Uncharted Territory – Round 23

Written by The Salamander on August 20 2021

Clayton Oliver has averaged 122 points this season.

What has that meant week-to-week for his coaches, though? After all, a SuperCoach average is just that: an average. Coaches aren’t getting exactly 122 points every week:

This got me thinking a little bit about the different ways you could look at/think about this kind of thing.

One way to do it is to look at how often a player’s score falls into various ranges:

This makes for a good comparison with a more inherently up-and-down player, like a key forward:

Sometimes, though, there’s more going on than mere week-to-week ups and downs; sometimes a player’s typical output will meaningfully change throughout the season. Consider Darcy Parish:

Not much to write home about for the first six weeks, then bang – suddenly the prospect of having him in our midfields became radically different after he moved into the Bomber’s midfield.

Coaches who paid good money to bring him in late in the season will likely have been a tad disappointed, however.

Brayden Maynard’s 2021 output also benefits from this sort of perspective:

A sub-par start to the season had those who started him thinking of trading him out, but those who stuck with him – or who brought him in while he was cheap – have since done very well from it.

The key takeaway here, I think, is that it doesn’t actually matter what a player averages for the season – what matters is what they average during the period in which they are in your team.

This probably won’t help much with winning your Grand Finals this week, but it might be something to think about as you cast your mind ahead to next year.


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

3 thoughts on “Uncharted Territory – Round 23”

  1. Thank you Sal, for all your great posts throughout the year.

    Appreciate all your hard work in making SCT a fantastic site.




Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *