SuperCoach Planning 2019 – Part TWO

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 1 2019

AllSaints continues on with his planning strategy today…………

 

Selection Strategy

 

While most people will start with approximately 13/14 premiums, 15/16 rookies and one Loophole rookie, some will start with 15/16 premiums (incl. potential breakouts and/or previous year injuries1) with 13/14 rookies and one Loophole. Some SCTers prefer no loophole at all, relying on injuries or non-selection in future rounds to provide them with the option then.

 

There is no right or wrong answer at this stage, since we don’t have enough information for next year (eg rookies and their JS, player availability, positional status, trades, new coaches, bye allocations etc.). What we do have is loads of data AND a well-considered and trusted strategy for team set-up. From what I have learned in my year at SCT, we can start by making some broad assumptions. We can then look at data to better inform some key decision-making and finally try to put some bare bones in place, in order to be in the strongest position possible, when SuperCoach 2019 opens in earnest.

 

Like your “living list”, strategy selection should be inter-changeable to meet your needs. We can look at pricing now for 2019 and start to put that skeleton side together.

 

Following the above guidelines, we should start by picking a minimum 4-6-2-4 uber premium list, given that NO team will likely ever start with that many Premiums. It allows for more flexibility for final selection when the bye rounds are announced and allows you to ONLY try and pick 4 of the Top 7 DEFs and FWDs, 6 of the Top 9 MIDs and the RUC approach is a personal choice. Remember, the intention when choosing starting Premiums is to ONLY pick those that you believe will not need to be traded for the ENTIRE season (unless picking up an LTI of course).

 

 

SuperCoach 2019 Pricing

 

Over the last couple of months I have done some detailed analysis on starting prices for any given SC season. I’ve used a sample size of 62 players and have gone back 5 years in some cases just to make sure (test/validate assumptions) and as far as I can work out, the following is true.

 

allsaints’ Blessed Number

This is different to FD’s magic number and I will explain as we go through this section. At the start of every year, the SC algorithm sets a blessed number for pricing. It appears that this number takes into account the history of SC scoring over the last season and acts as an inflationary marker at season’s start. As the season progresses it adjusts (downwards) to account for points volumes and duly has a significant bearing on BEs and how prices (based on $ per point) change over the season. The more NEW players that play in a given week and the more points they score, the greater the deflationary pressure on the overall market. At season’s start the blessed number is applied to all established players and rookies for the forthcoming season. It increases from year-to-year, a little like inflation, which is why our base rookie prices increase each year, from c. $92k back in the ’80s 😉 to $102,400 this year.

 

This year the blessed number at season’s start was approx. $5498

– In 2017 it was approx. $5438.7

– In 2016 it was approx. $5396.2

Interest rates over the last four-five years have fluctuated from a low of .43%, to a high of 1.1% (this year). For next year, we will assume the largest increase will be inflicted upon us. If we do that, we can assume that the blessed number will be $5558.478 in 2019. It will likely be less than that, but this way it serves its purposes for planning (ie we will likely overprice our desired premos, but I’d suggest by no more than 2% given the decimal ranges we’re working to.

 

It is also worth noting that the blessed number for Rd 23 2018 was only $4843.70. That represents an 11.9% drop in $/point value over the course of the season, and THAT is the consequence of new players and new points entering the aggregate scores over the course of the season. It is also the reason that a player starting the 2018 season with a 2017 average of 100, would have been priced at $549,800 at season’s start, whereas a player this week who has averaged 100 over the course of this season, with a three-game average of 100 will this week be priced at $484,400 and will have a BE of 100. We will talk more about this in a later edition, but means that your dollars in the bank will buy MORE point-value as the season progresses.

 

 

Right, now to pricing rules

 

You can get a pretty good indication now on the premos you like/want given that their starting price in 2019 will be no more than their average at this season’s end x $5558.478. This ‘rule’ will ring true for ALL players who have played 8 or more games in 2018. There are no exceptions. It is for players who have played less than 8 games or none at all, for who discounts will apply.

 

An example: Dangerfield currently averages 118.4. At this average, his starting price in 2019 will be no more than $685,100

 

 

Discounts

 

If a player plays less than 8 games then there are some generic discounts that apply (regardless of whether they are an established player or a rookie).

 

6-7 games: if a player plays only six or seven games in a season, then you can calculate his starting price as above, but then apply a 10% discount (or multiply your answer by 0.9). There are no exceptions I can find.

 

4-5 games: if a player plays only four or five games in a season, then you can calculate his starting price as above, but then apply a 20% discount (or multiply your answer by 0.8), again there are no exceptions that I can find.

 

0 games:

– For established players who miss an entire season (eg Docherty, Williams, Z) you have to take their average from the previous year (2017) then calculate their starting price as normal, but then apply a 30% discount! Or multiply the answer by 0.7

o Docherty in 2019 will be priced at no more than $446,300

§ I could only find one exception to this rule over the last 5 years and that was Liberatore in 2016, who received a discount of 40%.

o All 13 players I looked at from last year, received the 30% discount, bar none.

