JLT2 Game Chat: Bulldogs vs StKilda

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 10 2019

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda at Mars Stadium, 4.10pm AEDT


B:E.Wood – C 10 A.Naughton 33 D.Morris 38
HB:H.Crozier 9 Z.Cordy 12 C.Daniel 35
C:L.Hunter 7 J.Macrae 11 E.Richards 20
HF:B.Gowers 26 J.Schache 13 S.Lloyd 22
F:T.McLean 16 M.Bontempelli 4 T.Liberatore 21
Foll:J.Trengove 8 J.Dunkley 5 M.Wallis 3
I/C from:M.Suckling 1 B.Smith 6 T.Duryea 15 F.Greene 30 W.Hayes 32 B.Williams 34 L.Young 40 T.English 44 R.West 14 B.Cavarra 25 P.Lipinski 27 T.Dickson 29    

In: J.Schache
Out: Nil

Notable absentees: Liam Picken, Lin Jong, Roarke Smith


B: J.Geary – C 14 D.Joyce 39 S.Savage 5
HB: J.Battle 26 D.Roberton 17 J.Webster 29
C: J.Billings 15 J.Newnes 16 J.Sinclair 35
HF: J.Gresham 4 J.Bruce 27 D.Kent 25
F: T.Membrey 28 P.McCartin 32 M.Parker 34
Foll: R.Marshall 19 S.Ross 6 J.Steele 9
I/C from: L.Dunstan 7 H.Clark 11 J.Lonie 13 B.Long 21 N.Brown 22 E.Phillips 30 N.Hind 40 C.Wilkie 44 N.Coffield 1 B.Paton 33 D.Armitage 20 L.Pierce 42

In: R.Marshall, B.Long
Out: Nil

Notable absentees: Jake Carlisle, Jack Steven, Dan Hannebery, Blake Acres, Max King, Billy Longer


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54 thoughts on “JLT2 Game Chat: Bulldogs vs StKilda”

  1. With Lloyd into the Dogs team, does this help free up one of those MID/FWD players in Mclean, Wallis or Dunkley?


  2. Roberton playing his way into my side.

    With the defensive and forward rookies looking thin.

    He is looking like a solid- ish D4.


    1. He’s a proven premo. This is training for him. Wait until the real stuff starts. I hope everyone jumps off him.


        1. Not expensive for a guy that consistent. Beat the tag. Can go 150+ woukd have averaged 130 last year had he not done the hamstring mid game. He is more likely IMO to play 22 games and average 125 + than Grundy or Gawn and everyone is comfortable picking those to at a richer price. Lock McRae in and throw away the key.


      1. Tommo.

        I know you have been around the site for a while so I need to a question.

        Is it a fact/ ( theory at least) that Uber Premo Captains choices are actually priced unders?

        Let me try to explain..

        Say you spend $690K on Gawn.

        Every time you use his V/Captains score ,he actually scores more points for “your side” Inherently increasing his value.

        Eg: Gawn scores 150 ( he did this 5x last year, Grundy 7x) you take it. You would of taken 130 from your V/C., So I see this as a (2x 20) 40 point win.

        Say for another Eg he does this for your side 4 times this season. Thats an extra 180 points he has added to “your side”

        I’m no maths genius and please tell me if I’m way off.

        23 week season 180 points

        Thats 7.8 per week

        If you add that to Gawn’s average over the year.

        He is potentially priced nearly $80k unders.

        And this goes for all Uber Premo Captains choices?

        Surely someone has thought of this before.


        1. I told you I wasn’t good at Maths!

          Should be 160 points.

          This changes to the value saved to closer to $50K /$60K

          The theory still stands!


          1. Interesting way to look at it. I think it’s a valid argument as long as they would be C/VC. Probably would…cheers M.


        2. Sorry mate, just saw your post.

          Players with established high ceilings definitely have added value dependent on whether you successfully captain them and whether many other players score captain-worthy scores too.

