Cow Talk R10 –>11

Written by Father Dougal on May 26 2021

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

One week from the byes. Upgrade season is hard enough when everyone plays, soon we add in the whole “bye” thing. This is the last round to get ready.  Anyone you bring in now will play three of the next four rounds.

The main parts of bye planning are:

Field at least 18 each round

To have  at least 18 players on round 12 going into R12.

To have at least 18 players on round 13, once you have traded players you do not want who have the R13 bye to players who have already had the R12 bye.

To have at least 18 players on round 14, once you have traded players you do not want who have the R14 bye to players who have already had the R12 or R13 byes.

As I have mentioned because, trades are not just who you bring in, but who you send out. Outs are pretty easy for the second and third rounds; you out guys who are on their byes.  For R12, well, maybe don’t trade, or trade to set up future trades, or if you have R12 cows to harvest, and enough other R12 players, you can upgrade them to other R12 players for use in future rounds.

This means that for R12 and R13, you are bringing in R12 players. This assumes there are R12 players you do not have and want to bring in. This year, that appears to be a problem. The good players and cows are mostly playing R13 and R14. I mean, you can bring in R13 and R14 bye guys, if you are really light on one of those, but somehow I expect that to not be a common thing.

Anyways, lack of R12 guys. How to deal with that, well, sometimes we have to get a little, well, creative.

You’re not talking about inviting Mr. Clever in are you?

Mr. Clever is not our friend! You said so lots of times!

I know, and Mr. Clever is not our friend. He tends to get us into trouble. Too much Mr. Clever is not a good thing.

Wait, there is a maximum safe does or clever?

Well, no, not really. Um, look at it this way.  In order to win, you have to pick an option from the set of options that could lead to winning. If you pick options that can’t lead to winning, then you won’t win, by definition. Often we have a lot of options that can lead to winning and we have to pick the beset ones. Sometimes we end up in positions where a lot of options will lead to doing ok, but not actually winning. Often they are safe options, and won’t get criticism when we make them, but they also mean you are giving up on winning.

What if you are way far behind and won’t win no matter what?

Then you have to decide if you want to be safe or risk doing worse for a chance to do a lot better. But it is the same idea when it comes down to it. Do you try to win or try to lose by less?


Ok, say you are playing plain old five card draw poker, and your opponent had three of a kind showing.

Um, I think that isn’t how it works?

Ok, for purposes of my example, you can see his cards. And he has three of a kind.  Aces in fact. You have a 2 3 5 6 8, lots of different suits so no real chance at a flush. The only way you win, is if, firstly your opponent does not improve his hand, and secondly, if you throw away the 8 and draw a 4. In other words an inside straight.

Aren’t those like, very unlikely?

Yes, but that is better than throwing away three cards and hoping for either a four of a kind, or getting three of the same suit to get a flush. It is your best chance.

But what if the other guys gets four of a kind?

Then you lose, but you can’t affect that so you have to play as if he won’t improve his hand.

So, I do the low odds thing because it might work, even if it probably won’t?

Right. Now you could fold, and lose, but that is a decision to lose by less and give up on winning. You can’t win and fold.

So how does this apply to KFC Supercoach?

….KFC Supercoach? Since when do we add the KFC? We’re not getting paid to say……where did that pile of pumpkin seeds come from?

(attempts to look innocent)

Oh my. Well, fine. It applies because we are getting to the point of the season where if you are enough off the lead, you have to have some things go right in order to have a shot at winning. Maybe you fail, and then end up with a lower rank, or maybe you do well but not well enough. But, for example, say you need R12 players badly. And while you have cash, you need to be careful with it. And you have the obvious good R12 players, other than Cam Guthrie who got hurt last round.  You want to see him play before getting him in, and he could be a late out. Oh, and your cows to trade out all play in the first game, so that late out would hurt. So, what do you do?

…….invite in Mr. Clever to help us with our KFC Supercoach team?

Yeah.  You need someone you can get cheap who will score more than you are haying for, maybe a lot more. You also need some reason to think it could happen. So, there is this Tom Green guy. Only $440,700 and R12, and looks to have moved into the mids with a good recent average. He could end up going at a 110, maybe a 115+ average over the rest of the season!

The key word being “could” Not “will”, definitely not “will” just “could.”

Yeah. He has to go right. And Cammy-G needs to play and look ok and at the same time miss his BE so he is cheap R13. And, um, Jeremy Cameron also needs to have a bad game so you can get him cheap R13.  So then you get in three R12 bye guys, all of whom could end up scoring better than their cost.

