So, Who’s Any Good At AFL SuperCoach?

allsaints is back with another CRACKING piece of analysis on the teams that produce the best SC players. Pull up a chair and grab a coffee because this goes deep! 

I’m not talking about us as SCTers, but rather the AFL clubs who tend to produce comparatively strong SuperCoach output on a consistent basis.  And then try to understand why that is.  We looked at this in the pre-season last year and there are the usual suspects (eg GWS excellent and RIC very poor), but there have been a few movers, the odd surprising, over the last 12 months.  Let’s take a closer look.

Ranked purely on SuperCoach ave. output, GWS and COL are way ahead of the pack.  Then GEE and PTA (newbie) round out the best four performers.  GCS are woeful, CAR and FRE were poor again and MEL nose-dived off the back of a poor 2019, despite consistent outputs from Gawn and Oliver.  Poor disposal numbers and a marked drop in effective disposals are the key reasons for this.

It gets a little more interesting when we look at SuperCoach pts vs onfield performance.  The following chart has ranked each team, by the positive/negative differential of their SC ladder rank vs the actual AFL ladder rank.  For example, PTA are ranked 6 places higher on the SC pts ladder than the AFL ladder; conversely RIC are ranked 8 places lower on the SC ladder vs actual ladder and despite having a 72.7 H&A win percentage, find their SC average less than half of the total SC pts pie (ave. = 1650).

WINNERS:         PTA, SYD, GWS and NTH

Losers: RIC, ESS, WCE and (surprisingly) BRL

So why is that? If we look at the key stats of all sides ranked by their relative SC performance, we can see that there is a definite positive correlation between good SC scores and the following key areas:

• Disposals (kicks and handballs), marks, goals (and assists), effective disposals, disposal efficiency (%) and marks inside50

No real surprises there.

But if we also try and better understand what is dragging RIC, ESS and WCE down, the common themes appear to be clearances (both centre clearances and at stoppages), contested possessions and effective disposals.

Let’s get into even more detail.  The following chart looks at each club’s numbers when it comes to identifying the SC gold on each club’s lists.  These numbers have been consistent for a while now.  We all want players who average 110+ (120+ ideally) and the following chart identifies those clubs that tend to offer those sorts of numbers.  There are 7 clubs who had three or more players average 100+ in 2019.  There were also 2 clubs who had none, though Titch may have something to say about that in 2020.

The coefficient I touched on last year, illustrates the SKEW in each team’s list’s average.  That is, the greater the variance from the team’s average output, the higher the coefficient.  For example, MEL have two outstanding SC scorers, but they also have some real SC spuds.  Conversely, HAW and PTA offer the least differential between their best and worst (eg PTA had decent SC-scoring rookies in 2019).

Before summarising this piece and the previous one on ‘Fixture Difficulty’, I promised I’d do a review of the new coaches who were appointed during the course of 2019 to see if there is anything else we might like to consider in 2020.  So let’s have a look.

Three new coaches were appointed during the 2019 season:

NTH: Shaw replaced Scott after Rd10

CAR: Teague replaced Bolton after Rd11

STK: Ratten replaced Richardson after Rd16

All three have gone on to be officially appointed Head Coach of their respective clubs, so it’s worth a look.

NTH under Shaw have gone on to record the best %age improvement of all three clubs and whilst minimal (only 2%) have also improved what was already a decent ave. SC output.

CAR under Teague have the best performance improvement (Win %age) of all three new appointments and we’ve also witnessed a significant increase in ave. SC scores for the Blues.

STK under Ratten have increased their very poor %age to something resembling respectability and we’ve also seen a significant upturn in SC output, given they have had the smallest increase in Win %age of the three clubs.

Personally, I think all three sides have done particularly well on the recruitment side in the off-season, both in the trade period and in the drafts and there should be further upside for all three clubs in 2020.  Particularly NTH, who under Shaw’s guidance have produced numbers that if they can replicate them in 2020 will ensure them a Finals berth.  STK traded their asses off and CAR can only improve from a promising start under Teague given the age and some exceptional quality on their list.

Given all these positive statistics, let’s now look at specific players, the respective winners and losers of these coaching appointments.

To take each club in turn …

NTH

Paul AHERN (DEF/MID), is loved in his new role off HB, strong and clean skills and looks set to retain the role in 2020.  He will be available at a 10% discount in 2020 (only played 7 games) and now has DPP status.  If he can retain his average of 81.4 (I think he can only improve), he’ll make a min. $30k while delivering decent SC points to any DEF line, while poor-performing premiums will be dropping significantly in price.  Unless I read anything to the contrary, I will likely be starting him in 2020.

Jack ZIEBELL (MID/FWD), spent significantly more time in MID after Shaw took the reins and his average consequently shot from 82.7 to 97.7 over the same period.  Not 100% convinced at this stage, but could be a decent POD in FWD lines.

CAR

Ed CURNOW (MID), benefited similarly to Ziebell, averaging 108.3 post-Bolton and will be priced at just a 90.8 average.  Not sure why I’m not convinced, maybe too many uncertainties around CAR’s midfield set-up in 2020, but I’m not at this stage.

STK

Dan HANNEBERY (MID) ave’d 106.3 under Ratts and is seen as a key cog in the Saints attacking chain and ball movement.  He’ll be priced at just 76.8 ave. (20% discount for only 5 games in 2019), but how’s his body, let alone the ‘falling down the stairs’ incident?!?  Zero interruptions between now and Rd1 and I may just consider him.

Seb ROSS (MID), has already been discussed on our ‘AFL 2020 Discussion Thread’.  There are arguments to say that his burst at the end of 2019 is very different and a lot more positive than his similar output at the end of 2018.  I’ll leave this one open for discussion, but a 116.7 average (under Ratts) when he’ll be priced at only 97.8 looks sorely tempting.  What I will say is that one of Gresh (last 3) and Hanners (first 3) missed EVERY one of those 6 games.  Be warned.  Both also seemed to benefit under Ratts.  The samples (# of games) for these three players is also very small, making me less than confident to start any.

As regards those that suffered from an SC perspective after new coaches took over, the two that stand out are:

Ben CUNNINGTON (MID): ave. dropped from 111.3 (pre-Shaw) to just 94.3, and

Jack BILLINGS (MID only in 2020): ave. dropped from 97.3 (pre-Ratts) to just 84.7

AVOID!

Summary

In summary then, I’ve put together a composite chart on:

Relative SC performance

Relative strength at SC (v AFL performance)

Fixture difficulty (both First 6 games and pre-bye fixtures)

Likely improvement/fall in performance in 2020 (vs 2019). NB these are MY OWN predictions (please make your own!!)

This gives us overall comparative scores for both ‘first 6 games’ and ‘pre-bye fixtures’.

After I’ve picked my absolute bankers, I might use this to better inform decisions when it comes to picking those ‘hidden gems’.  I’ll leave it up to you.  Enjoy!

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