Scoring Anomalies – Round 21

Written by The Salamander on August 13 2021

First of all, sorry this is a bit late.

As promised, I’ve updated the system so it can break the game into chunks based on when the score changes (with the exception of rushed behinds), so we now have much more fine-grained data to work with. I’ve attached that as a spreadsheet at the bottom, in case anyone wants to take a look and play around.

So, does it get us any closer to being able scale the scores the same way as Champion Data does? I’ve only had a chance to play around with the scores from one match so far (Carlton vs Gold Coast), but the results seem positive so far. I wouldn’t say we’re quite there yet, but it’s certainly been a move in the right direction.

The linear-scaled scores for that game had a mean absolute error (average level of wrongness) of 5.9 points, with the biggest error being 15 points. Through some trial and error, I was able to get those figures down to 3.3 and 9.4 points respectively. I got to those numbers by weighting most of the match at 1, then the period from when the score was 42-44 through to when it was 51-63 at 1.35, and then the remainder of the match (junk time) at 0.5.

The results of that experiment are in the table below:

First NameSurnameScaledActual
ToukMiller155155
WilPowell159153
NoahAnderson138137
BraydenFiorini133126
NicNewman127126
EdCurnow99103
ZacSmith103103
JacobWeitering94102
DarcyMacPherson9696
JackNewnes8593
MatthewKennedy9190
JackBowes8689
SamWalsh9586
JacobTownsend7786
AdamSaad8386
CharlieBallard8586
LiamStocker7678
BenAinsworth7976
JoshCorbett6574
AlexSexton7974
SeanLemmens7274
JackMartin7374
PatrickCripps7273
DavidSwallow7672
JeremySharp7771
LiamJones6871
HarryMcKay6767
JackLukosius6265
JyFarrar6962
JackSilvagni5460
JoshHoney5459
SamCollins5452
LochieO'Brien5452
CharlieCurnow5150
MattRowell4543
PaddyDow4042
ChrisBurgess4741
TomWilliamson4141
ZacFisher4040
BrandonEllis3935
LachiePlowman4034
JoelJeffrey2833
TomDe Koning3229
BenKing2121
EddieBetts2019
MarcMurphy00

 

Clearly, it’s not 100% right – Jacob Weitering’s score is now more wrong than it was before, for example. But most seem to be closer, so I’m calling it a small win for now.

As always, you can get an idea of how any player was scaled on the weekend by looking them up in the table below; for a full scoring breakdown, see the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.

 