And Cammy-G does not give up footy to play new age saxophone. 

Well, yes, technically also needed, if less of a risk.

So, this is the time to consider. Very carefully consider, taking risks. You know, clever, calculated risks

There’s a fine line between  stupid and clever. 

Thank you Mr. St. Hubbins.

Anyways, this is a good time to look at where you want to end up, where you are and if you need to walk the line, then go for it. Or not. Whatever you are comfortable with.


Because I completely forgot until it was too late, and it is not a quick change, I didn’t show the byes in the numbers. I’ll have to add those next week.  For now, think “weeks of growth” not “game weeks.”




Lachie Young: Wow, it’s like he got a visit from the suck fairy.

Jordan Butts: Yeah, really looks to have topped out. High on the lose list.


Nikolas Cox: Whelp, he went for 89 and is going to go back up, unless he is next on the suck fairy’s to do list.


Jack Buckley: Made a nice comeback and only went down a bit.  Mostly safe to hold until his bye and might be ok if needed after that. He won’t be reliable short term, but maybe averages ok longer term.


Jacob Koschitzke: Seems to be stable now, although key forward are never that stable really.

Thomas Highmore: Did not play.



Jordan Clark:  Did not play.

Changkuoth Jiath:  Hmm, a bad match. Wonder if he is still off from that knock, or is just having midnight visitors of the fairy variety.  I rather expect him to bounce back, but that may just be wishful thinking.



Sam Berry:  Seems to be slowly going up in price still.  Pretty safe to hold for at least one more round, probably until his bye.


James Jordan: Apparently I should never call someone a hold till bye type, since first Powell and now Jordan spudded up and made themselves trade out targets. Jordan had less time on ground and fewer CBAs then last week, and plays the Dogs next, so not really that good a hold I fear.


Tom Powell:  Yet another suck fairy victim.  Backed up his 45 with a 49. Suck.


Lachie McNeil:  Chugging along. His BE of 67 is probably too high, so might need to go now or soon.


Riley Collier-Dawkins: Not a great score but if he plays he earns. Could do a lot better vs the Crows

Ryan Bynes: New and still growing


Matt Flynn:   Wow, he played with Mummy! Who hoo! And with Preuss hurt, he may have a longer time in the team. No idea what to do with him, lets see how this week goes. 


Jordan Sweet:   I’m trying to figure out how the Doctor Who and Bevo mashup works out. “Hey Sweetie” is River Song’s line, and so there just has to be some sort of funny overlap. Maybe I’ll figure it out by next week. 



Robertson:   Slowly making money, still has a job.


Warner: Again – Worst case he hovers around where he is, and likely he goes higher at some point. Has a job up forward, so great.


Scott: Crud. Head knock, double vision and an 18. Sell sell sell.


Rowe: Now he finds from!  No reason to get rid for now.

Bergman:  Did not play

Farar: Did not play

Owies: Still growing

Poulter: Still growing

Jones: Well, back from Moo-ron mountain. Might be the first time that has happened. May not last long, but made some money. BE is only 48.



Atkins: Owch, that 52 hurts.  Might be nearing trade out time. Looking harder to hold.

Daniher: Still doing fine, why trade? Looks like a keep till the bye guy. Yes I am just saying that because I don’t own him and an trying to curse him. Worth a try!



Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.


Dodgy Advice:  Ok, this is some genuine dodgy advice that should almost certainly be ignored after reading and laughing.  He’s cheaper than he started, almost sure to go up or stay the same price and would make a fine M9/F7 and, has that sweet R12 bye.

Oh no!

Please no!

Tom Phillips.  Just $346,300.  A bargain of sorts. Might get you through the byes. Might come good long enough to make money. Of course you don’t want to, but you can’t always get what you want,  although you might get what you need from him.


Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!



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6 thoughts on “Cow Talk R10 –>11”

  1. Just a PSA. The good father’s tables don’t account for the players bye week.
    Just something to look out for if you’re trying to figure out how much cash you’ll have one which bye round.


  2. Will Scott’s price drop after this round or, seeing as he’s not playing, is it frozen until he plays again?


    1. Warner is not an emergency he is listed on a extended bench. The final team is announced tomorrow evening. Then you can make a decision?


      1. Yeh sorry you’re right, only read the first line on his SuperCoach notes “selected as an emergency.” My bad, thanks CT.



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