Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
So, I’m an idiot again.
Again? Don’t you mean still?
Meh. I realized something that I “knew” and should have been obvious, but I never connected up consciously before.
Meaning you never wrote about it also
Right. At least not directly.
I somehow sense you are going to now
Trades need to get you points. Cash leads to points, so often we focus on that, but the end goal is points. Not gonna talk about cash stuff now. Have before, will again.
Points though…. I have been talking about the whole points thing all season, but just got that there are really two kinds of trades for points. Well, three if you count “both at once” as a kind. But two, um, approaches to getting points from trades.
There being two clear types of point trades is the big thing?
Well, not big, but a still nice to have explicit thing. Anyways, shush.
The first is the upgrade. You bring in Fred in place of Charlie because you expect Fred to score enough better than Charlie each week to make the trade worthwhile by the end of the season.
How many points do you need to get from a trade to make it worthwhile?
Well….oh no, that’s a big enough question it is gonna have to be gone over next week, assuming the byes don’t leave me a quivering wreck, rocking in the corner and unable to write.
Like last season?
Yeah…lets not talk about last season’s byes….
Awww, I got to write Cow Talk one week during your little episode.
And I got to write it another week! First time pumpkin seeds got appropriate attention.
Right, you know that counts as talking about the three weeks that shall not be named. So, zip it.
So, for this week, lets just go with a very minimum of 100 points and a target of 200 points per trade.
So, and I know I have talked about this before but please bear with me, if you trade Fred out before round three and bring in Charlie, you have 20 weeks left, so you need a 5 point improvement per week to hit 100, and a 10 point improvement a week to hit 200.
If you make that trade before round fourteen, then you need 10 points a week to hit 100 and 20 points a week to hit 200. If Fred is a cow and Charlie is a premium, you can certainly get a 20+ point a week improvement.
The second type is the replacement. Replacement for Suspension and Injury I suppose, but that’s long so sticking to replacement
Now, if at any time of the year, Fred gets hurt, instead of a long slow improvement, we are looking at a big fast improvement. If no Fred = donut, then Charlie scoring 100 makes the minimum in one week. If Fred is out for two weeks, then Charlie scoring 100 makes the target in two weeks. If Fred is out for three weeks, you are way ahead.
And if Fred has a backup?
Backup scores 50, Charlie makes 50 over so hits the minimum in two rounds. A lot depends on the backup. If the backup scores 80, then no point in making the trade unless Fred is out a long time. If the backup scores, oh 17, a number I just made up for no reason at all, grrr, then it is not much different than having no backup.
So, nice but what’s the point?
Ah, well. The point is that sideways upgrades, where you are trying to get a 10-15 point better average, are slow, and very speculative. Easy to get wrong. Heck, possible to get wrong. But injury replacements are hard to impossible to have go wrong. Fred is out so gets no points and then Charlie comes in and you get points for sure, and right away.
So, replacement trades are more likely to get you points and can get you a lot more points than upgrade trades.
And, therefore having trades around late in the year when the injuries really start to hit is important. Which means that if you use your trades making speculative upgrades early in the season, then you might not have them at the end of the year.
And when a premium goes down injured for 3+ weeks, and you are out of trades and can’t replace him, then you lose far more points from that then you gained from that “correctional” Dunkley to Boak trade before round 3. Which as of now, has made 29 points. If you made that trade before round 4, you are down 27 points. Zac Williams to Whitfield, before round 10 is worth 115 points plus whatever Whitfield scores R11. And maybe more depending on when Williams comes back.
But Whitfield is better than Williams too!
Yup, another benefit. In addition to the injury cover, you get to upgrade at the same time! Zac to Lachie could end up worth 300-600 points. Any correctional trade gonna make that?
Well, no. Don’t think so.
Yup. And now I have finally put into words and numbers why saving trades is so important.
You realize this is about ten weeks too late to be really useful right? Barn door, horses already missing?
Pumpkin seeds stolen by the Great Pumpkin of Doom!
Well, yeah. But I didn’t think of it until I had to make a replacement trade and I had enough trades left I wasn’t afraid to, and it worked out and then everything came together in my head when I read the “Trading Floor” Post and wrote my entry there. Better late than never.
Note: I have not yet put in the byes. Will do that next week. That means the rounds are rounds of growth, and not the actual round numbers. once the byes hit.
Collins – Did not play
Scrimshaw – Was doing well but got injured mid game. Could have been worse, but darn. Stable price for a while at least.
Hore – Last week I said “Mr Reliable. Until I said that. I beg the SC gods not be smite him.” Wow an anti -smiting! Who hoo! Money money money! I re-beg for no smiting.
Clark – Has a job and could make money up to his bye.
Duursma – Last week I wrote “Quite done. Seems likely to go backwards.” Um, wrong. Wow, wrong. But a happy wrong, at least for his owners. Truly excellent time to put up a season high score
Wilke – Will probably. PROBABLY hover around his current price. Not for sure.
Rozee – Pretty good chance to stay over $400k.
Burgess – Wow, he’s back. And scored right about his average. Still not worth moving on, but playing and points are better than no points.
Walsh – Lost some cash, and I do do not care because of his high job security.
Butters – Should make a bit more cash next week before topping out. Should.
Atkins – Another season high score at a great time for his owners. That 12 means his big growth will happen in two price rises, so perfect for trading out on his bye.
Cousins – Has some more cash to make, and plays in R13….
Bailey Smith – Keep chugging along. Does play R13.
Gibbons – He’s just wobbling around now, up and down as his scores go up and down. Up and down. Now I’m seasick.
Stack– He has pretty much made his money, but has more upside them many of the older cows.
Lockheart – Oh the 32 hurts. Bad cow, bad! Very risky to hold at this point.
Davies – Uniacke – Back! So! What? 44? Ick! One! Word? Sentences!
O’Brian – Hold if you can but no reason not to cash in if needed
Parker – Well, that 75 sure helped the old Three Round Average! Gonna make some of what he lost back it looks like.
Setterfield – Did not play
Miers – Falling to Earth like someone who used wax to make his wings. Owch.
Petruccelle – Looks like he will slowly drop. Looks like. Not for Sure.
Balta – Still gets TWO projections. The top one with his season average and the bottom one with his four round average. I hope with great hope he plays to R14 and keep scoring 80+ the whole time. Hope hope hope. Hey, it worked last week!
Baker – The 54 pretty much stopped his growth, but the 105 started it right back up. Wow! The gods have been way generous, and we all thank you. All his owners at least. Still some money to made before his bye.
Remember, all predictions wrong or triple your money back!
Apologies in advance for delays in responding to comments, ’cause sleep and work. Stupid time zones.
Thanks for Reading!
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom