular picks, January 2019

Surprisingly (for me anyway), there is quite a large degree of commonality between the two ‘teams’. Eighteen players appear in both teams, and of the 12 players that have been ‘dropped’, eight are rookies that are either injured or missed JLT selection. Other significant observations:

* Josh Kelly and Toby Greene are the most notable players to lose favour. Kelly’s unexplained absence during the JLT series hasn’t washed well with the punters, while Greene has effectively been replaced by the cheaper Darcy Moore, who impressed as the Pies designated kicker-inner during the pre-season.

* Despite all the hullaballoo about a mid-priced defence, the most popular backline has effectively maintained the status quo, with Brodie Smith (12th overall) the only change to the starting six.

* Brad Crouch and Tom Liberatore have both found their way into the midfield on the back of promising pre-season form, with recent injury woes presenting each player with a heavily discounted price tag.

* Most of the prominent rookies have predictably experienced a boost in popularity after solid showings in the JLT series, with Sam Walsh (1st), Will Setterfield (3rd) and Michael Gibbons (9th) all looking to be certain starters for the Blues in round 1.

* Patrick Dangerfield is still a clear premium favourite among coaches, although his rate of selection has somehow dropped about seven percentage points since the last update!

* Coaches as a whole remain thoroughly unconvinced about the premium options in the forwards, with Devon Smith (40th overall) the next most popular premium option on that line.

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25 thoughts on “Popular Picks and Trends – Mar 2019”

  1. I read a couple of articles that said that Whitfield was playing on the half forward flank. How will this affect his scoring, and is he a viable defender with options like Hurn, Sicily and Simpson who will definitely play defence?

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      1. I just found an AAP piece in the Northern Daily Leader, a Tamworth-based regional paper which has quotes … gulp!

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        1. The Whitfield talk is so annoying. Just today there has been an article about him learning from Greene and playing half forward. Then 5 hours later theres a herald sun article about how he will play at Half back alongside Williams as “dash brothers”.

          The backline in general can get stuffed i say. Lloyd is the only one im confident on and his not even in my team cause of his price!

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    1. That doesn’t correlate with Leon Cameron’s interview on SEN on 14/3. He said Whitfield will be attending the centre bounces.

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      1. I trust Leon Cameron much less than any coach when it comes to player injuries and returns. Why would positioning been any different? I read and article about how Whitfield is learning about his new half-forward role from Greene!!

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      2. Great… I think all we can confidently say about Whitfield at the moment is that he’ll be playing **somewhere**.

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  2. Great stuff Chillo. I find it both fascinating and reassuring in equal measure.

    I worry that Scrimshaw is still in so many teams tho’. While Clarko’s comments were apparently taken out of context, he will not stand for mediocrity and it seems Scrimshaw’s commitment to being a professional AFL footballer is still being questioned. Even if he is selected Rd1, he may well be Clarko’ed (dropped) before he’s generated any sort of cash. He’s likely a NO from me even if he is named for Rd1.

    Thanks again. Wonderfully summarised!

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  3. Issue 1: Are coach’s losing interest in Whitfield??? I dont see him in many teams.

    A lot of teams I see are going with one of the big two (Lloyd or Laird) then Williams and Smith, making only 3 defenders & rookies
    This can be achieveable because there are enough good rookies in the back line this year.

    Issue 2: The big problem is the forwards, very few decent rookie picks on this line, so it might be better to go 3 defenders and 4 premo fwds along with 2 onfield rookies.

    What do you think about these 2 issues??

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    1. Hey Murray, Whitfield is still the second most popular premo def, at just under 30% ownership. You are right about the rise of the midpricers though, all premium defenders have seen a slight fall in ownership since January.

      I agree with you about the structural issues this year, and thatโ€™s the way I intend to run with my team. Unless the teams throw up some surprises on Thursday night (and it wouldnโ€™t be the first time thatโ€™s happened), I think starting Setterfield any higher than F5 will prove to be a mistake.

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      1. I agree chilli, think I will start with 4premos in the forward line – Dangerfield, heeney, Dunkley and t Kelly

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    2. I dropped him after having him my first premo defender selected. The big problem is he’s had a poor JLT, his role seems uncertain, and there are too many others with the same bye who are either premos (eg Laird, maybe Shaw) and come in at a hefty discount (eg Williams, Smith).

      He’s not a bad pick, just that for the same structure there seem to be much better options.

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  4. Great stuff Chillo! Yep – to the comments above on Whitfield – it was noted he was going to play all over the field this year and his role is definitely not locked in as it wa last year – for that reason he exited my side – too much doubt around him I think?!

    Wonder how many teams will now be built based on this info here?? … just a minute, I need to revisit my side! *wink*!!

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  5. I really enjoy your threads Chillo, and this one doesn’t let you down at all.

    I am curious – I can see Duursma being popular, but wouldn’t he be popular in the DEF line, rather than the MID?

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    1. Thanks CO! Yep well spotted, but I was trying to fit as many top 30 picks in as possible. It seems a lot of people are loading up on def rookies this year, so I shifted X to the mids.

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  6. Just to add one final thing about Whitfield/Williams relationship, the article I remember (Cameron) was that they were going to share fwd/def (alternate) roles to make them a much more flexible combination.
    Thatโ€™s why I donโ€™t have either in my team.

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  7. Why was Fyfe put into the most popular team at the expense of Lloyd? It’s not like Lloyd is more expensive than Fyfe?

    TBH I haven’t seen many teams that even have Fyfe

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    1. Because Lloyd is a defender, and the team already had 8 of those. Ten in fact, but I shifted a couple of DPPs to other lines.
      Needed another premium mid, and Fyfe was next cab off the rank at 21%

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  8. I forsee a lot of burnt fingers early this year. I wish somebody was running a book on whether Scrimshaw, Clark, Constable, Burgess and Petruccelle will play the first 5 games, I’d be happy to risk a grand on that! Maybe two of them but even that’s shaky.

    Perhaps the absurd popularity of these players which, can only be based on rumour, innuendo, gutfeel, and a general lack of football knowledge, explains why so many people don’t win each year. Maybe this is the year for me ๐Ÿ™‚

    Thumbs down record for my comments is currently in the 30’s I can’t remember whether that was for the one saying Zac Merrett wasn’t an option or the one that said Darcy Moore was

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