Name Club Raw Linear-Scaled ActualDiff
Jack SteeleSTK198158155-3
Touk MillerGCFC191.51531552
Jack MacraeWB183.51541540
Jack GrahamRICH186.51511543
Wil PowellGCFC198158153-5
Tom MitchellHAW208.5156150-6
Peter WrightESS15913314613
Sam TaylorGWS157.512514015
Dayne ZorkoBL176.5147139-8
Alex Neal-BullenMELB159142138-4
Noah AndersonGCFC1691351372
Isaac CummingGWS172137135-2
Jack ScrimshawHAW1601201277
Willem DrewPORT166.5131126-5
Aliir AliirPORT163.5129126-3
Nic NewmanCARL1461171269
Brayden FioriniGCFC166.5133126-7
Jack ReddenWCE148.5133125-8
Blake HardwickHAW1571181257
Tim EnglishWB1371151238
Nick VlastuinRICH155.5126123-3
Marcus BontempelliWB152.5128123-5
James HarmesMELB127.51141239
Zach MerrettESS153128123-5
Rowan MarshallSTK160.5128123-5
Harris AndrewsBL134.511212311
Liam BakerRICH1451181224
Daniel RichBL148123122-1
Oscar McInerneyBL133.51111209
Dion PrestiaRICH151.5123120-3
Paul SeedsmanADEL154122120-2
Sean DarcyFRE152.5127120-7
Luke Davies-UniackeNMFC1451181191
Rory LairdADEL162.5128119-9
Tim TarantoGWS154123118-5
Elliot YeoWCE143.5128117-11
Aaron HallNMFC160.5130116-14
Dan HoustonPORT150118116-2
Caleb SerongFRE159132115-17
Todd GoldsteinNMFC147119115-4
Dylan MooreHAW129.59711215
Jake LloydSYD155124112-12
Tom DoedeeADEL142112111-1
Rhys StanleyGEEL161128111-17
Christian PetraccaMELB1151031118
Sam DraperESS131110109-1
Travis BoakPORT135.51071092
Luke ParkerSYD147.5118108-10
Nic NaitanuiWCE134.5120107-13
Tom StewartGEEL141112107-5
Brodie GrundyCOLL157118107-11
Lachie WhitfieldGWS135.5108107-1
Jy SimpkinNMFC128.51041073
Daniel McStayBL1129310613
Steven MayMELB110981057
Tim KellyWCE120.5108105-3
Ryan BurtonPORT130.51031052
Jack MahonyNMFC1169410410
Luke JacksonMELB112.51011043
Toby GreeneGWS123981046
Daniel McKenzieSTK107.58610418
Ed CurnowCARL121.5971036
Zac SmithGCFC125.51001033
Jack CrispCOLL147.5110103-7
Ollie WinesPORT128.51011032
Harry CunninghamSYD127.51021020
Jed BewsGEEL134.5107102-5
Dean KentSTK1281021020
Jacob WeiteringCARL129.5104102-2
Jack SinclairSTK130.5104102-2
Jack HigginsSTK112.59010010
Bailey WilliamsWB123.5103100-3
Hugh McCluggageBL13311099-11
Zac BaileyBL93779922
Cameron GuthrieGEEL120.596993
Jonathon CeglarHAW133.510099-1
Ben BrownMELB94849915
Zak JonesSTK135.510899-9
Hugo RalphsmithRICH102.5839815
Jarryd LyonsBL14011698-18
Clayton OliverMELB1119998-1
Travis ColyerFRE11696971
Tom LiberatoreWB109.592975
Chad WingardHAW129.597970
Tarryn ThomasNMFC1219896-2
Liam ShielsHAW12694962
Joe DaniherBL10688968
Tom CutlerESS107.590966
Darcy CameronCOLL125.594962
Darcy ParishESS123.510396-7
Darcy MacPhersonGCFC1219796-1
Joel SelwoodGEEL127.510295-7
Hayden YoungFRE118.59894-4
Tom LynchADEL110.587947
Jake KolodjashnijGEEL112.590944
Brayden MaynardCOLL115.587947
Jack HenryGEEL1199593-2
Andrew BrayshawFRE11091932
Josh J. KennedyWCE93.584939
Jimmy WebsterSTK97779316
Jack NewnesCARL100.5809313
Jeremy McGovernWCE9989934
Alex WitherdenWCE86779316
Tom HighmoreSTK1209693-3
Harry PerrymanGWS11390933
Zach SprouleGWS11692931
Nick CoffieldSTK109.587925
Grant BirchallBL10688924
Cameron ZurhaarNMFC10283929
Jordan RidleyESS10790911
Taylor DuryeaWB99.583918
Max GawnMELB1099891-7
Taylor AdamsCOLL1249391-2
Charlie CameronBL122.510291-11
Matthew KennedyCARL116.59390-3
Nick MurrayADEL119.59490-4
Shaun BurgoyneHAW101.5768913
Scott LycettPORT120.59589-6
Jack BowesGCFC11088891
Chayce JonesADEL1239788-9
Harry EdwardsWCE9383885
Tanner BruhnGWS91728816
Lachie HunterWB1079088-2
Daniel RioliRICH1179587-8
Conor NashHAW11687870
Trent McKenziePORT110.587870
Harry HimmelbergGWS92738714
Sam Powell-PepperPORT10079878
Lachlan BrambleHAW132.59986-13
Sam WalshCARL1239886-12
Kieren BriggsGWS116.59386-7
Charlie BallardGCFC10181865
Trent RiversMELB8778868
David MackayADEL1118886-2