          In 2017 Dangerfield was practically perma-Captain so the high scores of other players were rarely captained. In 2018, with Danger averaging less, captaining the right player was super-important and added heaps of value.

          Your call on whether we’ll need a back-up option in 2019 or whether Danger returns to his 130 average and perma-captain form. I reckon Cripps, Gawn, Grundy and Macrae will offer many captain-level scores this season.


    2. Jack Macrae, 2018 JLT series:

      113 v Hawthorn (23 possessions, 2 goals)
      82 v Collingwood (27 possessions)


  3. Billing’s had one job today, one simple task… to stink it up so I could cross him off my list once n for all! But instead he gives me a 2 week headache. Rd 1 cannot come fast enough.


    1. Tough question. I’m leaning towards Smith. No Luke Brown to take lockouts for the first part of the season. Although he’s known to be a bit of a downhill skier Adelaide have a relatively easy draw especially early and should see plenty of wins.
      Roberton on the other hand is playing in a defence with a few key backs missing (I didn’t realise how tall he was 194cm!) and could potentially be asked to play a lockdown role as he’s done previously. I don’t think he’s a bad selection however and if that extra 30k downgrade allows you to upgrade a Caldwell to a Walsh it could be well worth it.


  4. Anyone else getting worried about rookies atm? Parker, Hind, Collins, Burgess not projecting as well as expected.


    1. Yep. With Bewley not playing, so many spudding it up in JLT and expecting Port to start 3 rookies in R1 (yeh,sure)… things are looking grim.
      I might have to include Walsh after all. 🙂
      Currently modeling a Gawn/Grundy/mid-price starting squad … with maybe only 10 rookies to start R1. I’m excluding the no-value Rozee, Lukosius, King, Thomas, CJones et el.. and a couple of the mid-prices are spudding it too eg Miles…


      1. Port will absolutely be playing 3 in round 1, the question is whether we play 4. Have a listen to Ken’s press conference and he says just that. Rozee, Butters and Drew have all cemented their spots. Duursma has more competition and missed quite a few kicks this week but looks the goods too.

        I will however acknowledge the concern that Wines returning could push out Drew but I think there’s a fair chance a lot happens and changes before then.


    2. A part from Port and Carlton, I cannot see the rookies that can be:
      -Guaranteed to start round one
      -Have job security
      – Can score consistently enough to generate enough cashola b4 byes.
      Who else do we have so far? under 200k?


        1. Ryder injured as well they won’t play another ruckmen while he is gone there’s plenty of spots. Injuries happen week to week as well.


    3. Yep, I’m currently running Walsh, Cousins and god help me Darcy Moore. If Moore goes down injured in the first 5 minutes of round 1 at least you’ll be able to hold the funds until rd 3 and choose the best rookie who you didn’t pick up originally.


    4. It is looking uuuuugly! Francis Watson out for west coast too. Bewley in, but being a late in isn’t very promising…


  5. Just appeared on broadcast-
    J Steele 116
    J Dunkley 107
    J Macrae 104
    M Bontempelli 95
    T Liberatore 87
    J Billings 80
    D Roberton 68
    T McLean 67
    J Gresham 63


      1. There’s 4 extra players each team taking points, so points will be a bit lower. If you pick Roberton, you should expect an average of 80, but secretly hope for of average of 90+.


            1. Have to wait and see, it’s obviously a serious condition he’s got and they won’t take any chances with a player’s health like that.


              1. Let’s say he doesn’t get up for round 1, and there aren’t any good rookies to which he could be downgraded. Let’s say you also already have Williams and Newman. What should we do then? Find the cash from somewhere and upgrade him to a recognized premium? Swap him out for a similarly priced speculative pick like Weitering, D. Cuningham, or J. Ridley? Go halfway between the two and find the cash to turn him into a safer but still somewhat speculative mid-pricer, like Smith or Milera?


