Lisa, insightful regular and top of the SCT Group in 2018, asked whether coaches intend to start “The Big Four” of Lloyd, Neale, Gawn and Grundy in 2021. Last year The Big Four were comfortably the preeminent picks in their respective positions:
Lloyd averaged +14.9 more points than his closest competitor, averaging 122.2 from a full season, only dipping below the ton (100) once and smashing out 130+ 7 times with a high of 157
Neale punished those who didn’t start in 2020 by opening with 157, 171 and 166, going on to play every game and to put 2nd and 3rd in Steele and Oliver away but 200~ total points and +12 points on average for 134.4
Gawn faced issues with injury in a condensed season carrying his team but nevertheless averaged a monstrous, competition high 139.9, cracked 180+ twice and managed to score more total points than every other ruck bar Grundy from only 14 games
Grundy had an off-season in 2020 battling injury and hub grievances but despite being down from two prior years of 130.5, he still played every game at a 120.7 average and only dipped below the ton twice
That’s the good, but now the bad and the ugly: starting the Big Four in 2021 will cost you $2,777,800 with Lloyd at $656.4k, Neale at $721.8k, Gawn at $751.4k and Grundy at $648.2k. I had to double check I added that up correctly, and yes – starting Lloyd, Neale, Gawn and Grundy will require more than a quarter of your starting salary cap. Grundy’s priced similarly to previous years, however over 650k for a DEF is the most I’ve seen in a while and 700k+ for any player always make coaches gulp.
With all that in mind:
Lisa laid out the binary associated with starting or omitting The Big Four really succinctly, specifically asking:
“By [starting The Big Four], it equates to having only 12 premiums (with a premium in this instance being a $500k plus player). Pondering the dilemma – does the option of being able to start with 2 or 3 extra premiums by NOT starting with them, outweigh NOT having them and the scores we hope they will score?”.
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