Ben McEvoyHAW109.582864
Tom HawkinsGEEL92.5748612
Jacob TownsendGCFC94.5768610
Adam SaadCARL9677869
Jake BoweyMELB103.59385-8
Dom SheedWCE978785-2
Jayden ShortRICH109.58985-4
Jordan DawsonSYD101.581854
Jordan De GoeyCOLL1188885-3
Tom FullartonBL9276848
Jack ZiebellNMFC10484840
Andrew GaffWCE9081843
Reilly O'BrienADEL104.583841
Jordon ButtsADEL107.58583-2
Daniel HoweHAW98738310
Andrew McPhersonADEL83.5668317
Robbie TarrantNMFC9779823
Zach TuohyGEEL1048382-1
James AishFRE106.58882-6
Nick HindESS9781821
Josh SchacheWB93.578824
Dylan ClarkeESS1018582-3
Sydney StackRICH1078781-6
Tom HickeySYD101.581810
Luke DunstanSTK113.59181-10
Miles BergmanPORT1098680-6
Charlie DixonPORT76608020
Sam ReidSYD9475805
Jack DarlingWCE1008980-9
Tim O'BrienHAW95.572808
Ben KeaysADEL103.58280-2
Dylan GrimesRICH1078779-8
Jake MelkshamMELB64577922
Bradley HillSTK1048379-4
Will SnellingESS9479790
Kayne TurnerNMFC1119079-11
Liam StockerCARL101.58178-3
Jack RiewoldtRICH72587820
Shaun HigginsGEEL102.58278-4
Steele SidebottomCOLL111.58478-6
Jed AndersonNMFC1098978-11
Adam CerraFRE1038677-9
Tim MembreySTK9173774
Christian SalemMELB104.59377-16
Nakia CockatooBL85.571776
Zak ButtersPORT98.57876-2
Jordan ClarkGEEL8568768
Adam TreloarWB100.58476-8
Nick HaynesGWS93.574762
Toby NankervisRICH79647612
Rhys MathiesonBL8671765
Ben AinsworthGCFC104.58476-8
Max HolmesGEEL9072753
Jeremy HoweCOLL8866759
George HewettSYD97.57875-3
Karl AmonPORT84.567758
Connor BlakelyFRE957975-4
Josh DunkleyWB95.58075-5
Tom PapleySYD81.5657510
Josh CorbettGCFC81.565749
David MundyFRE100.58374-9
Trent CotchinRICH1068674-12
Rory SloaneADEL97.57774-3
Sean LemmensGCFC8669745
Alex SextonGCFC92.574740
Jack MartinCARL8870744
Tom PhillipsHAW127.59574-21
Chris MayneCOLL1098273-9
Patrick CrippsCARL8770733
Matthew ParkerRICH75617312
Cooper SharmanSTK89.571732
Nick BlakeySYD1018172-9
Bailey SmithWB978172-9
Jack MadgenCOLL9470722
David SwallowGCFC92.57472-2
Brad CrouchSTK105.58472-12
James StewartESS80.567725
Bailey DaleWB94.57972-7
Luke RyanFRE8268724
Aaron NaughtonWB7462719
Thomson DowRICH937671-5
Jeremy SharpGCFC101.58171-10
Liam JonesCARL96.57771-6
Easton WoodWB937871-7
Lincoln McCarthyBL63.5537118
Connor RozeePORT88.570700
Kane LambertRICH927570-5
Mark BlicavsGEEL92.57470-4
Jayden LaverdeESS8168702
Dan ButlerSTK8769701
Will HaywardSYD87.570700
Josh P. KennedySYD107.58669-17
Callan WardGWS8165694
Sebastian RossSTK917369-4
Jake StringerESS847069-1
Sam MenegolaGEEL1008069-11
Harry SchoenbergADEL947468-6
Lachie AshGWS97.57868-10
Martin GleesonESS867268-4
Sam DurhamESS75.563685
Harry McKayCARL88.57167-4
Finlay MacraeCOLL96.57267-5
Josh BruceWB90.57667-9
Robbie FoxSYD7560677
Sam FrostHAW80.560677
Alex PearceFRE86.57267-5
Isaac HeeneySYD71.5576710
Connor IdunGWS87.57066-4
Matt TabernerFRE7361665
Luke McDonaldNMFC846866-2
Shai BoltonRICH7763663
Oliver FlorentSYD73.559667
Jack LukosiusGCFC71.557658
Zac LangdonWCE47426523
Oliver HenryCOLL7959656
Jackson NelsonWCE6861654
Brandan ParfittGEEL93.57465-9
Tom ColeWCE887965-14
Zach GuthrieGEEL84.56764-3
Xavier DuursmaPORT84.56764-3
Josh TreacyFRE88.57364-9
James JordonMELB70.563641
Peter LadhamsPORT7660644
Errol GuldenSYD68.555638
Jaeger O'MearaHAW97.57363-10
Riley BonnerPORT84.56763-4
Oscar AllenWCE837462-12
Mark HutchingsWCE73.56662-4
Tom JonasPORT82.56562-3
Jy FarrarGCFC897162-9
John NobleCOLL81.561610
Matt de BoerGWS7257614
Will Hoskin-ElliottCOLL846361-2
Callum WilkieSTK826561-4
Jack SilvagniCARL71.557603
Jordan RougheadCOLL7355605
Dane RampeSYD75.560600
Mason RedmanESS58496011
Callum Coleman-JonesRICH826759-8
Harry MorrisonHAW62465913
Josh HoneyCARL69.556593
Brad SheppardWCE73.56659-7
Jake LeverMELB60.554595
Jarrod BerryBL71.559590
David AstburyRICH87.57158-13
Jamie ElliottCOLL77.558580
Zaine CordyWB71.56058-2
