2020 AFL Fixture Analysis

Written by Motts on December 18 2019

Just when you thought allsaints had outdone himself, he pops in with another ripping piece of analysis on the 2020 fixture. * Mottsy stands *. * Mottsy applauds. *


While Geelong’s coach likes to whinge about their predicament when it comes to playing their Home Finals at the MCG, they do get to play there (on average) at least five times in the home & away season each and every year.  That’s significantly more than any other club, except for those who treat the MCG as their definitive home.

Enough.  It’s time to analyse the fixture difficulty for 2020.  I’ve based this on SportsBet’s odds for Minor Premiership, Top 4 and Top 8.  I am not sure I agree entirely; for example I think the Bombers will struggle in 2020 (with their current injury list), while North (significantly), StKilda, Carlton and Freo seem a little hard done by.  Anyway, based on their market on ladder predictions in 2020, the following is true:

  1. North, GWS and Freo have the easiest early fixture (first 6 games), while
  2. The Cats, StKilda and the Demons have the hardest start
  3. North, Blues, Dogs, Lions, Port and Freo have the easiest pre-bye draw, while
  4. The Swans, StKilda and the Cats have the hardest, closely followed by the Pies and Demons

These facts are all worth considering when picking your starting Premos and weighing up your last few rookie picks (remembering FD’s Laws that Cows tend to score better against weaker opponents).

The chart above is full of useless information and there is a key provided below each column or section, defining colour-coding and text fonts.  The above version is ranked by pre-byes fixture difficulty, from easiest to comparatively hardest.  A few other points:

  1. The # of home games is NOT what it says, but is the # of games they play at their respective home grounds (eg COL away at the ‘G qualifies as a HOME game for both sides)
  2. A club’s second home is what it says; ie NTH at Blundstone, HAW at UTAS, GEE at MCG etc., and
  3. As stated before, 2020* Exp’d (positions) are based on Sportsbet’s current market prices for the 2020 home & away season.

You can analyse the back half of the season with the above data and I will look to write something up about this prior to the byes (based on current ladder positions).

Something else that may prove useful in analysing fixtures is relative ground sizes of the venues to be used in 2020.  Here is a list from largest to smallest grounds for the 2020 AFL fixture.

So what do we think?

Do we agree with SportsBet’s ladder predictions for 2020?  What do we think of the fixture in general?  What (if any) implications will it have on your initial Premo selections?  Any other thoughts and comments are of course most welcome.

Next time, we’ll be looking at all AFL teams’ comparative ability to score well at SuperCoach relative to their on-field footy performance and results.




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2 thoughts on “2020 AFL Fixture Analysis”

  1. My major thing with the fixture is taggers and who is likely to get them

    *Assuming* DeBoar for the Giants and Jacobs for the Roos are fit
    I think the dogs having them round 3 and 4 might with Bont being the likely target?


    1. agreed GP.

      If you consider GWS, SYD and NTH as the traditional hard taggers, then:
      Bontempelli, Merrett(Shiel), Cripps and Neale ALL have tough opening six week fixtures.

      When looking at the front half of the season more broadly, you can add:
      Dangerfield and Dusty to the above list.

      Of all of them, Bontempelli is the only one who will be “DeBoer’d” twice before Rd14!



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