                1. Cunningham or Ridley, or see if you can find the money for Brodie Smith.

                  Ridley’s long term job security will be shaky, but short term Essendon still have a lot of defensive injuries and he has just pumped out 2 x 90 at $223k


  6. St Kilda’s doctors had to address the playing group to allay serious fears over Dylan Roberton. After a heart scare last year, Roberton felt “wonky” post-game.


    Josh Dunkley 107
    Jack Macrae 104
    Sam Lloyd 101
    Marcus Bontempelli 96
    Mitch Wallis 89
    Tom Liberatore 87
    Tim English 85
    Hayden Crozier 85
    Lachie Hunter 76
    Aaron Naughton 68
    Dale Morris 68
    Toby McLean 66
    Bailey Williams 65
    Easton Wood 63
    Zaine Cordy 61
    Taylor Duryea 60
    Caleb Daniel 52
    Jackson Trengove 50
    Josh Schache 47
    Bailey Smith 41
    Billy Gowers 31
    Will Hayes 29
    Matthew Suckling 26
    Ed Richards 23
    Lachlan Young 9

    Jack Newnes 117
    Jack Steele 115
    Rowan Marshall 112
    Tim Membrey 108
    Shane Savage 102
    Sebastian Ross 101
    Luke Dunstan 99
    Jack Sinclair 80
    Jack Billings 80
    Jarryn Geary 73
    Ben Long 72
    Hunter Clark 70
    Dylan Roberton 68
    Jade Gresham 67
    Josh Bruce 64
    Josh Battle 61
    Darragh Joyce 53
    Jimmy Webster 51
    Dean Kent 49
    Matthew Parker 36
    Jack Lonie 35
    Nick Hind 29
    Ed Phillips 27
    Paddy McCartin 27
    Callum Wilkie 18


    1. TOG %:

      Josh Dunkley: 75
      Lachie Hunter: 88
      Jack Macrae: 81
      Mitch Wallis: 74
      Sam Lloyd: 78
      Marcus Bontempelli: 89
      Hayden Crozier: 83
      Tom Liberatore: 71
      Aaron Naughton: 80
      Toby McLean: 80
      Bailey Williams: 80
      Josh Schache: 76
      Easton Wood: 82
      Tim English: 45
      Jackson Trengove: 40
      Caleb Daniel: 83
      Taylor Duryea: 84
      Dale Morris: 91
      Will Hayes: 47
      Zaine Cordy: 97
      Bailey Smith: 46
      Matthew Suckling: 74
      Billy Gowers: 66
      Ed Richards: 69
      Lachlan Young: 21
      Fergus Greene: 0

      ST. KILDA
      Rowan Marshall: 86
      Jack Steele: 85
      Jack Newnes: 82
      Jack Billings: 81
      Luke Dunstan: 63
      Shane Savage: 89
      Tim Membrey: 85
      Dylan Roberton: 87
      Sebastian Ross: 79
      Hunter Clark: 59
      Josh Battle: 84
      Jarryn Geary: 87
      Jade Gresham: 72
      Jack Sinclair: 77
      Darragh Joyce: 83
      Jimmy Webster: 83
      Dean Kent: 72
      Josh Bruce: 82
      Ben Long: 62
      Jack Lonie: 85
      Matthew Parker: 75
      Paddy McCartin: 30
      Nick Hind: 53
      Ed Phillips: 31
      Callum Wilkie: 29
      Nathan Brown: 0


  8. Cunningham or Ridley, or see if you can find the money for Brodie Smith.

    Ridley’s long term job security will be shaky, but short term Essendon still have a lot of defensive injuries and he has just pumped out 2 x 90 at $223k


  9. Swap him out for a similarly priced speculative pick like Weitering, D. Cuningham, or J. Ridley? Go halfway between the two and find the cash to turn him into a safer but still somewhat speculative mid-pricer, like Smith or Milera?



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