Motts Movers R3, 2012 – The Forwards

Written by Motts on April 16 2012

Welcome to the first edition of Motts Movers for 2012! Every week I’ll be analysing each position on the field based on the most recent stats to hand.

The loss of Nat Fyfe (who’s in 34% of teams) for up to 3 months has prompted me to begin my 2012 analysis with a look at the blokes in your Forward line.

Stats will all be the same as last year ie (Price, Average, Break Even) and I’ll be looking at 3 different levels of player – Premiums (for those with a tough game coming up that they need some serious firepower for), Midpricers (for those looking to take a little risk in exchange for a cheaper purchase price) and Value Picks (for those looking to make a little cash).

Premiums

Brent Harvey ($547,700, 111.33, 80) – next 3 opponents: Sydney, GC, WC (away). Followed by WB, Port, and Brisbane after that.

Jordan Lewis ($499,500, 105.3, 58) – next 3 opponents: WC, Sydney, St Kilda.

I’m omitting Buddy because his price is still too high and Goodes because he’s been suspended this week.

Midpricers

Patrick Dangerfield ($443,300, 94.67, 71) – next 3 opponents: GWS, PA, Sydney

Kurt Tippett ($445,300, 120.0, 53) – next 3 opponents: GWS, PA, Sydney

Tom Hawkins ($414,100, 104.67, 7) – next 3 opponents: Richmond, Brisbane, Melbourne

Brendan Whitecross ($419,400, 110.00, 16) – next 3 opponents: WC, Sydney, St Kilda.

Value Picks

Adam Treloar ($113,200, 73, -79) – only played one game though so make sure he gets named this week.

Adam Kennedy ($190,700, 81.67, -28)

Devon Smith ($178,600, 62.33, -27)

(note: I’m leaving Rhys Stanley out of this list on the basis that his first 3 opponents have been Port, the GC and the Dogs – 3 teams that would probably artificially inflate your numbers).

Next up will be the Backs – need to find all you poor souls who traded him in a Dempsey replacement.

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63 thoughts on “Motts Movers R3, 2012 – The Forwards”

  1. Hope Treloar can back up again this week. Stuck with Ledger last week so having missed the boat on other mid cows Treloar could be ideal if Ledger doesn’t get a gig in the next two weeks.

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  2. I’m thinking Fyfe to Ward, someone has to take the points for gws, he is held in the same stead as Ablett for GWS so I’m sure he will come good soon…

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  3. I know il be given crap for this one
    And rightfully so, but any love fir the worst named player in the afl. The one and only the Chad, he’s been rolling along nicely. Poor effort this week but somebody has to get possessions back there

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  4. Even if Fyfe does play Friday night, he is just going to keep having shoulder problems. If this is the case i will still be trading him cause im sure he will have to get it reconstructed some time anyway. The young man has a great future ahead of him and he wouldnt want to keep issues with his shoulder.

    Before his price drops anymore, im trading him for sidebottom who will certainly be playing more midfield.

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  5. Great to see Motts Movers back. The original and the best. Always look forward to these. Cheers for the insight and the hard work Motts. Champion.

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  6. OK, I know this is gona sound crazy, but I’m giving serious thought to Chadwick Cornes. With an average of 105, and a bargain $415k and I don’t have to worry about him being rested during or late in the season…. my first ever thumbs up and thumbs down vote…… ?

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  7. I’ve been thinking of boarding the chadwagon too. Didnt see what he did on the weekend but shreds has been playing him loose down back early. This was his role when he made all Australian CHB. He is very fit this year after an easy year last year. He reads the play very well and will mark a lot of opposition kicks into defensive 50. He also really wants to prove to port that they treated him wrong last year. If shreds keeps him down back loose too stem the flow while giving the younger key defensive players more lock down one on one roles for experience, he could end up averaging 100.

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  8. IF I decide to make a move on Fyfe, either one of the following will be drafted into my side in order of risk.

    Dangerfield – Sidebottom – Cornes

    Dangerfield has proven consistent across the first 3 rounds combined with an average of 105 in preseason. Adelaide have the best fixture in the league, but will playing GWS, GC and Port twice each give the coach opportunities to rest players?

    Sidebottom should get plenty of midfield time with Ball’s absence. Luke’s injury (not that we ever like to see season ending injuries) could be the catalyst Sidebum needs to turn himself into a premium.

    I see Chadwick Cornes having the potential to become the ultimate POD this year.
    Couple his 121,104 and 90 in the first 3 rounds with a 128 in preseason and we may have the old Supercoach king back, floating loose in defence (SC GOLD!)
    He averaged 120 in 2005 and 117 in 2007. I remember him as the Goddard equivalent back in the days when I was starting my SC career.

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  9. My thoughts:

    Boomer had 38 touches against Geelong, was deemed by SEN and 3AW as best on ground (don’t know about the rest) yet only snared 106 SC points. IMO he’s going to find it a fraction harder this year to score in SC because the likes of Ziebell and Bastinac are scoring more in SC. Same’s happening to a degree to Swallow i’m noticing. Good for the club but not good for Boomer’s SC prospects. Still likely to avg mid-high 90’s IMO, just trying to give food for thought.

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  10. If Fyfe’s playing then he’s staying put in my SC team, but if he’s to go under the knife, his potential replacements in my team are:

    Sidebottom, N Riewoldt, Whitecross and lastly Goodes

    * Already have Buddy, Dangers and Dusty
    * If Goodes wasn’t suspended he’d probably jump to the top of my list

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  11. I was thinking of trading Fyfe for Ballantyne. At 390k and having scored 105 first week would eventually rise in price or does he get to many tagging jobs to score regularly?

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  12. even if fyfe is named i’m thinking of still trading him. He looked pretty bad, and even if he is ok i think he runs an extremely high risk of re-injuring it. With the injury he won’t play aswell as he has before. I think he will be used as the sub or be subbed off at some point. I can’t afford him to be the sub or play bad with goodes out, and still unsure about J.Cameron? saw he got injured but not sure how bad. Fyfe is looking at another very high price drop i think, if he doesn’t perform or is subbed off, making it hard for an upgrade. I’m not saying i will definitely be trading him, but it is something i am looking at.

    thumbs up- have a good think, but consider a trade
    thumbs down- definitely don’t do it

    btw motts, great write up mate 🙂

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  13. No point playing him if he’s gonna be sub or get subbed of. Better of having surgery for the long term aspect of things and IMO, Freo are better of playing a kid to get a few games in him such as Neale when he returns from injury

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  14. In need of your help,
    I have 150k in the bank and Nat fyfe who i am going to get rid of

    thumbs up: Sidebottom
    thumbs down: Boomer Harvey

    use those thumbs!

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