– For rookie players who didn’t play a game this year there are two rules

o Premium-priced rookies (or Round1 draft picks) who don’t play a game will be priced at the higher base-priced rookie, (ie what was $123,900 in 2018), while

o standard rookies will be priced at a discount down to and including the minimal rookie price (ie what was $102,400 in 2018).

 

For one, two and three game players it becomes a little more complicated, but there are some rules. Start all calculations in the usual manner, ie 2018 average * blessed number, then:

 

Three-game players: there are two rules. Usual calculations apply, but

– If a player averages less than 50 he receives a 20% discount off starting price, and

– If a player averages more than 50 he receives a 30% discount (yes, I know that seems counter-intuitive, but it is correct)

 

One and two-game players: again usual calculations apply (ave*5558.478), then:

– All players who average more than 70 receive a 40% discount

– Rookies who average between 50 and 70 receive a 30% discount

– Established players with the same average get a 20% discount

– Rookies who average less than 50 receive a 20% discount (but will not be priced less than the standard rookie price, ie what was $123,900 in 2018)

– Established players who average less than 50 are potatoes and should not be considered under any circumstances 😉

 

 

With the above information, you can start building your Premium Target List for 2019 and subsequently put a skeleton side together. For example ONLY…….

 

The above uber premium skeleton list will cost no more than $7,981,900 at today’s ave.s, using the upper blessed number value. This leaves on average $126,300 for each rookie; and slightly more per rookie if you choose a base-priced loophole. While it is unlikely that Danger, or in particular Dusty will be afforded FWD status, this process allows you to see what you can afford. Your living “target list” will then provide you with the necessary contingency target players to fill such holes, should positional status not be available when SC 2019 eventually opens.

 

We’ll talk about Rookies next. In the meantime, good luck putting your Premium Lists together!

 

** Thanks to AllSaints for his insight into planning for Rd1! – Schwarzwalder **

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16 thoughts on “SuperCoach Planning 2019 – Part TWO”

  1. Thanks Sainter.

    Great piece. All those numbers remind me of a FD sermon. 🙂

    Heres my Premo Want list for 2019.

    I have Included 4 rucks 8 defenders and Forwards and 12 mids.
    This is to allow for any Injuries or problems with the Byes.
    Price is not an Issue in this list. Its just who I think will top score on that line.

    Backs: 95 +ppg.

    Lloyd, Whitfield, Laird, Simo, Crisp, Sicily, Hurn, Williams.

    Mids: 115 +ppg.

    Macrea, T Mitch, Cripps, Neale, J.kelly, Oliver, Fyfe, Zerrett.
    Yeo, Martin, Treloar, M. Crouch.

    Rucks. 105 +ppg

    Grundy, Max, Goldie, Stef Martin.

    Forwards: 100+ppg.

    Danger, Grey, Heeney, Smith, Menegola, Mundy, Buddy, Dunkley.

    There will be guys come out of nowhere Maybe Angus Brayshaw in the Mids or Tom Hawkins again up forward. I still feel this is a pretty solid list to start with.

    Happy New year.

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    1. Thanks FT.

      Your list looks perfectly good to me. They’re all on my list except for Simmo (surely he’s too old to do it AGAIN!?!!!). Happy to be proven wrong … again.

      On my extended watchlist (won’t start them) are:
      DEF: Witherden, Short
      MID: Ross (IFF Hanners is fit & firing), Taylor Adams (ave. 112 post-byes, if you include his 120+ average across his four finals), Angus Brayshaw, Jack Steele(!) and Lachie Hunter
      RUC: Nankervis
      FWD: Billings (just think everyone was a year early and cos I didn’t have him, he’s NOT on my never again list!), Tim Kelly (mature-aged rookies who prove themselves in year one can go straight to 100+ in season two, which is good enough in your FWD line) and you can’t rule out Toby Greene (the eejit)

      Will be funny to look back at season’s end and see how wrong we are 😉

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      1. All good points.

        I feel, like Short, T Adams may have put up his best numbers last year when Treloar went down with those hamstrings.

        Also with Beams coming to town, there will be hot competition for midfield spots at the Pies.
        I can’t see Adams getting enough midfield time to make top 15 mid this year. Hopefully he spends a lot of time in defence and we can get him next year as a D/M.

        Witherten and Short are in an extended list of “stars of the future”. This list included Ryan, and Blakey from Freo. Mills from Sydney and Harris Andrews.

        I think they are all capable of Premo Status this year. But from experience only one or two will. Can you tell me which?

        I like T kelly.
        But I have some doubts.
        He really No really wanted to go to the Eagles. Even with their terrible theme song. I’m just worried he wont have the desire and will to win we saw last year. Geelong continue to give his midfield spot to him or will they be more willing to try a youngster ( menengola?)that is hanging around. Just too many unknowns for me.Plus his round 13 bye sucks.

        Maybe I’m just bummed he didn’t want to go to Freo.
        We have a much more catchy theme song!