Darcy TuckerFRE796658-8
Xavier O'HalloranGWS73.55957-2
Max KingSTK61.549578
Justin McInerneySYD81.56557-8
Ryan LesterBL826857-11
Ben McKayNMFC6150566
Jacob KoschitzkeHAW806056-4
Tom McCartinSYD62.550566
Rhyan MansellRICH67.555561
Callum M. BrownGWS58465610
Dylan ShielESS6353563
Alec WatermanESS50425614
Nathan KreugerGEEL806456-8
Caleb DanielWB675655-1
Orazio FantasiaPORT56445511
Aaron FrancisESS72.56155-6
Harrison PettyMELB655854-4
Trent DumontNMFC74.56154-7
Liam HenryFRE6352531
Curtis TaylorNMFC53435310
Esava RatugoleaGEEL715752-5
Lochie O'BrienCARL766152-9
Elliott HimmelbergADEL66.55352-1
Nik CoxESS635352-1
Sam CollinsGCFC665352-1
Keidean ColemanBL52.544517
James RowbottomSYD65.55251-1
Mitch GeorgiadesPORT695451-3
Shane EdwardsRICH57.547514
Robbie GrayPORT58.546515
Matt GuelfiESS56.547514
Brandon StarcevichBL625150-1
Jamie CrippsWCE645750-7
Darcy Byrne-JonesPORT72.55750-7
Charlie CurnowCARL60.548502
Devon SmithESS645449-5
Tom SparrowMELB5448491
Mitch LewisHAW6146482
Brandon WalkerFRE746148-13
Jack GinnivanCOLL73.55548-7
Ed LangdonMELB58.55248-4
Callum Ah CheeBL5546482
Nick LarkeyNMFC4940477
Isaac QuaynorCOLL68.55147-4
Luke DahlhausGEEL604847-1
Mitch RobinsonBL4537469
Ned McHenryADEL51.541454
Quinton NarkleGEEL5544440
Jake RiccardiGWS49.539434
Matt RowellGCFC52.542431
Brody MihocekCOLL55.542431
Jason JohannisenWB4538435
Paddy DowCARL554442-2
Brayden CookADEL564442-2
Josh ThomasCOLL66.55042-8
Nathan WilsonFRE42.535427
Angus BrayshawMELB50.54542-3
Darcy FogartyADEL544342-1
Chris BurgessGCFC55.54441-3
Lachie SchultzFRE42.535416
Lloyd MeekFRE46.539412
Jaidyn StephensonNMFC544441-3
Jaxon PriorBL4336415
Josh WalkerNMFC55.54541-4
Tom WilliamsonCARL604841-7
Brent DanielsGWS53.54340-3
Darragh JoyceSTK45.536404
Beau McCreeryCOLL48.536404
Zac FisherCARL52.54240-2
James WorpelHAW584339-4
Trey RuscoeCOLL584338-5
Lance FranklinSYD4334384
Jack PetruccelleWCE42.53837-1
Shannon HurnWCE33.530377
Charlie SpargoMELB464136-5
Riley GarciaWB484036-4
Eddie FordNMFC38.531365
Aiden BonarNMFC41.534351
Matt BuntineGWS453635-1
Brandon EllisGCFC524235-7
Jamarra Ugle-HaganWB40.534340
Lachie PlowmanCARL37.530344
James PeatlingGWS43.53534-1
Joel JeffreyGCFC3326337
Tom J. LynchRICH3629334
Bailey ScottNMFC43.53531-4
Will HamillADEL423331-2
Ed RichardsWB41.53531-4
Kysaiah PickettMELB31.528313
Ryan ByrnesSTK43.53531-4
Nathan VardyWCE413731-6
Brodie SmithADEL41.53330-3
Griffin LogueFRE29.524306
Oliver HanrahanHAW31.524295
Tom De KoningCARL41.53329-4
Tom CampbellNMFC373029-1
Aaron vandenBergMELB353129-2
Bayley FritschMELB3128280
Luke EdwardsWCE2724284
Leo ConnollySTK34.52827-1
Kyle HartiganHAW392927-2
Ben DavisADEL2721276
Anthony ScottWB373127-4
Lachlan MurphyADEL34.52726-1
Connor WestWCE34.53125-6
Maurice RioliRICH2520244
Anthony McDonald-TipungwutiESS29.52523-2
Sam WicksSYD2722220
Mitch CrowdenFRE27.52321-2
Ben KingGCFC27.52221-1
Patrick DangerfieldGEEL2520211
Brad CloseGEEL272220-2
Eddie BettsCARL23.519190
Jake SteinGWS2117181
Riley ThilthorpeADEL1613185
Jake KellyADEL322518-7
Brett BewleyFRE262215-7
Tyler BrockmanHAW201514-1
Jack BytelSTK26.52112-9
Nick ShipleyGWS7.5693
Dylan StephensSYD13.5119-2
Gary RohanGEEL12109-1
Jayden HuntMELB8.5880
Joel WesternFRE3.5341
Thomas BerryBL653-2
Todd MarshallPORT0000
Trent BiancoCOLL0000
Will PhillipsNMFC0000
Archie PerkinsESS0000
Marc MurphyCARL0000
Jason CastagnaRICH0000
Roarke SmithWB0000
Ryan ClarkeSYD0000

 

LEGEND:

Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.

 

Download the full breakdowns:

Round 21 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

Round 21 Summary (General Categories)

 

Download the time-based scoring breakdown:

Round 21 Fine-Grained Scores

 

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