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        1. Very good points re: Adams, tho’ he did ave. 120 in finals when Treloar was back. I hear that Beams will be a MID/FWD in 2020 and Pendles maybe DEF/MID if my Pies mates can be trusted. We’ll see, but I would never start him anyway.

          You’re not wrong about the Rd13 bye either … it’s gonna be mayhem:

          Lloyd, Crisp, Hurn
          Oliver, Neale, Treloar, Yeo
          Grundy, Gawn, Martin
          Dangerfield, Hawkins, Franklin, Menegola, Heeney … even T Kelly

          I totally hear what you’re saying about Kelly and I know. He REALLY wanted to go home. The wife and three kids, whether or not they are, the issue must be putting enormous pressure on his mental state, poor kid (not so young)!

          All that said, he’s a pro and will be giving it everything (like a player out of contract 😉 ) to get himself the best deal he can when he does go west at year’s end. I could be wrong, but … I’ve kind of convinced myself over the last few weeks. A lot can change between now and March, so I’m not gonna shuffle around with team versions for a while. Just gonna enjoy watching the pre-season unfold, and make the odd crass comment about my babies (eg Steele)!

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    2. PS I think you have your ppg ‘s the wrong way round for DEFs vs FWDs and your MIDs vis-a-vis RUCs. Historically, we should be looking at
      DEF: 100+
      MID: 110+
      RUC: 115+
      FWD: 95+
      Think it’s important from a focus/emphasis perspective. I think there’s a fair bit of analysis on this in the next piece I sent to Schwarz.

      And a Happy New Year to you too!

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      1. You could be right with some of the averages.
        They’re just what I use as a guide.

        Although last year was a particularly huge year for the ruck line.
        Except for the Goldie a few years ago I can’t think of another ruck averaging 115+ in my time at SC.

        One other thing to consider when I talk averages. Lets take the midfield for instance. I would like them all to average 115.But they don’t all have too. My M1 may average 130 and my M8 only 100 but they average out to 115.

        One more thing to note is, last year only 7 defenders averaged 95+

        13 Forwards actually averaged 95+

        It strange, but it seems there’s more premium
        forwards to choose from than defenders.

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        1. I hear ya. Have looked at averages across all lines over the last 6 years, and it goes something like this (based on the summed top 6 averages divided by six):

          DEF: six-yr ave. 105.3, last two yr. ave. 104.6, last yr 104.7
          MID: six-yr ave. 117.8, last two yr. ave. 117.9, last yr 118.95
          RUC: six-yr ave. 112.9, last two yr. ave. 112.2, last yr 121.3, and
          FWD: six-yr ave. 105.1, last two yr. ave. 98.1, last yr 99.75

          You’re right about MIDs vs RUCs, I didn’t check first. My apologies for that 😉

          I guess the point is that the 13 UBER Premos anyone starts with (and on whatever lines), need to be a shoe-in to exceed the two-yr ave. on that line (to the SCTer whose team it is). Of course it also makes sense to focus on those lines that deliver higher averages and to leave yourself scope for flexibility on each line! It’s not easy is it!?!?

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            1. Yes. But I was too pi$$ed to respond at the time, sorry!!
              I think it’s purely a matter of choice and opportunity. I’ve started researching breakouts/mid-price gift horses over the last few years and while it’s not finished yet, the majority of the mid-pricers come from an interrupted previous year, either LTI or hugely injury-effected scores and changes in circumstance/role/club.
              Over and above the obvious ones (eg Miles and Zac Williams) there are a couple of other I’ve spotted.
              Ratugolea had a -2 and 32 in his scores last year and is definitely underpriced). Dean Kent similar (and that’s in my St Kilda review).
              Knees after a different kettle of fish altogether.

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              1. Yeah. I here ya.

                It really is quite rare for a player to be playing a few seasons and then just” break out” and score 20+ppg more.

                I think I heard when it does happen its usually a high draft pick. not sure where that came from.

                His name has been mentioned in earlier posts but I feel H McCluggage ticks all the boxes.
                Early draft pick , Possible new role in midfield.
                Brisbane on the improve. Now where do I find those brass balls of mine?

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  2. I still think I might start Tim Kelly. Gets so much MID-time that his DPP status is another lovely gift from the SC gods.

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  3. The other problem will be the FWD line come the byes. It might be worth starting Tom Lynch (he HAS to be underpriced) or Jack Riewoldt (potentially freed up) as we don’t have a single Rd14 bye player in our extended Top6 lists!! Could prove a massive headache in Rds 12 and 13 with holes everywhere!!

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  4. using the model 3-5-2-3 leaves on average $126,300 for the rest if I read it correctly. This leaves out players from that middle range say $130000-$premium. Many of these players you would expect to increase their price and some of the chosen rookies to do poorly. Adjustments?
    Great thread by the way!

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    1. There should be a few significantly less than that, and if you also start a $102k loophole, you SHOULD be able to afford a couple of expensive rookies. History suggests you wouldn’t want more than two/three anyway.

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